Understanding and calculating pot odds and equity in Texas Holdem - Hello Alec 46

In poker, pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call. Pot odds are often compared to the probability of winning a hand with a future card in order to estimate the call's expected value. My reader struggles with understanding and calculating pot odds. Could you help? Then, once you do the math, what is your move here?
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[RonZucker]

So, I'm the Ron in question. Thank you all for the advice, and thank you Alec for posting this. I was most curious about potentially folding the flush draw on the flop. I think the fold, at a weak table, is right on the turn, even if it's long term +EV to call. I can get a better price later. But if that's true, it implies that my flop call might have been overly ambitious. I'm certainly calling as much to stack one of the other players, especially the UTG raiser, as anything. Once that's not happening, I think you're right.

I also think that, as many of you have said, with the button hand, after my hand calls, I would shove right there with two pair. There are draws out there, and I would want to isolate the all in. But one of my biggest weaknesses in analyzing poker hands is figuring out what other players are thinking. I know how I'd play his hand. It smashed the flop, and there's a flush draw. I'm making any flush draw pay. But I don't know what he was thinking, so can't comment.

But mostly I was interested in how you put other players on a hand in this spot. Do I think they might have a higher flush or straight draw? Are all of my outs live? 15 outs (3 non diamond 6's, 3 non-diamond jacks and 9 diamonds) is just over a third of the deck. If I have that, it's close. If I don't have all of those outs, it's not. How do I figure it?

And, again, thank all of you for the advice and thanks Alec for posting this.

[Storyvilleemcee]

This is where understanding combinations is really important. Yes - your opponent COULD have 9T diamonds here. That's one combo of holdings that makes sense. He could also have: a set of 3s, 4s, 34suited, 56diamonds, pocket Jacks, A9, maybe even 9T of another suit. There's just a very wide range of value hands that could do this that you have a ton of equity against. I think checking is fine on the turn, but you are doing it to induce action and make a narrow +EV call.

[FiroRosso]

Ok, dude, if you think calling there is not very profitable, then don't play 78s ever in your life. If you're gonna be afraid of bigger flushes, then don't play them.

Let's review what happened then: UTG opens, shortstack fish calls, you call. When the button calls, you have to be aware that he migh be calling with a wide range of hands, mainly because he's getting 4:1 on a call. He can have all sorts of suited connectors, low pairs and stuff. When the flop comes and he calls the shove you can put him on a range that includes top pair, sets, 52, 56 and even two pair. We can now ask ourselves what hands could he be shoving with in that board: We have nutted ranges like: slowplayed overpairs, sets, two pair (including T9d) and we have nut draws: ATd and A9d, 56d and 52d for the straight flush. If my range is correctly applied we have 33.34% equity in the turn (against 99+, 44-33, 87s, 43s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, A9o, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 87o, 43o) and we need 33.16% to call, which makes this a slightly profitable call, but still profitable.

Again if you're gonna be scared of bigger flushes, don't play 78s ever

[neuro]

preflop: ok
otf: i don't love calling with 2 players left to act, but i don't think it's a mistake to call here. we have the odds against the guy who shoved, but we might also have reverse implied odds if both of the guys left to act call.
ott: folding is fine. i think we should not count 9d and Td as outs (i'm giving the button a range made of two pairs, mostly 9T, and sets; it doesn't make much sense for the button to shove with a draw here, there's no side pot when he goes all in and he can't bluff the "original shover" off of his hand, so i think we're almost always good if we hit a flush or a straight), so we're left with 7 diamonds and 6 other outs to make our straight = 13 outs*2 = 26% equity, a bit better than 3:1. we're getting 2:1, so we should fold.

[reece]

On the turn when it was checked to you did you think about going all-in? A lot of players don't like to chase flush draws on the turn mostly because they are not getting the odds to do so. If any of the players in early position had the A high draw then he would have raised on the flop or bet the turn. If you shove the turn you have enough money to get some players to fold. I don't think the button folds, but your hand could look like 910 a lot of times. The board is too draw heavy for any of the players in front of you to trap and try a check raise.

