Epidemics: Untangling The Mysteries of Mathematical Modelling | Dr Yuliya Kyrychko

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“Flattening the curve”, “time to peak”, “pandemic”, “exponential growth” - in recent weeks it was hard to escape these expressions due to the current COVID-19 outbreak. One of the powerful tools behind these terms is the art of mathematical modelling. Mathematical modelling has been used extensively to help predict the development and potential outcomes of recent diseases, such as SARS, Ebola and now COVID-19. So what is mathematically modelling and how is it done? In this talk, I will use simple models to explain the modelling process and show a few examples of their applications.
  1. Sussex Universe
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Комментарии
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A very good explanation of an extremely complex subject. Highly recommended!

yurikagolovsky
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Thank you for the talk; very much enjoyed it =) Clear explanation of SIR models and mathematical modelling of epidemics; nice Q&A session

amritajitendra
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Thank you for interesting information!!!

АлисаБалагланова-мк
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Очень понравился доклад! Глубоко продуман, проработан. Много фактов, рекомендаций. Всем здоровья! Всем привет с Украины!!!

tetyanakyrychko
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this is the question I asked for the Q&A session; I would like to have some explanation about the usefulness of vaccination.. As I understand, the process goes like this, there is an epidemic, scientist study the virus, after a few months they develop a vaccine. people get vaccinated. but then NEXT YEAR the virus has mutated, therefore the new virus is not affected by the old vaccine. Therefore the vaccine is only useful for virus who do not mutate.
The answer was: yes, a very good question.. we see that vaccination is not helpful because the virus mutates and the vaccination is ineffective, but still vaccination is useful and necessary…

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