Why Betting Markets Favor Trump More Than Polls I Glenn Loury and Rajiv Sethi

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[Zayphar]

Great guest. Always good to hear a new perspective.

[e.daniels]

Wow. That was one of the most concise, laser-sharp descriptions and explanations of Models V. Markets I've ever heard in my life. Maybe the most valuable & meaningful 13mins of video I've listened to this year. Or decade.

[zarbins]

Very well explained, enjoyed the conversation and insights into polls vs. betting markets.

[immortaltyger]

Glen - thanks for this discussion - it's a crucial one right now.

[edwoodsr]

The basic problem with polls is not simply sampling methods, but how the sampled population is restricted in their answers by the forced choice nature of the questions. Essentially, the poll's conclusions are artificially restricted by the structure imposed to reach a conclusion.

[scratchfg]

Dude, we can’t trade on Polymarket and predictit is incredibly restrictive. Trump is going to argue that the polling markets foretold his win, when he loses.

[Narkkarihampuusi]

Betting market is one factor. If you combine it to the mix with polls, voter registration and early voting data, Trump is clear favorite at this very moment.

[TheJJO]

Polymarket had other candidates (Kamala, Michelle Obama, Whitmer) to choose from before Biden dropped out; responding to his point at the 4:00 minute mark.

[legnasiul]

President Trump it's going to be elected president for the third time. No matter what! To big to rig!

[oraz.]

Nate Silver and Manifold Market are in reasonably close agreement.

[billnorris]

MadWho has some real trouble with this discussion.

American equity markets are deeply and liquid in total. Very few 'pros' can beat the market.
Those who do, do so by such a small margin that their fees and commissions exceed the Alpha.

The Buffett/Munger team is an exception. But with long periods of underperformance. As the error of the sophisticated academic models does indeed take years. But those really weird option markets are efficient too.

In most cases, there is no penalty for an academic for being perpetually wrong, especially for those who have tied themselves to politics as their civic cult. The Nobel winners, like the economist clown at the nyZt and the fool Chu, are stunning. Especially the fool Chu.

Experience has proven that efficient markets are vastly superior to academic models—all academic models. The only question is whether the betting market has reached a level of efficiency like our American equities markets.

Something emotional like an election changes from moment to moment. There is also the margin of corruption admitted by a real man like Dough Scheon. How do you factor in what was self-evidently a level of vote rigging in the blue states that in all probability changed the election?

I am not sure of the depth and liquidity of the betting markets. So the degree to which short-term political manipulation can come into play. Harris has more than $ billion of special interest money.

But I do not doubt the wisdom of markets as a statistical machine. Many common sense or rational minds are far more powerful than academics.

Also, this election is marked by a deep gender gap. Between the far more emotional Henhouse Coven View Lessica Tarloof zombie audience versus men and married women.

Given the Obama/Biden/Harris abuses of power in agency and law? We could best case be on the cusp of a malfunction on the level of Democrat Party Jim Crow 'democracy'. The more rapidly corrected dangerous malfunction of Democrat racist W. Wilson. The sustained malfunction of FDR.

It was not most men and married women who were moved to believe the Biden Blood Red NAZI speech. Like Germany, it was women in general, who brought the German Progressive Party to power. Then the social elites were sure they could control the little under-educated corporal. ( I believe it is very clear senile Biden had a Stalingrad moment in Afghanistan.)

Interesting thing. The equities markets were able to place a monetary value on utterly failed intermittent wind and solar. Basically betting on how long corrupt political force and mental manipulation of enough Americans would be sustained.

Even supposedly 'conservative' Texas took the entire system to failure. California has only been spared due to the blessing of the most moderate climate in the world. That total jackass Bloomberg played his part in all of this.

The entire time Wall Street progressives and the Tech titans knew the scam. Now they buy up nuclear plants. Which was always about the only rational solution. If co2 is actually a problem.

Yea, that is how bad the insanely excess existing intermittent wind and solar is. Gates and the other 'progressive' hucksters had to go against the political deception and buy their own secure base load assets.

At this point, MadWho will go with the betting markets.