Wagner's Mutiny - what it means for Putin's Russia (and Coups 101)

The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard.

Despite being closely watched by people around the world - much about the mutiny remains unknown - from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end.

In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be.

Patreon:

Caveats & Comments:

As noted in the video - I don't know the details of what just happened (and likely neither do you) and so the analysis and timeline included here is necessarily based on the best information available to me at time of recording. Future revisions will likely be necessar

All other normal caveats (from information quality to 'this is not financial advice' to non-reliance apply as always

Relevant reading & sources:

Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne - Journal of Peace Research - Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset

Prigozhin charged with mutiny (TASS)

Peskov denying responsibility for Wagner in Africa

Putin backing MoD on Wagner contracts

Reporting on Surovikin

Zolotov on Rosgvardia getting heavy

Reporting on Wagner vs the VKS

On the response to Wagner troops

Putin blasts Wagner as traitors

Bulletin of Atomic science on the Wagner nuclear risk

Reporting on Prigozhin speaking

Included tweet by Tatarigami (details cut off by cropping)

The many Coup accusations of Belarus

Footage of Wagner in Rostov-on-Don

Rumour of early warning of the plot

Rusian propagandist on flexible legal norms

NATO statement on Belarus and Wagner

Included Anatol Lieven article

As normal - my policy is not to link directly to Telegram channels belonging to groups like Wagner or Russian military bloggers as these often contain extremist or prohibited content

Flight tracker of Putin's jet

Prigozhin on defending Belgorod

Reporting on the Wagner taking a senior officer captive

I also extend my thanks to all those on twitter whose content is included here

A special thanks to Tex of BPL for his help hunting down some relevant data.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Wagner Mutiny
00:01:56 — What Am I Talking About
00:04:16 — Rumours & Speculation
00:04:58 — Coups 101
00:10:39 — Rules For A Good One
00:17:11 — The Russian Attempt
00:31:02 — The Days After
00:33:03 — Could It Have Worked
00:36:38 — Conspiracy Theories
00:39:47 — Key Observations
00:47:20 — The Impact Going Forward?
01:04:57 — Conclusions
01:06:15 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Well, that was quite the road trip wasn't it?

The reality is that while it'll be a long, long time before we discover all the details about what happened during those very eventful hours - I think it's worth looking at what we know and asking some critical questions about the mutiny, its chances of success, and what separates simple mutiny from a successful or unsuccessful coup.

I think it's fairly safe to expect that Prigozhin's companies are probably not going to survive/get many juicy MoD contracts going forward however.

Hope you all enjoy.

[bogatyr]

"So let's talk about how to overthrow a government." -Perun reaching the natural conclusion of his character arc.

[My_initials_are_O.G.cuz_I_am]

I knew you'd call this what it was, a mutiny.
Although, I, myself, prefer: "special military insubordination".

[AslanW]

In the words of a fellow internet commenter: "In a fight between Wagner and the Russian MoD, I'm rooting for the fight."

[SinerAthin]

"Sometimes stupid is just stupid"

Such an underrated sentence.

[mrandrews]

The difference between history and fiction is that fiction usually has to make sense.

[fortunecookie]

Premature evacuation and electoral dysfunction are common problems with older autocrats.

[hydrolox]

"and when a foreign power decides that your land is in fact their land, your military can communicate your dispute of their claim in the universal language of high explosive."
One of Peruns sentences of all time.

[colanitower]

44:02 The road to Moscow was empty because the backbone of defense, the T-34, was still in maintenance after the May parade

[dzengrinder]

Your fellow Russian comment section dweller here. Just a couple of things to note here:

- Prigozhin's possible mutiny was called out by Strelkov over a month before it happened, no one paid attention
- Everyone in Russia followed this whole thing, I swear to god, that's the first time I've actually seen everyone talking about something political
- Prigozhin probably demonstrated not only a staggering amount of apathy towards both putin's regime and all possible bloodthirsty actors within it, but also the importance of administrative weight' within the system.
- Most people I've spoken to didn't really care if they would burn kremlin or rublyovka.

What a shitfest it was, and what a time to be alive, truly

[badluck]

There is a lot of criticism of the Russian military, but their summer offensive to capture Rostov-on-Don was impressively quick and with little causalities.

[gjoinolywa]

“I don’t know what happened and neither do you.” Classic. More sources should such humility and honesty.

[polymorphesquirrel]

The joke is: Two years ago, Russian army was the second strongest in the world. Last year, it was second in Ukraine. This year, it is the second one in Russia.

[free_at_last]

Putin's gone from internet strongman to the living embodiment of the "everything is fine, nothing to see here" meme.

[dinozone]

Perun's jokes are, as usual, top notch, but the joke about using Russia using Wagner in Africa to avoid demonetization was simply incredible.

[SpencerHHO]

Some great quotes in this.

Perun: "don't do coups"
"When you finally come to the conclusion that giving a hardened criminal a private army of hardened criminals was not in fact a good idea afterall..."

[Tirak]

At this rate Bandai-Namco is going to start demanding royalties from the Russians, this entire war feels like the plot of an Ace Combat game, complete with unlocking weapons and aircraft, to the Mercenaries who rise up in rebellion against their leaders to seize nuclear weapons. If Prigozhin starts babbling about a world without borders I'm gonna start having some serious questions about simulation theory.

[jloiben]

Wagner: We just began our occupation of the largest city we have been able to take during this special military operation.
Putin: Great! What city?
Wagner: Rostov.
Putin: …

[RmsOceanic]

From what is public knowledge at this time, I think Prigozhin was heavily playing the "Good Tsar Bad Boyar" card. His criticisms of the war were about special interests and looting oligarchs, but stopped short of directly condemning Putin, at most accusing him of being poorly advised. This is a time-honoured thing in Russia, taking something the scale of Bloody Sunday to dispel the image of the leader being infallible. I think Prigozhin began his thunder run in the expectations that Putin would round up Shoigu and Gerasimov, if not others, then as the Good Tsar thank his loyal boyar for pointing out where he'd been misled. But he miscalculated when Putin directly denounced the mutiny, calling it criminal and so on. Which was in turn a terrible political move for Putin, because if you announce a pardon for people you all but declared outlaws 24 hours before, that's a major rebuff of the all powerful image an authoritarian regime usually cultivates, and is hard to square that circle, not for lack of trying. In a sense it looks like they both bluffed while holding trash cards, and as a result they both lose.

[karolinevongunderrode]

Perun asking folk not to stage coups to overthrow their government is downright epic...