The End of the Future with Peter Thiel

Stanford Academic Freedom Conference Nov 4-5

[dubbahco]

00:00:00 - Introducing Peter Thiel
00:03:23 - The Antonym of Diversity
00:14:40 - Why the Question of Technological Progress Can't Be Avoided
00:25:00 - The Rise of the AGI
00:32:39 - On Progress and Government Regulation
00:41:12 - Extreme Optimism and Extreme Pessimism
00:43:26 - Rick Schweiter on the Future of the Internet
00:45:18 - The University's failure to cultivate human potential

[anasrehman]

"However dangerous science and technology are... it seems to me that totalitarianism is far more dangerous"💯

[victorosyka]

For those who are busy to watch kindly look at my summary in 500 words:
- Peter Thiel spoke at Stanford conference on Academic Freedom (it is about “how to remove cancel culture and the politicization of science, how to return everything back to freedom of thought”). In essence, he explains why I am building VC to accelerate tech progress :)

- What is the antonym of the word diversity? University. In the late 80s, Thiel founded the Stanford Review, a student newspaper, because woke culture was already coming in. For 50 years, the values of civilization have floated on a planetary scale, and we didn’t even notice it, but they fundamentally influenced the pace of progress

- It is not even immediately obvious whether the technological progress is slowing down. For example, the living standards of the last generation are no higher than those of their parents. Moreover, we have a paradox: in the world of atoms (world of atoms, world of bits) progress is slowing down, but in the media we are assured that progress in general is incredible. Example: for 20 years in the US some tech people in government advisory boards will always convince everyone that our real inflation is less than in economic statistics, because our devices have become better. But it doesn't matter how smooth the iPhone is - it still won't let us fly to Mars

- You need to challenge yourself through several repeated questions for things that you consider ideologically obvious. Until the 1960s, science fiction was positive, and since then it has become mostly dystopian, where have the positive images of the future gone? Why do we rely on these old religious expectations of an apocalypse or a doomsday? Why did it infiltrate technology?

- Or, for example, the fear of danger AI / AGI - follows only from a view of the world as a Darwinist or Machiavellian. Such value attitudes lead to really dangerous quirks. I saw Nick Bostrom, he says that let's assume that AGI is dangerous, and therefore it is necessary to limit work in this direction, and distribution, and moreover, it is necessary to strictly control it all over the world, which threatens an authoritarian regime all over the earth. But I am categorically against any authoritarianism

- You need to stop being afraid of dual-use technologies, this is not a reason to slow down progress or look at tech negatively. I think that it was after 1975, when they gave India nuclear reactors, and they took and made weapons, then the concept of nonproliferation went to other areas of technology

- The thalidomide crisis in the 1960s (a tranquilizer that led to 10, 000 birth defects) is no reason for prohibitively long and expensive clinical trials either. The creators of mRNA vaccines, by the way, deserve public respect, where is it? (saved us from the weaponization of virus research)

- Only economic growth through technological progress can become a support/insurance for all other types of social stability

- It turns out that elitism is needed so that the best know what to do, rather than trying to pull up all the lagging behind? “Egalitarianism is an excuse for a failed elitism”

Victor:

1st: About Bostrom's Darwinism - evolution went through iterations of algorithms and it “needed” to free the ecosystem, and AGI, on the contrary, may emerge by the development / “education” of one entity, without any removal of past programs. Therefore a direct transfer of Darwinism is inappropriate here ?

2nd: Thiel, as a technocrat in his way of thinking from first principles (famous example: Elon Musk saw a 10-fold difference between the price of lithium / nickel / plastic on the commodity exchange and the final cost of the battery -> and began to optimize it) he came to values / cultural / religious reasons of slowdown in technological progress on the planet

[therealbriancox]

"It's like saying the flatness of the iPhone is such a large hedonic adjustment that grandma should be happy to eat cat food" lmao 18:31

[fricardo]

I love how this dude is such a superior intellect and how he focuses on playing at the edge of words’ meanings to fabricate disagreement out of thin air. His sophistry is really impecable. He would be at home arguing that “making the totality of relevant available information to the totality of the population for that population in its totality to go out and participate electorally to chose society’s path on those specific issues would be a form of totalitarianism”….😂 his play of words are really remarkable in their appearance of making sense, I’m sure most people fall for his sophistry.

