Is Labour About to Steal Scotland from the SNP?

Due to the resignation of former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier there is a by-election on the way in Scotland. It looks like Labour might steal the seat which could be a sign of things to come in Scotland at the next general election.

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[adridaplague-boi]

The politics of the early 2020s feels like they can be very easily summarised by "winning by not losing as fast as your enemies" right now. From the British death-spiral of policy to the Finnish Far Right party's scandals to the Spanish failiure to form a government putting the power into Catalan Hands, it seems the best thing to do in politics right now is be an Alternative option.

[walterfielding]

As a person who knows some pro Brexit Tories who live in Scotland, I can confirm the idea of voting Labour just to hurt the SNP is attractive to at least some degree.

[LewisMinion]

0:10 Ferrier did not resign, a Recall Petition which was declared after her 30-day suspension from the Commons had over 10% of constituents vote in favour. Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, Ferrier automatically lost her position as an MP.

[xtieburn]

God, isnt it so incredibly depressing that Labour is making so many gains, not based upon any good policy (Which can be summed up almost in its entirety as: Tory, only hopefully vaguely more competently implemented.), but solely based upon their opposition being generally bloody awful.

[robbieblack]

Ferrier didn't resign. She was subject to recall petition which was successful and consequently lost her seat.

She also wasn't an SNP MP at the time as she was expelled from the party 3 years prior.

[gothicgolem]

She didn’t resign she got recalled from a recall petition

[FightingTorque]

Speaking as a Scot, you vastly overestimate our importance in general elections. You've neatly picked the two times in the 70s where our vote *did* make a difference in a razor-thin contest; otherwise, Scotland has had the (usually Tory) government that the English have voted in (as have the Welsh and Nirish) since the end of WWII. I'm confident that the SNP could win all 59 Scottish seats next year and Labour will still have a majority.

[dirtyden]

I think polls are really overestimating the popularity of labour at the moment. I think there's still large scale support for Scottish independence. I'm not Scottish but I don't think Starmer has really made any promises that he's either kept or were exciting. I know there's a lot of Scandal in the SNP, but Labour is no stranger to the concept either. I think it'll be very close.

[willywhonka]

Labours policy positions under Starmer have yet to be put under any scrutiny in an election in Scotland. It will be strongly highlighted by the SNP when there is actually an ongoing campaign. I fully expect the gap to widen again. Labour will not win Scotland.

[raellawrence]

Hopefully most of Scotland sees Starmer for the Red Tory he is, and sends a strong message to Westminster.

[CacklingAntagonist]

Ah yes. The 2 times in the 70s that Scotland mattered to Westminster. How england goes so goes the government.

[AndrewBradly]

Labour abandoned Scotland a long time ago, they have zero chance taking it back

[robertlaw.]

Does that leave the child payment scheme under threat? How about free prescriptions? Will kids still have free bus travel? Will rail ownership be kept in public? Will Scortish Water be kept in public ownership? Will Labour cut free school meals? Will Scorland still see measures against period poverty?
Labour better explain which of these policies, along with many others i didnt mention, are safe, and if they will remain in place in Scotland then why doesnt Labour support these policies across the rest of the UK?

[conorc]

Red Tories…. Red tories everywhere! Scotland knows exactly what they’re like.

[williamdocherty]

Labour are viewed as nothing more than red Tories in Scotland. They better hope that they can form a government without many seats from Scotland

[WVislandia]

If you think that, you're very much out of touch with what is happening in Scotland.

[overlongname]

The SNP leader is definitely less popular than his predecessors, but I don't feel the other reasons are so clear. The scandal may not prove too damning as SNP voters are often more interested in policy, particularly if an offending policitian is no longer in the party (like allegations against Salmond after he left). Regarding "key differences", one topic in the public discourse was same sex marriage, and while not unanimous this is already very widely supported among SNP voters so it seems unlikely to cause a rift. I wonder if this video might turn out to be a bit sensationalist after the next general election as with independence support still high I struggle to believe Labour can outperform SNP in Scotland in the near future, even though they are likely to gain seats.

[strangetrip]

I live in Scotland and was a reluctant Labour voter up till last election. I cannot vote for Labour now, they are offering no reason to support them. Nothing! At all!

[cannygrowabeard]

This a poor piece TLDR. You solely focus on the SNP and have not considered the policy rift between the London-based Labour party and Scottish Labour, where the central party are chasing right wing voters, copying Tory policy. Environmental policy, GRR, two child benefit cap.

What does the Labour party actually stand for? And do Scottish Labout have ANY clout?

Are we supposed to vote for Labour in Scotland? to do what? Hold the now right wing leadership of Labour to account?

Nah I'd rather vote for a Scottish party than a branch office of the Westminster Labour parliamentary machine.

[dafuzzymonster]

No. The Scot’s aren’t stupid, none of them want the tories back in