Climate models are getting it wrong! What's going on?

Modern climate models are incredibly sophisticated machines. And with the advent of artificial intelligence they're getting better all the time. But they're still not able to accurately reflect what's actually going on in the real world. So, should we be relying on them any more?

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Reference links :

New article published 14.3.25

The Atlantic - original article by Zoë Schlanger

New York Times article by Gavin Schmidt and Zeke Hausfather

PNAS article on global hotspots

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[edprotas]

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." -- Upton Sinclair

[Peter-Frankston]

Government in Australia seems to suffer from chronic stupidity. Suburbs with trees are degrees cooler in summer. So new suburbs are treeless. The nation is swamped with immigrants without enough homes for the population. So the push to build new homes ends up with poor planning and design. Sydney is a sea of black roofs, in areas that can get to 46 C in summer. A simple change of code to mandate light coloured roofing would be a useful change.

Ceasing the use of fossil fuels will take a huge effort and take years. Changing roof colour and limiting tree removal is as good as instant. A small step but enough small steps will help dramatically.

[victorbraun]

Great work. I am sending links to your videos to many who should be aware of the great work you do in analysing the future for us - both bleak and optimistic. Don’t ever retire!

[Lokidog]

As always thanks for your video, thoughtful. But I think Gus Speth had the problem nailed years ago:
"I used to think the top environmental problems were biodiversity loss, ecosystems collapse and climate change. I thought that with 30 years of good science we could address those problems. But I was wrong. The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy… and to deal with those we need a spiritual and cultural transformation and we scientists, don´t know how to do that."

[FurtiveSkeptical]

Predatory greed is the latest pandemic.
Too much money makes a person numb, ignorant, stupid and evil.

[AITalks-vu]

It's not so much about educating people about the science of climate change but to educate them on how to deal with world leaders who could care less about the science.

[liamtaylor]

We don't need to know precisely how the cabin will collapse, how our bodies will be dismembered, to know a plane crash is very bad.

[bill]

Please note Eunice Foote published a paper in 1856, "notable for demonstrating the absorption of heat by CO2 and water vapor and hypothesizing that changing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere would alter the climate. It was the first known publication in a scientific journal by an American woman in the field of physics." This was decades before Arrhenius made his comments. So, please do give some credit where it is due.

[paulgrove]

I have two kids, teenagers. And I'm getting the feeling that their quality of life will be lower than mine. We are it. This was the high point of modern civilization.

[bobtbtownsend]

There are so many YouTube producers out there who should absolutely watch your videos to see just how it should be done. Brilliantly effortless. Bravo.

[redpike]

The earliest paper linking atmospheric CO2 concentrations to global warming appears to have been published in The American Journal of Science in 1856, authored by Eunice Foote. Mostly overlooked, and a great deal of difficulty getting published, because she was a woman.

[someguy-kh]

Our leaders haven't been making poorly informed decisions for decades. They have been doing that for millennia. They will continue to do it for as long as there are leaders. All they care about is power and money. The current economy of a country is thousands more times important to them than the possible collapse in a century.

[mavisharris]

Here in the heart of the madhouse (the USA), many of us are trying to do what we can to safeguard our properties, our community, and keep educating ourselves. Trump ordered NOAA to stop publishing critical information and I believe it's on his list to defund/eliminate. I'm planting shrubs that are wind resilient, improving the greenhouse and garden, and planting erosion control plants on our banks. It is something. As a 63 year old woman living on my own all I can say is how grateful I am that I grew up on a farm in rural northern Vermont.

[Artfull]

I think fine tuning climate models, when the world is doing nothing about controlling carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, is like carefully calculating your speed after you jump out of a plane without a parachute.

[indricotherium]

There is actually a growing sense that Western politicians are rowing back on environmentally sustainability issues. It's hardly surprising. They've done a great job of trashing their economies - why expect inconsistency?

[EvanBC]

Excellent video! Now, I am a Machine Learning Scientist, not a Climate Scientist, and I must say that all the fine-tuning in the world won't make a difference if we don't get plentiful and high-density data (spatio-temporally, as well as auxiliary data). That NOAA is underfunded is a crime against Humanity!

[filippoleombruno]

The only thing that seems to matter to modern humans is money, I am 60 yo, both my grandparents never owned or drove cars, and only spent a few years of their life working for wages, they raised happy well adjusted families, and lived to a reasonable age.
Our generation will fight for servitude as if our existence depends on it.

[rosamrc]

Beautifully done! Let us all remember that before Arrhenius a scientist woman Eunice Newton Foote in 1856 had already researched and predicted the warming effects of CO2

[marcdefaoite]

I see the deniers have discovered this channel and are populating the comment section. This is a good thing, because the algorithm sees it as engagement, which helps Dave's work meet more eyes (and presumably the minds behind them). But engaging with these deniers is a waste of time. They aren't interested in being convinced and they will only sap your energy. Better to report as misinformation the most blatant offenders and perhaps boost the algorithm more by adding a fresh comment of your own. Thanks, as always, for all the hard work Dave.

[charlesblithfield]

I learned about climate change in 1976. I wrote lesson plans on it in the late 80s. I visited the high Arctic in 1997 to Auyuittuq - “ the land that never melts” in Inuktitut. After seeing the melting glaciers there I decided to never fly again (don’t get me going on Aviation and the climate crisis - I think it’s our most dangerous activity and have wrote a detailed magazine article about why that the publisher ultimately rejected) I asked my Finance Minister in 2004, live on our country’s most popular evening newscast when people watched such things still (Canada - The National), why there was no money for climate mitigation or adaptation. In the past 20 years all I have seen is greenwashing with very little real commitment by individuals, companies or nations. Today I think we are ROYALLY FXXCKED..