How Michigan explains American politics

How Republicans won Michigan, how they lost it, and what it all tells us.

The “blue wall” once referred to a group of Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast states that, conventional wisdom said, “always vote for Democrats.” Unfortunately for Democrats, that was wrong, and in 2016 Donald Trump shockingly won three “blue wall” states — including, narrowly, the state of Michigan.

It maybe shouldn’t have been such a shock, though. All three of the “blue” states Trump won actually had a history of electing Republicans at the state level. Michigan in particular had been fully taken over since 2010 by Republicans, who then spent years gutting unions, restricting abortion, loosening environmental protections, and generally just turning a Republican policy wish list into law. So Trump winning Michigan was, in a way, just the culmination of a years-long drift to the right there.

But by 2022, something had changed dramatically. In a midterm election where Republicans were favored, Democrats won every branch of elected government in Michigan — governor, state House, and state Senate. The state Senate in particular had not been under Democratic control since 1984. And Democrats got busy using their new power immediately: repealing much of the right-wing legislation of the previous years, passing strong LGBTQ protections, quadrupling a tax credit for the poor, and allocating a billion dollars for the auto industry to transition to electric cars. Suddenly Michigan was cranking out more progressive legislation than almost any other state in the US.

So to recap: Michigan was once a blue state, except it wasn’t actually, and in fact over time it got pretty red, but then it became an actual blue state. (Again?) Or something like that. Obviously, the truth is that Michigan is a swing state. But the story of each of those swings is actually key to understanding how US politics work in the 2010s and 2020s. And it can tell us a lot about our next election, too.

Chapters:
0:00 The blue wall
2:42 Maps
4:52 The bellwether
9:51 Exit polls
13:08 2022
15:43 Michigan and the US

Correction: the timeline incorrectly shows Republicans winning control of the state House in 2006. Democrats won the House that year.

Sources:

To show national and statewide exit polls over time, we used NBC News’s data — they’re among the only organizations whose granular exit poll results both nationally and statewide going back a decade are still publicly available.

Here are links to their Michigan exit polls from 2012-2022:

And here are their national exit polls from 2012-2022:

[Vox]

Anyway, happy 2024. Election coming up, are you excited? For the election? Between the same two extremely old men from four years ago? Obviously we are. Still, we want to know what you think we should cover before then. What would help you understand this moment in US politics better? Let us know in the comments below. And thanks again for watching.

-Adam

[eric_the_egggremlin]

watching this as a Michigander is truly just whipping back and forth between fierce glee that my state is actually important and soul-eating dread that we are actually important.

[jspanos]

I still cannot believe courts have declared gerrymandering Constitutional. Hats off to my home state for getting the drawing of district maps right.

[cmorillo]

I hope ALL states appoint independent redistricting committees. It will do so much to reduce political corruption.

[mikebronicki]

51% of the vote resulted in 51% of the representatives. Wow, what a concept! Did you hear that Wisconsin?

[Mjwest]

Anti-gerrymandering is what allowed democracy for state legislature in Michigan to be more representative of reality.

[dolomitearterius]

Blind Spot: Michigander here with many family members in the automotive industry. Bill Clinton's support of NAFTA in the 1990s marred Hilary's campaign here. That piece of policy is often a commonly cited reason for the hollowing out of our manufacturing base. Remember Michigan voted for Bernie Sanders over Clinton in the primaries, arguably for this reason as well.

[themasterblaze]

As a Michigan Resident I can say with confidence that the center of the Mitten is very conservative and the cities are very liberal. A lot of Michigan is rural, but our cities are densely packed relativity. You'll find passionate voters of both sides anywhere and everywhere.

[thekingcraig]

I also want to note that the Flint water Crisis happened under Republican Leadership, and that played a role, at least in many of the state level campaigns.

[TSSmith]

As a Michigander, I can confirm I am looking at myself when I look at Michigan

[steelerfaninperu]

Super true, I grew up in MI and it really is a microcosm of the whole country. You can drive through affluent conservative suburbs like Rochester, pass through a progressive wealthy suburb like Ferndale, visit the little Middle East of Dearborn, swing by Democratic Detroit, and be out in farmland in under 2 hours.

[kevinsweitzer]

Great video- as a Michigan native I think you missed one key thing which is out-migration. Since 2016 and especially since COVID, Michiganders have been moving to other states at a rapid rapid rate. MI Gov even put together a commission to study population loss. Many aging boomers (who lean red) have fled for Florida/Texas - corresponding to their explosion in GOP support. Those votes leaving Michigan have certainly tilted our demographics.

[nasis]

American democracy truly is special. The politicians pick their voters instead of the voters picking their politicians.

[brasiliania]

Gerrymandering it’s an absurd thing and just ridiculous for a “free” country to have.

[jackcarey]

I really hope that anti-gerrymandering bill starts a trend. Our election integrity is vital in making sure the people in office feel held accountable by the vote. When that’s not the case you get tyrants.

[Knoxsinn]

It's interesting to view the poltiical history of Michigan and be able to relate it to trends of the entire nation! Great video from Livingston County

[slyde]

I grew up in Macomb County, MI. I'm glad I left. I brought my wife back home to visit my family and her initial observation was, "this is where suburbia threw up." I think that sums up Macomb County.

[josephdalecy]

You missed how much the Flint water crisis and the Edenville Dam failure pushed the conversation in michigan away from Republicans.

[lynnstevens]

Impressive. As a former Chicagoan who lived in Michigan for 40 years, I'm delighted you got Michigan right. It's so often portrayed as Detroit plus fly-over by big-city based news entities, they believe their own simplifications and invariably get it wrong. You nailed it,

[woodbuse]

As a Michigan native, I can personally attest that the Trump era and anti-abortion radicalism + a simultaneous women empowerment movement that started with the MeToo movement and the Larry Nasar stuff has really changed a lot of voters (namely women) blue. My mom and her family used to be hard republicans but my mom is not a supporter anymore and she’s actually quite appalled with the red party and the power they’ve tried to revoke from women