[casey]

He's worried about totalitarianism and hyper surveillance when he's literally the guy who co-founded palantir lol

[newdawnrising]

The stagnation was caused in part by the Reagan tax cuts. When businesses owners stoped being taxed at 70% and it was knocked down to 28% for the top marginal tax bracket, then all the investments in productivity and research into new technologies just died out. The owners pocketed all that hot cheap easy money their workers made for them and they got comfortable and soft. When CEO salaries went from 60x the average workers and jumped to 300 x those same wages that never managed to increase for 40 + years ruining the lives of the vast majority of Americans. The consolidation of wealth that was being produced by our society into the hands of a few ruined the awesome power of the US economy. Workers pay and with it America has stalled out and is now in a state of decay.
Business leaders know all of this but they can not mention it bc that would ruin their gravy train. The oligarchs have screwed our system up in their greed. It’s as obvious as can be.
You don’t need a totalitarian state. You need an economy that works for all. Not just a hand full of ppl.

That speech was a load of BS. He can’t do better then that?
It’s all the liberals fault right? Too much taxes and regulations. That lie is what has put us where we are at. Libertarians are self deluded in ideology that would never work. It’s the success of the right is what is the root of our problems today.
It’s hard to argue with ppl who start from false assumptions.

[ReflectionOcean]

"The Antonym of Diversity is University": In this talk, Peter Thiel discusses the stagnation of science and technology in recent years and the dangers that come with it. He argues that while universities claim to be the center of progress, they have actually hindered it. Thiel highlights the need for a closer examination of technological progress and its limitations. He also warns against the dangers of totalitarianism and the loss of individual agency. Thiel concludes by emphasizing the importance of reclaiming the idea of progress while remaining realistic and avoiding extreme optimism or pessimism.

[westganton]

Considering that technology throws fuel on the fire of existing social problems, perhaps we should figure out how to build productive and resilient societies that inspire trust before continuing to stack our house of cards

[BabaBabelOm]

First guys commentary is ON-POINT! And I’ve been in renewables for 13 years.

[mfpears]

"Egalitarianism is the excuse for a failed elitism."

[ЕвгениГеоргиев-тя]

I agree, most peoppe in the west fear inovation and real progress

[TheYourscorpion]

I would say that just the complexity of everything has grown a lot. Before, there was a lot of low-hanging fruit that was easy to pick, and that was a scientific breakthrough. Now we have to climb very high.

[Saltatory_]

Love this video and love the pragmatic libertarianism. Interesting that the next recommended video by Peter is that competition is for losers. The best way to "win" is to obtain a government sponsored monopoly - through IP, regulatory barriers etc. Seems like to fully support the libertarian view, you also have to accept that "big wins" might have to go away and be ok with that.

[dkim]

12:21 "Humanities, as we all know, are ridiiculous." File under: Things a person with Asperger's might say.

[nickvoutsas]

The future is unknown until we define it's constraints whilst expanding new possibilities. Everything evolves either towards extinction or toward synchronicity with nature. The key to future progress depends on our choice not to destroy what is God sent.

[princenmai]

Thiel agree that we should be aware of the potential dangers of technology and strive to ensure that progress is accessible to all. Here are some bullet points that summarize our conversation:
• Technology has been stagnant for the past 50 years due to the dual use nature of many technologies.
• We should reclaim the language of progress and ask how the next generation can do better than the current one.
• We should combine the best elements of classical liberalism with something else for the future, while also being aware of the dangers of too much optimism.
• We should be aware of the dangers of totalitarianism and colonialism, and strive to ensure that progress is accessible to all.
• Success is not guaranteed and it is not a matter of extreme optimism or pessimism. It is a matter of individual human agency and hard work.
• The Thiel Fellows program has taught us that universities are not always the best way to cultivate human potential, and that there is a need for a better system.

[mackenziekieran]

I don't understand how he can be so dismissive of the Humanities,
when his entire approach is self-evidently deeply informed by History, Philosophy, Political Science, Law, Literature ...etc...
All received via an education in the Humanities

[stanisgmi]

Honestly, this idea for restricting innovation and pushing a world government due to the theoretical fear of annihilation seems like a pretty good front for a post-colonialism empire to try and gain more worldwide power through the veil of imminent destruction (fear), similar to how the church has done in the distant past.

[josiahmeyer]

Hahaha, he didn’t realize the “Death With Dignity” post was an April Fools joke… Yudkowsky posted it on 1 April😂