2024 Electoral Map Adjusted for Historical Polling Bias by State

What if the latest polling averages in each of the crucial battleground states in the 2024 presidential election were to shift by a comparable margin to the polling errors we have seen in the last three presidential elections? I’ve gone back and calculated the average polling error across 17 different competitive states between the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections, so that in today’s video we can take a peak at what a potential 2024 electoral college map would look like if the same polling error occurred. Will former Republican President Donald Trump secure enough votes to reach 270 and defeat incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden? Let's find out...

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.

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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.

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[joshntn]

This freaking guy always goes balls deep in the numbers. Can you imagine how long it takes him to do all this stuff. Thank you sir!

[stevetate]

People need to understand that in order for Trump to make a difference, they will have to support Republican candidates for both houses as well.

[SamuelRusso-cd]

You should do this w/o 2012. The polling errors seem to be specific to the “Trump Factor”.

[Uhtred-the-bold]

I’m noticing a trend in the polling here….. 🤷‍♂️

[PauliehehhehWalnuts]

Boggles my mind anyone in a border state could ever vote Democrat

[THEONEPIECE]

I'd look more closely in 2022 polling error rather than old polling like 2016 and 2020, but honestly none of those matter, Only one matter is the actual 2024 election

[katecalihan]

Thank you for taking the time to compile all the relevant information and presenting it in a way that anyone can understand.

[christinawebb]

This is why we need to go back to one day in person election

[BennettJonWayne-xwvi]

312 electoral votes expected for Trump. I will take that for now.

[TerryProthero]

This is a good way to analyze the poll numbers. Screening out historical biases likely gives us a model with better predictive power. Although, it would be good to do an analysis after the election to see which of your methods of analysis gave the most accurate result.

[nicholashutter]

Honestly... I have seen a few of these types of videos from different creators and this was by far this most honest and up front method for this type of completely speculative video. Keep it up this is well done.

[daveriley]

Thank you for the work done to derive the data presented here.

[Jim-eiiv]

It would be interesting to look at how much polling changed between April and November in 2020 and 2016.

[anthonysilipena]

in 211 days we need to evict this squatter from the white house!!!

[alanasbridge]

Love the analysis you do. I'd like to see you examine the polling averages for just 2016 and 2020. (The elections that Trump was in) Also, look at the upcoming Senate Keep up the good

[egillis]

Loved this. I wish the MSM would do this in unbiased way...

[bradfordfields]

Kudos Ryan!!
You spent a lot of time doing this. Not easy either and we all appreciate your hard work!
Thank you

[mac]

What color are you going to use for the cheat vote?

[bababooey]

Never underestimate republicans' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

[BoneHeadBrother-pptp]

Clearly the best presentation on polling data and probable election results available anywhere. Keep up the great work!