Harris vs. Trump: Nate Silver’s 2024 Election Forecast | Amanpour and Company

As the presidential election edges closer, all eyes are firmly focused on candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Nate Silver, the prophetic pollster and poker player who founded the website FiveThirtyEight, speaks with Walter Isaacson about his new book which details how -- as in poker -- risk-taking could be key to success in November.

Originally aired on August 15, 2024

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Major support for Amanpour and Company is provided by Jim Attwood and Leslie Williams, Candace King Weir, the Sylvia A. and Simon B. Poyta Programming Endowment to Fight Antisemitism, the Leila and Mickey Straus Family Charitable Trust, Mark J. Blechner, the Filomen M. D’Agostino Foundation, Seton J. Melvin, the Peter G. Peterson and Joan Ganz Cooney Fund, Charles Rosenblum, Koo and Patricia Yuen, Barbara Hope Zuckerberg, and Jeffrey Katz and Beth Rogers.

Watch Amanpour and Company weekdays on PBS (check local listings).

Amanpour and Company features wide-ranging, in-depth conversations with global thought leaders and cultural influencers on the issues and trends impacting the world each day, from politics, business and technology to arts, science and sports. Christiane Amanpour leads the conversation on global and domestic news from London with contributions by prominent journalists Walter Isaacson, Michel Martin, Alicia Menendez and Hari Sreenivasan from the Tisch WNET Studios at Lincoln Center in New York City.

#amanpourpbs

[brucestening]

Walter is an interviewer par excellence. Asks short, sharp, crystal clear, penetrating questions of intelligent, knowledgeable interviewees. He’s a ‘must watch’.

[atmostud]

What intelligent questions from Walter Isaacson. This is the kind of journalism we've been missing.

[carminaburana]

I hate when people compare politics to games. Badly run governments cost lives.

[Cleaner-World]

"Yeah, look, I should probably just stick to poker."

[brianhennessey]

In a recent interview with Ezra Klein of the NYT, Silver self describes himself as a libertarian and would not have voted for Biden in a Biden-Trump matchup. He's lost his way.

[codymorse]

This makes me miss when 538 was good, before ABC started slowly killing it.

[msolomonii]

This guy just doesn't give me any real sense he has any grand understanding of things.

[rogerlandes]

I endured this until 7:23 when Isaacson quoted Elon Musk. Bye!

[mariapeagler]

Nate Silver predicted Trump had only a 3% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2016. So why is the media still giving him air time? He. Has. No. Idea.

[DCFunBud]

How can one person be an expert on everything? This guy is a very smooth talker.

[sherrieludwig]

I disagree with Nate Silver on the response to the pandemic, largely because he thinks of winning/losing in monetary terms, while I think in terms of lives lost. How many poker games would even a good poker player like to enter if every loss meant a life lost, or a piece of his own body taken? When the "winnings" are not super life, or super health, but simply status quo?
Vis a vis. risk taking for the sake of risk taking seems kind of pointless. Risk taking for a REASON, that's a skill to cultivate.

[Developerexpertpro]

Nate Silver’s insight into the Democrats’ improved odds highlights important changes in the political forecast. It’s worth keeping an eye on these trends.

[ycplum]

Some characterize intuition as a subconscious calculation/assessment. This is in contrast to a conscious calculation where you consciously outline the factors and consciously make the calculations.

[irusev]

Amazing interview. I'll have to now buy this book! Walter is an outstanding interviewer(for rational guests) I am curious how will he do with someone like Trump

[Mraustintexas]

I remember 2016. Republicans, remember what Trump said: "We don't need your votes." Democrats: WORK!!

[saxmanphd]

Allan Lichtman is a better predictor of presidential elections.

[timothyfreeseha]

I think your guest is really interesting - engaging, and wise. I wish Americans could take his advice and observations to heart. Being the player whose pot is the future of American children's well being, we might want to apply these suggestions in selecting candidates who are advocates for what matters to Americans, rather than winning a contest.

[kathys.]

After his 2016 debacle, I don't know why anyone would trust Nate Silver's take anymore. With his 13 keys scientific model, Allan Lichtman is a much better forecaster of presidential election outcomes.

[robertmiller]

I just love the way Silver adopts the take a risk strategy with people's lives, especially those of children around covid. I am going to go out on a limb and say that he doesn't have any children and sees no risk in other people losing theirs. Something he and people like him always forget - we didn't know what was going to happen. It was an unknown virus with unknown consequences, and in that world, caution is the best strategy.

Silver like Musk proves one thing, you can be talented in one field e.g. poker but that doesn't necessarily transfer to any other walk of life. He comes across, as I imagine all professional poker players to be, like a teenager who never really grew up.

[Dandelionfleur]

Nah, I get better advice from my cat!