Secular Stagnation or Technological Singularity?

What should we expect for the year 2100? How will the world economy develop, and what will be the life conditions of an average human?

Our economic future will find a place along the continuum from catastrophe to technological singularity, and our personal future will be somewhere between extinction and immortality. The factors that will determine our fate include, inter alia, the possibility of creating superhuman artificial intelligence and the possibility of a new technological revolution (quantum, nanotech, biotech, etc.). Contrary to a belief widely shared among economists, I don't find the prospects of a secular stagnation in development a likely outcome. Instead, given that modern technologies tend to be double-edged swords, I perceive the likelihood of extreme outcomes as often underestimated in the relevant discussions.

[nickpigott]

The prospect of a technological singularity is extremely thought-provoking, Jakub. Thank you for your BPWs and for allowing us to share in your thoughts.

[marcv]

Interesting talk. Better than most others I've been watching on this topic. You deserve more views. I don't like the term 4th Industrial Revolution either. I think we're in for slowing technological progress though. I think the current generation of AI is already stagnating. There needs to be some breakthroughs with a generalized AI otherwise we won't have any big breakthroughs. There is a lot of tech that hasn't been well applied yet, so that should keep decent growth with greater application of AI and robotics.