Mathematical model of Coronavirus spread in USA.

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[VASL]

I’ve played this game, trick is to be in Madagascar to win

[JohnDlugosz]

5:00 The growth curve cannot continue to be an exponential when a substantial percentage of the population is already infected. You should start with a *Logistic Curve* .
Or, start from scratch: model the 35% as N contact events per day with P probability of passing it along. Then, adjust N by the percentage of still uninfected people in the population while keeping P the same.
This is the same math as why photographic film has a log response, unlike digital sensors. The probability of an incoming photon hitting a crystal that has not already been exposed goes down as the population shifts.

[brokenwolves]

Don't forget to factor in everyone running into supermarkets for toilet paper

[stevepax]

Although your model appears reasonable---it is flawed. The easiest way to see that is to notice that the model quickly predicts more infections than there are people. At best an exponential model only accounts for the onset of the disease. If the spanish flu provides any guide at all, it is that only about half of everyone will catch the disease. Rather than exponential growth you want something resembling logistic growth, but even that would fail to account for the un-homogeneity of people and their habits (surely "self-quarantine" is radically different from "party on the beach") and the fact that most people tend to stay in one geographic location. I think a really good model would at its core describe the volume, geographic distribution, and duration of contaminated space. To actually make such a model would probably requires a simulation based approach.

[theultimatereductionist]

Seriously: ask an actuary. What do the actuarial models say? They are the real experts at this sort of thing. (I took & passed 2 actuarial exams. It was super fun super fascinating math modeling. But, I had no plans in life to work for an insurance company. I am much more interest in doing my own creative work, whether coming up with my own actuarial models or engineering.)

[humblehat]

It's very interesting to watch you do the calculations and see how scientists process data like this.

And thank you for doing research that benefits the good of humanity.

[SSky]

What's worse is that most states haven't implemented any kind of lockdown or quarantine, haven't instituted any rules to reduce the number of workers in the workplace or gathering size and when we talk about between 1 and 2.5% death rate, that ignores the number that will die from the inevitable hospital overload, triage and the number of people who will die from other health emergencies that can't get treatment in an overwhelmed hospital system. Italy's death rate is approaching 10% because of the strain on the healthcare system and America's pace is WORSE than Italy's is. 4 million dead, just in America, will probably end up being the very BEST CASE SCENARIO given how absolutely blasé everyone has been about this.

[scrumtrellecent]

Thunderf00t: 10 to the power of 1 base 9 divided by pi plus 5 minus 3.
Me: Duh, Light Switch?

[ryanwassle]

I'm pretty sure a lot of people's places would have to get broken into for a total infection cuz some of us aren't going outside

[yurikirsanov]

At 15:56 formula is (J19-P20)+(J19-P20) with an explanation of 'Total number who have virus who had it yesterday minus people who have to be taken off the list plus people who had it yesterday people who got better)'. But 'people who got better' is not P20, its 'people who have to be taken off the list', am I correct?

[ApocDevTeam]

Average age of people dying in italy was over 80 years old. In other words, protect your grandparents if you still have them!

[EoThorne]

You know it's bad when TF opens the Excel spreadsheet.

[josefstalin]

So you're saying Trump saved over 4.8 million lives? This estimation was WAY off.

[euphonia]

giving this a "like" feels rather ominous

[skiibo]

5 months later... this didn't age well.

[JaredCollins]

Somehow, watching this guy mess around with an excel sheet is more terrifying than any horror movie I've watched.

[coleblack]

I'm a truck driver. At this point, until they start closing state borders, I've got to be out and about getting loads to places that need them as long as I can. So much damned toilet paper.

[bananian]

I thought the virus would just miraculously go away when there were just 15 cases.

[errorerror]

Wouldn't you expect a logistics curve not a pure exponential when looking at time for total infection?

[EmeraldView]

Let's keep this at under 20, 000 total deaths people.

Stay home!