The geometry of shooting a goal

The approach is also useful in scouting and opposition analysis. Some players over-perform (score more goals than xG predicts) in certain type of shooting situations: maybe a player is better at scoring even in a crowded box or can score from narrower angles. In the latter case, defenders should be aware that allowing that player to run wide might not be the advantage it usually is.

Used in this way, expected goals is so much more than just a count of chances. It is a deep understanding of the geometry of shooting.