This Climate Graph has a Nasty Secret

I love talking about things that climate scientists don’t want to talk about, and today I have a fun example. It's the reason why all those climate change graphs you've seen talk about a "temperature anomaly" rather than an absolute temperature.

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#science #sciencenews #climate #climatescience

[elrobo]

One thing I learned in college statistics classes is "statistics don't lie, but liars use statistics".

[ericwalstrand]

All i know is, 50 years ago when i was in grade school, they told us we would be in an Ice Age now and allbthe oil would be used up.

[johnbolt]

So I have been plotting my local temperatures on a spreadsheet for 32 years and what I have found out is NOTHING has changed

[alexanderlindsey]

The problem with their model is it hasnt predicted anything, its been periodically adjusted to fit observation.

[kelvaris]

The problem is simple. That report is compilers by activists, not scientists.

[Guy.pop]

I like how people say I'm an engineer or scientist and everyone is supposed to take what they say as fact. I have worked with 1000's of engineers stupid runs through the ranks like every other profession

[bashkillszombies]

Never forget that 90%+ of all seaborn measuring stations were run by the CSIRO, and they had to be taken to the High Court of Australia to stop hard limiting their thermometers at 0C in regions that drop to -20C routinely during winter.

[thcnwnu]

The projected deaths model for the Sars Covid 2 model should tell you that basing policy on models is a very bad idea. The consequences are brutal.🏴‍☠

[scottt]

According to NASA the hottest July on record for the US in the last 174 years was in 2023. That calculation used the Mean Temperature Departures from the Average. However, The Great Heat Wave of July 1936 was actually hotter with the absolute temperatures across the US much hotter than in 2023 (and over 5, 000 people died from it).

[walterfristoe]

I don't like mean estimates, I prefer nice estimates.

[haroldgreen]

I'm not going to debate climate change but state a couple of facts. Houston Texas. One of the largest heat islands in the US. During the summer warm fronts blow in from the gulf of mexico. They reach houston and blow the city heated air north. Just north of houston is located a major airport and that's where they relocated the temp. reporting station. The fact that the airport has thousands of tons of concrete runways and a steady cue of air liners landing and taking off means jet engines producing heat 24 hrs a day. It's no surprise to me that houston's high temps have risen over the years from when the reporting station was relocated.

[williamtyndale]

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has solved the problem of modelling... it is revising DOWN all previously high temperatures so that future highes will be record breaking and unprecedented

[mga]

[4:08] Had this conversation with my mom recently. She's in her 80s, I'm 46 with three kids (7-10).
Basically went:
Me: When will it feel like I really know what the hell I'm doing?
Her: I don't know. I'll tell you when I get there.

[koboDresden]

I am a mathematician by degree and the hardest part of making a graph is guessing the audiences' level of knowledge. For example I always zoom the graph to the overall min-max values of its' functions - and I expect the reader to know that by reading the graph labels. But most people see that as a manipulative technique, even if the labels are not omitted. And even if you emphasize that in text, most don't read that at all. And yes, there are those who actually manipulate the data in bad faith.

[blaisemorris]

Lots of Predictions based on those models in the horror movie An Inconvenient Truth....how many were right ?, 0 is the number, so we carry on with that model ? Yes ! Why ? well, trust the Science !

[beyfenn]

Wouldn't the vast difference in the models indicate that there is a variable missing?

[randycook]

As a former Operations Research/Systems Analysis (ORSA) technician, The first thing you are taught is that data can be easily misinterpreted. People also use statistics to lie. You must always verify the underlining assumptions used to analysis the data. As you pointed out, climate specialist intentionally make their data and assumptions hard to validate. They also tend to select time durations where the data supports their desired theory.

[pklausspk]

4:20 is the main issue in my life. I'm still waiting for an adult to explain the big plan to me. I'm in my 60ies and begin to assume this won't happen.

[kirklaird]

It is worth asking this: If the climate is warming as much as they claim, then why are sea levels continuing to rise at the same 1.7 to 1.8 mm/yr as they have, pretty much consistently, since the mid 1800s. Those numbers come from analysis of tide gauge data from NOAA's Tides and Currents Office and Britain's Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level.

[AmericanPatriotAP]

The temperatures have been going up and down for millions of years. Back in the Cretaceous time ( 65 million years ago) the temperatures were much higher. The sun is the biggest reason for the temperature changes.