Steven Koonin on The Limitations of Climate Change Models

Steven Koonin reviews the state of climate science, focusing on data trends, climate models, and the uncertainties involved. He highlights issues with climate models, including their high sensitivity and inability to accurately reproduce historical temperature changes, cautioning against relying on inaccurate model projections.

[richardanthony]

Thank you Dr. Koonin. As an electricity supply engineer with a strong interest in physics and environmental impacts of energy production, I have been trying to explain these same climate and weather fallacies, especially the absence of a "crisis" and the immorality of premature "net zero" policies, to friends and professional associates for years. 
My career limiting reward was to be told that I am "on the wrong side of history" and a "denier" of "the science" by people who (ironically) refused to discuss climate issues at any scientific level, preferring to lazily argue from (political) authority. Given your impressive credentials I am hopeful that many policy makers will listen to your sound advice and realize the laputan foolishness of the rush to net zero policies being imposed in North America and Europe.

[bthyner]

Thank you so much for the open discussion you can't even talk about with most people and answering questions i have had for a long time.

[abuyusef]

I’ve listened to SK and read his publications now and can see he has a real thorough grip on the subject. Here he pulls out a number of key points from his extensive knowledge that really nail it for the man in the street. Why o why can’t our politicians and policy makers just listen to an expert for once rather than teenage activists?!

[roblouw]

When are enough people going to start listening to genuine experts like Steve Koonin? Everybody should read his book 'Unsettled".

[nathanngumi]

A great lecture! I enjoyed his book Unsettled. The world needs to proceed very carefully on how the negative effects of climate change are dealt with. Mistakes and politically-induced missteps can be fatal.

[CS-gghx]

The path to so-called ‘net zero’ has already been set. With trillions already spent and many more trillions committed, there is no way politicians and governments will allow any deviation from current policy. It would be an admission that they were wrong and that can’t be allowed, at any cost.

[kingifrit]

every generation thinks they are in the end of days. this one doesn't strike me as much

[climateroulette]

At least this channel doesn’t shadow ban dissenters, give ‘em some cred for that.

[christianleblanc]

Re cooking with dung, etc., here in Ecuador natural gas is subsidized to encourage its use instead of dung, wood, ag waste, and charcoal.

[gastaotaveira]

A great summary of the current state of climate science. A must see.

[saltburner]

Sadly, too many prefer Grete's adolescent hysteria to Steve's detailed science.

[TheRealStevoBrown]

It was really really really cool to be able to hear someone coughing through the entire talk. I like that a lot and I wish more talks had it.

[michaelhiggins]

Thank you Dr. Koonin! What ever happened to the Academies commitment to truth?

[andrewlm]

I think a great point is made here on the value of transparency. The idea that the public can’t handle ambiguity and that a “noble lie” to simplify the presentation of the climate problem is justified is just sowing distrust as people see through the lie. You’ve then lost the ability to have people listen to you when you are more truthful.

The earth and it’s climate are a complex machine - we need to understand it and those dedicating their careers to that pursuit do humanity a great service. There is nothing wrong with acknowledging that we have more to learn or to suggest that, even though we don’t know everything, there are actions that we should consider taking based on our current, imperfect, understanding

[tobyw]

What is the upper efficiency limit of photovoltaic power? Virtually everyone has a roof.
And Kudos to Dr Steve Koonin for his thoughtful presentation!

[CSGATI]

They can be programed to prove or disprove your point. They also leave out so many variables they are not accurate.

[lawrenceralph]

Uncalibrated, unverified models of complex systems have greater uncertainty than those that can be verified by comparing predictions to outcomes.

[tomwinstanley]

Adding to what others have said, "Unsettled" is a brilliant book and well worth the time and money.

[anabolicamaranth]

Ignore the models. The most fundamental, informative climate metric is earth energy imbalance. More solar energy coming in than is being radiated out and you have a warming planet. EEI was around .5 Watts/sq meter in 2000 and has steadily risen to 1.92 W in June 2023. About .2 of this is from increased solar output. Bottom line is 1.92 guarantees a lot of warming ahead, it is a simple matter of physics. A pot of water on a burner with more energy coming in than what is being radiated out will increase in temp. No model needed.

[masada]

Thanks for a very enlightening lecture.