Ukrainian Counteroffensive - Coming Success or Looming Failure?

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Accounts to follow for accurate war coverage (non-exhaustive list):

[AdamSomething]

Receive an Amazing New Player Pack, only available for the next 30 days! Thanks to Conflict of Nations for sponsoring the video.

[cerealisasoup]

The fact that this guy got sponsored by a strategy war game while talking about an ongoing war is insane.

[ReySchultz]

WW2 took 6 years to end.

The fact of the matter is war takes time. When you're living through a historic moment, sure feels like forever doesn't it?

[robertking]

The biggest mistake that was made by Ukraine's allies imo happened after Ukraine had liberated Kherson. It happened in November of 2022, Ukraine has just launched an enormously successful offensive in the east and liberated the city of Kherson(the only regional center Russia was able to capture). After that, Russia's morale plummeted, many pro-Kremlin bloggers started whining over inevitable loss, Putin started mobilization and tens of thousands of Russians started escaping to neighboring countries. Instead of capitalizing on that momentum, the west spent months arguing over sending tanks and heavy equipment, refused to send F-16s and long range missiles giving Russia necessary time to build up defenses which it didn't have in November and train their troops to try and resist the Ukrainian attempt to liberate its'land. That's the problem that brought us in such a complicated situation where ukrainians have to storm well fortified Russian positions making gains far slower than they could have if their western allies didn't waste so much time on childlike arguments like "hey America, I'll send Leopard-2s to Ukraine buuuut only if you send your Abrams tanks"

[adamboyd]

Re: 12:13 It's a lot easier to replace a tank than a trained tank crew, and walking away from a defeat can be a powerful lesson. This is why ensuring crew survivability, even at the cost of combat performance, is so important. (Of course, the US approach is to keep the combat performance, and just spend more to get crew survivability)

[archvaldor]

The media has been like "Ukraine not instantly destroying much larger nation" for months now.

[Pandamasque]

3:24 more precisely, that was a number of vehicles damaged by landmines after a UK-supplied de-mining vehicle failed to effectively clear mines in a safe corridor that it was supposed to create for a breakthrough. The troops had to abandon the damaged vehicles and retreat. At least some of those have been recovered later, repaired and are back in service.
Reportedly, the density and size of minefields created by Russians on their 1st defensive line is unlike anything any army has ever encountered.

[brien]

Without air superiority, modern warfare looks more like WW1 than WW2. It will look like stalemate until one side breaks through.

[HeavenlyBrush]

Thank you for calling out sushko, the guy is completely unhinged and would spread bonkers propaganda without checking it even for a second.
Also one other thing worth mentioning regarding the shift in ukrainian strategy, they've been putting a lot more effort into their counter battery than previously, utilizing gmlrs to hit specific russian artillery pieces and positions. Both ukrainian government and russian mil vlogger sources noted that and i think it's a pretty important thing to consider. Russian defenses rely on artillery just as much as those fortifications themselves, heavy attrition of artillery has a potential to create openings for ukraine to exploit as well.

[terencetan]

I always love how the West tells Ukraine to fight like NATO but never gives them enough toys to do so

[RDude_]

It's always important to know, that an offensive against a fortified line is extremely hard and difficult.
A breakthrough without bigger losses is basically impossible.
Not even mentioning the ammo shortages, lack of long range rockets or not having air superiority.

It's gonna be intense and bloody.
Best regards for the ukrainian soldier's

Edit: Many tankies and Z Fans here

[andremrh]

Love that PowerPoint presentation videos are now just referred as "Perun-style".

Aussies are taking over the world mates.

[UtaShirokage]

This is so insanely insensitive. Getting a war game sponsor for a video about a real war? Are you insane? You know that dozens and hundreds are dying regularly right???

[MultiSciGeek]

Really not happy about Adam taking sponsorship from these stupid apps. Like I was just waiting for him to drop a video criticising modern capitalism and the stupid sponsorships youtubers take instead of focusing on quality and patreon, aka the TikTok model of consumption but alas, nobody is perfect, and it can be hard to analyse your own biases.

[BSideWasTaken]

That sponsor was an... interesting choice, Adam.
Edit: this was meant as a joke folx please chill

[playerGR]

So this video is a definition of copium

[demos]

No plan survives contact with the enemy, adapt, persevere, win.

[stayniftyGuyFaceMannPersonDude]

Perun really is an amazing channel that deserves a sub. That man puts so much effort into his videos that militaries actually use his videos for educational purposes and briefs ... no bs, the dude is a professional.

[martinsriber]

Westerners slowly send equipment and then they complain counteroffensive is slow. Well, maybe it would go much faster if Russians didn't get plenty of time to fortify...

[Praxics]

12:00 Lately a lot of people call the Leopard crap and a failure. It got taken out in Syria and in Ukraine therefore bad tank. All I see is that the Leopard holds up. Admittedly I don't know who died or got injured. However from videos out of Syria you can clearly see crew leaving the tanks after being hit, in Ukraine you can't see dead crew anywhere near a Leopard. The completely disintegrated Leopards in Syria afaik got airstriked by Turkey to prevent capture. In Ukraine we have seen Lancet drones hit Leopards and PzH2000 and the crew got out and was fine.
Yes the tank gets taken out but the important part is the trained crew survives. The tank can often be repaired if recovered. If the crew is dead at the first encounter they can't learn, improve and pass on their experience.
Russian tanks often kill their crew when hit due to the open ammunition carousels of the auto loader. However the fact remains a hit that takes out a T-80 probably also takes out a Leopard and here is the kicker it probably also takes out an Abrams. So all those waiting for the Abrams to bulldoze the defensive lines will probably be very disappointed.
The difference is the Leopard crew has a good chance to survive a hit, the T-80 crew has a good chance to becomes cosmonauts.