How climate change is making winters colder

A recent paper makes the extraordinary claim that climate change has been making North American winters colder and snowier. Specifically via a mechanism I have some history with, the polar vortex...

In this video I talk about Cohen et al (2021), a recent paper linking climate change in the Arctic to changes in the stratospheric polar vortex, which itself causes changes in winter weather. As I studied this mechanism in some detail I thought that I knew what to expect, but it turns out that via machine learning techniques, a new way in which the polar vortex influences surface weather has been discovered!

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Stock footage via Getty.

How climate change is making winters colder in America and Canada, via the stratospheric polar vortex. Arctic sea ice melt has been found to cause changes in the polar vortex, which is making winters colder in North America. Amazing what machine learning in science can accomplish! Finally my PhD becomes useful, and I can draw on my PhD thesis again.

Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Rapssack, Daniel Cook, Kevin O'Connor, Timo Kerremans, Thines Ganeshamoorthy, Jerry Moore, Sam Harvey (the ever lasting student), Ashley Wilkins, Michael Parmenter, Samuel Baumgartner, Dan Sherman, ST0RMW1NG 1, Adrian Sand, Morten Engsvang, Josh Schiager, Farsight101, Liam Margetts, K.L, poundedjam, Felix Freiberger, Chris Field, Robert Connell, Jaime Stark, Kolbrandr, , Sebastain Graf, Dan Nelson, Shane O'Brien, Alex, Fujia Li, Harry Eakins, Cody VanZandt, Jesper Koed, Jonathan Craske, Albrecht Striffler, Jon Sjöberg, Igor Francetic, Jack Troup, SexyCaveman , James Munro, Oskar Hellström, Sean Richards, Kedar , Omar Miranda, Alastair Fortune, bitreign33 , Mat Allen, Anne Smith, Rafaela Corrêa Pereira, Colin J. Brown, Princess Andromeda, Aron Kári Ágústsson, Leighton Mackenzie, BenDent, Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Tim Boxall, Dan Hanvey, Simon Donkers, Kodzo , James Bridges, Liam , Andrea De Mezzo, Wendover Productions, Kendra Johnson.

[MedlifeCrisis]

Very useful to have something to respond to wags who say “if climate change is real, how come it’s so cold today?”

[kirklaird]

You fail to note that your temperature graph is adjusted temperatures. That is how they manage to get warming when unadjusted temperatures do NOT show warming.

[ADreamingTraveler]

It's not so much them getting colder on average. It's just that you get more brutal periods of cold and this cold also helps fuel the sudden rise in snowstorms here since the 2010's. In general the winters here are still getting warmer but sometimes you'll get a cold snap that's pretty nasty.

[domainofscience]

This was fascinating. Thanks for educating my brain! I really like this breakdown of a paper and setting the context around why it is interesting. Top content!

[chucklesthered]

Uh.... I grew up in the 60's and 70's in northern NJ. I lived on a lake and we always had very thick ice in the winter. Hell, we played hockey on the ice, we had parties on the ice, people drove their vehicles on the ice, we would build bonfires on the ice and skate all night. We lived on the ice all winter. I moved away long ago but still stay in touch with an old friend that still lives on that lake. He tells me that the ice almost never gets thick enough to skate on safely and it's been like that for almost 25 yrs. One last thing... we used to get a lot of snow each winter and school never got called off, not once.

[robertbones]

Here in the UK I remember a Wednesday during winter, it was easily the coldest winter of the entire year. I was working with my dad on the house back then, I can't believe he treated it like a normal day, I was trying to work on a window sash outside on the bench and the cold was actually painful. Shivering hardcore, everything was frozen, taps didn't work, would have f'ing died if I had slept the night without a lot of heating and insulation. We eventually packed up and left the job sometime after 10am.

[tadhgtwo]

Simon love the video. Would love to see you do more similar videos that cover scientific research papers. You made it very interesting and approachable.

[mitchhowe]

A series (don't care how frequent) covering random papers of notable conclusions or interesting approach/subject would be a joy, in my opinion.

[shoobidyboop]

Colder winters should make us all that much more appreciative of fossil fuels.

[johnlemon]

I really enjoyed this, I’d love to see more like it.

[llcn]

6:02 THANK YOU FOR MAKING THIS VIDEO!!! This has been what I’ve been telling people all along! A lot of people use extreme winters as evidence that “global warming” is not real and it’s frustrating because it comes from a lack of education that isn’t necessarily the individual’s fault. I think the conversation around climate change has focused too much on the warming part when it’s only one part of the equation. It’s not the warming itself that’s changing the climate, but rather the the warming as energy that fuels more extreme weather events. It’s why more and more scientists have switched from saying “global warming” to “climate change” in order to capture the broader picture of what exactly is going on with the climate.

This video needs to be seen by every single person living in this world.

[tylerbarbero]

Simon, love these "journal club" style of videos. I think it is the perfect amount of detail and length for a general audience -- would love to see more of these

[CP]

It was awesome.

Good explanation.

I work as an engineering draftsman in Switzerland and we have to overthink our understanding how we build roads, seawage and stuff. Because the "more energy" in the system means more 100-year floods.

Grüsse.

[joon]

Please, geek out as much as you want! Love this type of video

[cabthegreat]

Great video. For simpletons like me I can see the ties between climate change and climate instability and sudden snowfalls in Florida but just don't have the knowledge behind why it happens. What you do helps a lot. Please do more.

[hinenik]

I just discovered your channel and I am swallowing every single video just as a pigeon swallows rotten bread in a park. I love it!

[dgblitwin]

This was great - pacing, depth, length, etc. I would definitely watch longer low-key videos with more technical detail if you have the time to make them though!

[MrYas]

"Don't talk outside at −23 °F (−31 °C) in Chicago" *laughs in Finnish

[nelhuiliztli]

Meanwhile here in Utah, I’m still waiting for snow! We used to have snow around the last week of November, and staying until March. Now we’re having temporary snow near the end of December. We hadn’t had a pre-snow shower in September since I was in 11th grade, and I’m 23 now!

I sound like an old man now, but when I was in elementary school, kids were used to be brought in and picked up on sled! And this was in a suburbs of West Jordan.

[PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

This video was very interesting. A stretching vortex. I mean in most locations winters are warming on average but it’s pretty interesting that even in a warmer world, cold extremes can still occur.