I went to China to understand the Economic, Real Estate, and Confidence Crisis. Here's what I found.

China's economy has undergone extreme stress in its property market and consumer consumption, putting the spotlight on whether any recovery is possible at all in the year ahead. In this video we discuss China's economy, its markets, and commentary on its outlook through a vlog-based style adding onto macro data shared. I believe that China is on a path to recovery but it will be slower and very choppy along the way.

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*Social Media Reminder: Do not fall for scammers & impersonators who pretend to be me.

[VictoriaWood-ucmp]

I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.

[RaymondKeen.]

I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better

[dessertcruiser]

Have you all caught wind of Monica 0:01 Mary 0:01 Strigle 0:01? Word is, she executed a successful short position on the Chinese Index, yielding an impressive 185% gain a 2wks ago.

[kelvinjohnson]

Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.

[CameronFussner]

I think we are too obsessed about the economy crashing. In the right sense, the economy never crashes. It just undergoes cycles, and almost always recovers. So I really don't care what the predictions are. I just want to grow my portfolio. I read that people are pulling in massive profits despite the downturn. Any tips on how they do it?

[liujason]

This is not the first time China encountered economic difficulty. In fact, many time in the past. Given the big background of at or near the end of depressional phase of the 50-60 years of Kondratiev wave， the whole world is in big trouble economically, geopolitically, environmentally, etc. And surprisingly, when you COMPARE China with other countries around the world, China's performance just stands out remarkable.
Not just looking at the current situation, look at the trend, especially the long term trend. China has proved itself with its long term track record, in almost all aspects that are important to a nation.
Is it fair that if all other students in a class only get 50-60 marks, you point your finger on China saying that its score dropped from 90 to 75?

[albertchung]

I was an expatriate working with state-owned enterprises in China for over a decade. This video is very misleading. Although the data listed in the video are based on the government's official numbers, they are not transparent and convincing. I have always believed that the CCP has manipulated economic statements. The apartments displayed in the video must be at the very high end. Most Chinese can't afford to buy these units. Why can't we see those not-completed constructions? It is estimated there are more than 20 million units not finished. As long as foreigners have safety issues working in China, then there is no point in considering investment there. The genuine concern to invest in China is primarily hinged on one person. I believe you know who he is.

[fixedG]

I read just this morning that Credit Suisse has axed their entire wealth management team in China and are just giving up on trying to become a major player in that space there.

[Diderot]

Corrections are more than normal. China property prices are long overdue for a correction.

[BeniWong-gv]

It’s not only the US relationship that has deteriorated it’s all the modern world

[staticoverplastic]

How do you reconcile your chart saying new home prices in tier 1 were flat while your experience found declines in tier 1 as well? The opacity (and unpredictable regulatory moves) make it hard to have any confidence.

[glenngrowe]

A sober and informed look at the Chinese economic situation. I like that Larry visited China to gather first-hand data on the housing situation. However, from a Chinese friend I have heard that even in a first-tier city (Shenzhen) real estate prices have dropped by 30%. Time will tell.

[isaacg.]

Given that the future of China's economy is fundamentally dependent on Geopolitical concerns, I do not agree that first tier city real-estate will recover in times ahead without government intervention.

[jayy]

Lol i dealt directly with the finance side of China Government, as well as their banks. Their government is the best i have dealt with (australian, singaporean, malaysian, thailand were the others), their way if thinking is unique and extremely skilled. I can tell you property is only a concern to the speculators, which many chinese did. In Shenzhen there is still huge speculation primarily from HK, and while it is good money for the government, it pisses off the poor or young buyers. Since about 2016 they have been trying to lower prices, including massive government spend on new areas (your so called ghost towns) yes you read that correctly, they are primarily government funded. However all the speculation was concentrated in cities and prices keep rising. The CPC are going to let all the speculators lose money 100%, they wont bailout the bankers like the westerners. Fantastic government

[rainmanben]

The China economy is basew export and when orders drop it means the earning will drop. As earning drop spending will be cut by commercial entity which normally retrenchment and when unemployed which means no spending and default loans. So China economy going into a tailspin.

[jinye]

Real estate is only 2% of China in 2023 and 4% in 2022. The IMF revised its forecast of China's GDP in November to be 5.4% in 2023. With over 5.4%, how can China be collapsing?

[yehuo]

wow! larry! this is 1 of the best observation summarizing china instead of those twisted news!

[DecemberNames]

This never gets old 💯💯💯. Keep it coming‼‼‼

[TaiChiBeMe]

What about the volatility of the market from the actions of the government? Isn't this a concern that should be addressed when it comes to investment in China? It certainly seemed like a concern to many of the investors that sat at Xi'a dinner table.

[salinascgs]

Great video! I am about to travel to China to look for some manufacturing partners. I know Alibaba prices have gone up throughout the years. I wonder what things will be like when I am there after CNY.