Ukraine War Q&A: What Happened to the 500k Russian Soldiers? || Peter Zeihan

Question number one of the series is...what happened to the half million Russian soldiers I predicted would hit the battlefield by June?

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#ukrainewar #ukraine #russia

[AB-srmc]

shoigu wasnt selected for his skills as a general, he was selected because he is 100% obedient to Putin. that goes for Gerasimov as well. Putin probably made a death pact with these two so he can control the military without having to worry about his generals shiving him in the back.

[jeffreymcfadden]

Calling the Wagner chief incompetent is unfair.
After all, he ran a hot dog stand in St. Petersburg. (That is where he met Putin)

[thomas]

Yevgeny Prigozhin is about as good at leading an Army as Peter Zeihan is at pronouncing his name 😂

[wyominghome]

Reliable data about your opponent's strengths and losses seems to be rare in war time. During the Battle of Britain the British consistently overestimated the strength of the Luftwaffe and the Germans consistently underestimated the strength of the RAF. The result was that the Brits worked like hell to replace downed aircraft and crews and were able to not only recover quickly but actually grow in strength during the bombing. The Germans, on the other hand, were lackadaisical about regrouping, failed to recover from their losses in the air, and by some reports moved on to the Blitz because they were convinced that their bombing of military targets had the RAF on its last legs. Reliable figures on air force strengths and losses on both sides were apparently not available until after the war.

[wilzwalkabout]

I worked in Russia for a year and one takeaway is that Russians will follow your lead 99% of the time, so it is no surprise that a caterer is in charge of the war effort. You have to have the balls to step up because you may become the scape goat & I will always remember the motto of the group I worked with: "I will pretend to work and you will pretend to pay me"...mozhet byt'

[daveb]

Thanks for taking the time to answer that excellent question Mr Zeihan :) Colorado always looks good! Love from Scotland

[quantummotion]

There's a great Youtube Channel by an Aussie fellow nicknamed Perun where he talks about corruption in the Russian military. Two big takeaways from the episode 1) the skimming and theft happens at ALL levels, 2) there's a rumor that when Russian troops were doing exercises in Belarus just before the actual invasion, the ground commanders traded diesel fuel with local farmers for fresh food, to replace the shoddy and past due date of the combat rations. The ground commanders themselves did not realize they were invading Ukraine, thus were sent in having traded away most of their fuel (and thus explaining why many military vehicles ran out of fuel in the initial invasion). Again, this is a rumor, but with corruption rife up and down the ranks - such a rumor being reality should not be surprising.

[SQRH]

Hey Peter, how's that counter offensive going?

[caffeinelife]

Can you provide the sourcing for the information you provide in these videos please?

[SuperDrake]

Building anti-tank fortifications means laying down mines like there’s no tomorrow. You don’t have to be special forces to lay mines, and they’re very effective at slowing down tank offensives. Just a thought.

[thefoolishhiker]

The best part of waking up is Zeihan in your feed.

[noahway]

I was no big fan of some of this guy's predictions, but he is fairly close, and unlike basically nobody else out there, he confronts his mistakes publicly. Huge props.

[Hasturoth]

If anyone wants to dig deeper into the corruption affecting Russia's army, search for "How Corruption Destroys Armies" and you'll find a great video on the subject from Perun from awhile back.

[iamric]

Please tell me if you will, where do you get your information from in order to say this, thank you?

[godschild]

I like you. Your thoughts on the situation are interesting and insightful. Thank you

[NClark]

Love the grimacing... hahaha! Yes, the Russians are jacked up. Enjoying your Q&A videos.

[timb]

A good history lesson about what may be on the horizon ... is what happened in Afghanistan...and Iraq...and even Karkhiv. All kinds of forecasts of major obstacles and defences to be overcome in each situation. But what happens? The defence crumbles when the pressure reaches a certain point. I'm thinking that is what very well may happen here. I mean...if you were a Russian soldier and all hell was dropping on you...why hang around? At some point someone is gonna start to run...then someone else...and someone else...and it'll turn into a rout. Just because at bottom they've gotta have a reason to be there....and they don't...and that matters.

[markbeaumont]

The main thing is the lose of trained/experienced ncos and officers. It will take years to replace the knowledge lost - which is good!

[thankmelater]

So you previously trusted these people, as an analyst. Now your new analysis is the good one. Got it.

[kkkk]

The front literally hasn't changed.