Russia's Allies - How will Iran, Syria & North Korea impact the war in Ukraine?

Over the last several months I've spent a great deal of time (and will spend more time) looking at the role that Ukraine's friends and allies have played in supporting its war-effort. This has included the provision of funds, weapons, humanitarian aid and the taking in of millions of Ukrainian refugees.

Against the backdrop of that assistance, it's easy to paint Russia as entirely isolated, a pariah state without friends to turn to.

While it may not have the allies that Ukraine does, that is obviously not entirely true. From Iranian drones to North Korean shells, there are signs that Russia is turning to friendly or allied powers for the tools it needs to carry on its war - and in this episode we look at those nations and what impact they've had so far...and may have in the future.

Patreon:

Further Reading:

Relating to the DPRK:
Example of the 100,000 claim -

US claims on ammunition sales

DPRK denials:

Articles relating to Syria:
The Guardian "20,000 mercenaries" claim -

Putin approving the use of Middle Eastern fighters -

Tracking Syrian losses in the Civil War

Carnegie on the Syrian mercenaries claim -

RE: CENTCOM statement

Recruitment efforts

Iran:
Stoltenberg statement on the potential supply of ballistic missiles:

Western claims on Iranian missile supply:

Iran acknowledging drone shipments:

CSTO:
TASS on Armenian requests for aid:

Caveats:
The supply of weapons or troops by Russia's allies is obviously a matter of great secrecy - as a result, conclusions drawn here are based on available open source information and may not reflect any secret movements or aid

Regarding statements on Iranian or DPRK missile systems - these statements are general and based on assumed or projected paper capabilities. Accurate CEP data on all Iranian missiles compared to Iskander for example is not available.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:03:12 — What Am I Covering?
00:03:49 — Not For Today: The PRC & Russia
00:05:01 — Russia's NATO: The CSTO
00:05:56 — The Commonwealth of Independent States
00:06:46 — Russia's NATO cont.
00:08:23 — Capabilities and Recent History
00:09:44 — Erosion
00:12:16 — DPRK (North Korea)
00:15:35 — Songun's Result
00:17:22 — A Deadly Museum
00:19:27 — Kim's Hundred Thousands
00:21:44 — Ammunition Transfers
00:22:41 — What Could Go?
00:25:25 — Impact & What Next?
00:27:50 — Assad's Syria
00:28:53 — An Ugly War
00:30:19 — Russian Intervention in Syria
00:32:29 — The Syrian Arab Army
00:33:36 — Syria & Ukraine
00:35:09 — The Phantom Mercenaries?
00:37:44 — Impact and What Next?
00:41:36 — Their Own War?
00:42:17 — Iran - Russian and the Islamic Republic
00:44:44 — The Web of Iranian Military Structures
00:47:39 — Iran & Ukraine
00:50:37 — War on the Cheap
00:52:50 — Impact & What Next
00:54:55 — Conclusions
00:57:33 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Every video usually has at least one error that makes it through editing and here it is for this video:

Uzbekistan is a former member of the CSTO, not an active one. Kyrgyzstan is the 6th current active member I mean to mention. I even have a cut slide with an overview of their military capabilities...but somehow missed that one in review.

I also repeatedly refer to Russia receiving "Ukrainian" drones rather than "Iranian" drones from Iran. Russia does receive Ukrainian drones of course, but usually only after they've been shot down or flown into their targets...

Sincere apologies for that one.

[ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Perun really said "it's PowerPointing time!" and then PowerPointed all over our screens.

[mehrdad]

We as Iranians are trying very hard to topple the regime, so hopefully we can soon aid Ukraine instead.
Slava Ukraini

[jean-yvesmead]

"Mom! Can we get some NATO?"
"No son, we have NATO at home."
The NATO at home...

[fatimnster]

I'm a bit let down by the fact that you didn't mention Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan border conflict in the Erosion section. It is a bit more recent than Armenia vs Azerbaijan and is very notable because it was an armed conflict between two CSTO members. It caused calls for leaving CSTO in Kyrgyzstan and the country missed the latest training as a result. This is big because it puts the organisation's credibility into question within CSTO countries.

[michaelramon]

CSTO 2022 Status Report:
- Russia and Belarus are losing a war of choice that they launched against their neighbor.
- Armenia is being shot at by its neighbor.
- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are shooting at EACH OTHER.
- Kazakhstan is recovering from civil unrest and desperately trying to keep its head down.

Sounds like that treaty has, indeed, collectively secured its members.

[christiansomeone]

The saying went „Warsaw pact ist the only military alliance attacking solely its own members“. Same applies for CSTO.

[markb]

Apparently the Russian- Chinese "friendship without limits" does have A LOT of limits. Odd that either party would lie 🤔

[michaelramon]

On the subject of Syrian mercenaries, I recall reading that the Wagner Group has employed Syrians over the years, though usually for non-combat roles like guarding oil fields in Libya. These Syrians tended not to be elite, hardened warriors, but rather desperate men in need of a paycheck in a burned-out husk of a country. And even then, supposedly a lot of them felt mistreated and improperly supplied on their Wagner tours and weren't inclined to sign up again.

I also know that Turkey has deployed Syrian mercenaries in various conflicts, but those are presumably drawn from the anti-Assad side of the conflict.

[pougetguillaume]

Perun: "the CIS"
Me: *uncontrollable giggle*
Perun: "not the star wars one"
Me: :x

[dotwill]

Another Sunday morning. Another lecture I’m excited to listen to!

[Mefostofiles]

Yo Perun, serious high quality content dropping like JDAMs, as usual. Thank you, mate

[ImperiousLeader]

No Syrians or Koreans were hurt in Ukraine during the production of this video 😁 Precise and concise as usual. Top quality assessment. Keep it up Perun!

[Guriezous]

I hope one day you make a video about Transnistria, Moldavia, and the connections of that conflict with the current Russian invasion of Ukraine

[MilesICBarker]

A minor anecdote on ammunition shelf-life: in 1984 I was tasked with disposing of WW1 .303 ammunition - 1916 & 1917 - it was still about 90% viable after 67 years.... but that still equates to 1-2 failures per Bren magazine, which gives you an idea how effective that would (not) be in real use.

[WilliamNeacy]

"The CIS, and no, not the one from Star Wars. " 🤣 I love how he genuinely felt the need to clarify that!

[armaslohemadu]

Yess, my weekly dose of proper journalism and powerpoint presentations

[thomasoliver]

I’d love to see you’re perspective on Arab military underperformance whether it’s culture like armies of the sand suggest or poor Soviet tactics/equipment.
Or maybe Armenia-Azerbaijan
Anyway keep up the best geopolitics content on YouTube !

[sniur]

2:47 Not only is belarus supplying weapons, but they're also allowing their territory as routes for their soldiers to move through, I'd say that is also pretty important!

[ancientlaserrifle]

every single one of your videos is so astonishing. so much depth, so much nuances.
it's not often, long videos get much views on youtube. one can only achieve that with great content.

and all of that in mostly one sitting? without script?

keep up the awsome work!