Commercial real estate crash will be as least as bad as 2008 financial crisis, says Patrick Carroll

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[darnellcapriccioso]

I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

[alicemendoza]

I’m » hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2024. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

[alicebenard]

I began my investment journey at the age of 38, primarily through hard work and dedication. Now at the age of 42, I am thrilled to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time. This success reinforces the importance of the advice mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth, but rather ensuring long-term financial prosperity.

[Nernst]

I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $27000 this nov. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserve

[bobbymainz]

The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy, or not?

[raynoldgrey]

In spite of how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, there is already an excessive amount of demand waiting to absorb it, which is another reason it's less likely to happen that way. This forecast was not made in 2008, at least not by the general public, as I will explain below. The ownership rate peaked in 2004, according to the other comment. We reached a peak in the second quarter of 2020 and are currently at the median level. From 2008 to 2012, it fell by 3%, and in the second quarter of 2020, it dropped from 68 to 65.

[ctrl-shift-run]

Instead of forcing people back to the office to do unproductive work, let them come in when they need to. Convert the excess office space into residential units / co-living spaces. Feels like we're stuck in a mid 20th century mindset.

[trazzpalmer]

In light of the impending recession and the fact that inflation is still far higher than the Fed's 2% target, several of the most prominent market analysts have been expressing their views on how terrible they believe the next downturn will be and how far stocks may have to fall. I need advice on what investments to make because I'm attempting to create a portfolio for my children that will at least be $850k in value.

[paulkersey]

This is the guy who spat in his waiters face after trying to hit on a woman with her date at the table. A truly magnificent man. I'd love to meet him sometime.

[janders]

Another work from home factor other than higher productivity, less time and money wasted on transit (used to commute 3-4 hours a day) is crime. I done with Chicago, New York, and SATX. My spouse still travels, unfortunately, but not as often. Firms need to start providing REAL security because the PD isn’t responding.

[sammiller]

Nice content! Few years back i was assistant to a wealthy pen artist and within the short period i worked with him i observed that he had quite a chunk of investment everywhere, stocks, crypto, dividend investing to name a few, so he had revenues coming in from all angles. And in a year his worth doubled. With this i learned that the rich stay rich by investing.

[wdahlstrom]

Absolutely correct. High Interest rates are 20% of the problem. Society is empowered by technology that makes office space 50% less important. The handful of office sales Q1 have been for 50% of what the sellers paid last cycle. Why would a bank lend today if values are falling so drastically. Conversion to apartments is not viable for 90% of existing office buildings. Demolition on a mass scale may be required. Property tax revenue from CRE will drop drastically in the coming years as litigated valuation challenges work through the courts. School budgets are entirely funded by property taxes in the US. Public safety budgets will be under pressure. And what about a city’s need to fund massive urban renewal? Where is that money coming from?

[almac]

Going back into an office now is like going back to using a fax machine once you've used email.

[jasonmelbaus]

Is there not a shortage of residential housing? Isn't that the main reason for the rental price crisis for people renting? Can't the excess office space be converted to residential apartments?

[rynebozzell]

Short-sighted to think people are going back to office cubicles. Why would they? As commercial real estate property value falls, repurpose them for modern residential housing - smart homes. Increase supply. Decrease overall housing costs. They're already wired and ready for occupancy.

[ChristopherWalkenPUA]

Boo hoo....the easy money years are over and the real estate guys are

[AtlanticIslander]

So to rephrase, office space is in deep trouble while multifamily is not, and therefore not all CRE is a disaster. Especially when you factor in lower rates by next year. Thanks for not trying to create fear…

[stevencole]

I don't see how it matters working part time at home for commercial real estate. If your in the office 2 or 5 days a week the rent is not going to be less at 2 days . Rich guys don't appear to be any smarter than anyone else . The only difference is they have more money to absorb a downturn .

[kumarsingh]

Our economy isn't going to recover until the housing market finds its footing. The impact of the downturn was starting to feel very real so I sold my home in California and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into diversified investment portfolio. Is this a good time to buy or no? So confused

[adiposerex]

If I had the option to work from home, I would never go back to the office.