Confidence Interval: Will Democrats Win The House, Senate And Presidency In 2020? l FiveThirtyEight

It’s another installment of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea.

This time, politics podcast host and producer Galen Druke wonders how likely it is that Democrats will win the trifecta -- that is, win the presidency, gain control of the Senate and maintain control of the House this November.

[justinroberts]

Polls don't vote, people do: get out and vote!

[andrew]

None of this matters if you don’t vote.
VOTE!

[LiamborninDC]

I want to take the Senate but I'd want Mitch McConnell be one of the Senators that loses a seat to achieve it.

[equalityforall]

Come on Kentucky! Vote McConnell OUT! We have all seen his horrible handling of not getting the stimulus out. People are becoming homeless! Elect Amy McGrath- a true american veteran patriot!
Come on South Carolina! Get Lindsey Graham OUT! Enough of his lies! Jaime Harrison is exactly what we need here in the U.S. He's brilliant with handling all the lies being swept under the rug.
WE CAN DO THIS!!

[shubhamagarwal]

The chance of the dems getting 52 seats or higher is 47%? That’s a lot higher than I expected...

[nancychandler]

Vote. Vote even if the Polls show Democrats winning.💙💙💙💙

[mdavidmullins]

The first slate of legislation the Democrats need to pass involves removing conservative favorability in the senate. Making Puerto Rico a state, undoing — or helping those that can undo — gerrymandering. Whatever it takes. As long as a minority of Americans can block progress favored by the majority of Americans, you're going to have a useless tug-of-war. Real progress requires an open road.

[barrygeistwhite]

Normal Person: "A 23% chance doesn't seem very high."

Me, a DnD player: "A 1-in-20 event will occur with shocking regularity..."

[eeu]

I’m a retired chemical engineer and in a passed life I did a lot of statistical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of petroleum refinery operating data. I find these podcasts fascinating from a technical perspective

[rogerwilco]

The real fight is in the Senate, and there the GOP has a huge built in advantage.

[mikeharvey]

Early voting is up 1700% over this time four years ago. The higher the turnout the better it is for Dems. I voted already in Georgia, waited hour and a half, in Fulton and Gwinnett counties people waited over 11 hours what does that say?

[PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

It’s pretty incredible that in just 4 years we went from a Republican Trifecta to a Democratic Trifecta potentially. Honestly 50-51 seats for democrats is probably most likely. And with a decent house majority and President Biden. I’m really hoping democrats end gerrymandering, make PR a state, overturn citizens United, stuff like that. But packing the court is definitely extreme.

[estellapants]

How about appointing Judges to the SCOTUS who will make decisions based on judicial impartiality and intellectual depth not based on political or ideological leanings, that was the whole raison d'etre of the original concept ?

[danieldougan]

Turnout is the X factor. Please get out and vote, Democrats!

[peterflom]

I thought you were going to get into dependent and independent events and why you can't just multiply the 3 probabilities to get the probability of a trifecta

[diamondkharness]

You can be sure the Republicans and Trump will pull some nasty between now and the official counted vote. All other voters need to fight for what’s right. VOTE

[Thanksforaskingme]

They need to get rid of the built in Republican advantage by getting rid of the filibuster, expanding the 9 seats to 15 on the SC and admitting DC as a state.
It's time to beat Mcconnell at his own game

[DMTHOTH]

let's go 52 seats. So we can bypass Tester and Munchin.

[TrinhNguyen-viqo]

Democrat are more united, so just a bare majority should help a lot...Bye bye GOP...

[AndiDuck]

"There is a garbage culture out there, where we pour garbage on people. Then the pollsters run around and take a poll and say, do you smell anything?" - Bob Woodward

"I'm a believer in the polls, by the way. Rarely do you see a poll that's very far off."
- Donald Trump

The terms of the election used to be “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
BIDEN / HARRIS 2020
VOTE BLUE !!