The turn lay down was fine, because like you said even with all 15 outs you are just barely getting the right odds to call. You're better than me because I''m never folding that hand, lol.

[gsuk]

I think by just calling pre-flop, you are giving everyone behind you no choice but to at least call (correctly) and you are therefore allowing them to make the right decision. 78s isn't a nice hand to be reraising with pre-flop, but UTG is basically pot-committed and you don't want to play a 5-way hand with 8 high. Betting the turn is also an option - one taken by the player to your left - now you have the tough decision rather than him. However, I don't think you should be worried about 9Td because that's a monster on the flop and he didn't raise in-position (although he didn't raise his 2 pair either). Isolating the short-stack pre-flop is probably the best play in my opinion, but calling with suited connectors in position is something I might do a lot too (but is probably not the best play). I think you have to call the turn though to a pot-sized bet. You're clearly behind, but you have lots of equity. Re-raising pre-flop would have been best, but that's easy to say with hindsight.

[ANIBAL]

hey Alec, can you do a video about how to tell your parents you want to do poker for a living?
Thanks

[joeregan]

I actually think turn is a pretty easy fold. You're never up against a pure draw; he'll shove here with bad slowplays, pair + FD, etc. it sucks to fold such a nice turn card, but the price is just wrong.

[NikhilAutar]

Well played on the flop. Yes it may seem like you had pot odds to make a marginal call, but not too many people remember to factor in their oponents' range and how they're playing the hand. When he's betting that much though, he's likely betting for value or to protect an already made hand into a dead pot (that's another reason you'd bet into a dry pot on the turn to Arnold below), so you can almost eliminate those draws you put him on - just a point. What you said about waiting for better spots on a weak table is something to factor in though so well played.
But when calling the flop, even though you've got very slight odds again to call your opponent if you were heads up, and though you can get a decent chance of another player coming along, you have to think about what you'll do in the likely event your hand doesn't improve on the turn.
Your opponents ranges are unlikely to be over pairs (except for maybe 10s, perhaps jacks, the rest would have reraised at some point), but they're very likely to have you beat already when they call or be on a draw that can only be better than yours, which only puts you to making a tough decision on the turn, or puts you behind in the case of that higher flush draw. So your assumption that an opponent coming along wasn't necessarily good unless you were lucky enough to get that just under 30% chance of getting a flush or a straight draw. When factoring in you're getting 3:1 to call, yet just getting over 35% to call on that flop, it's not a great position to be in.
That's without even factoring in the (somewhat likely) possibility of your opponent raising to isolate/extract more value.
But the implied odds could be on your side calling too. Other peoples' thoughts? Alec?

[wen]

I would consider 3bet 78 suited against a UTG very active player and if he calls you have a deceptive kind of hand and I on the turn I would also fold your flush and straight draw since there is only 1 card to come if flush and open ended on the flop I might call

[PropagandaPanda]

i dont think the fish would ship it with a pot size bet on the flop with anything better than a overpair or top pair, i guess he would check raise or check call in a passive manner like fishes tend to do when they hit a great hand ( set two pair ....)
our odds are roughly 38-39 percent against an overpair. that alone would justify a call on the flop. what are we going to do with the remaining players?` to isolate in such a spot is not really a good play since even when we are able to play only against the fish our EV is positive but not in a big way. i guess we call here and see from there. what are you guys opinion on 3betting this hand preflop in these live 1/2 cash games at the local casino?

[oldhamegg]

I think the reason for the fold was a little suspect considering you were afraid of a bigger flush draw with very specific perimeters Ad10d or etc.. The fold itself was ok because it is obvious now that yes you could find a much better spot to get it all in against those anything goes players..

[jamesspencer]

I would fold the 7-8 diamonds. Yes... they are suited and connected - but too low to offer a considerable advantage. After the dealer went all in... not sure... probably fold.

[seviren]

Now that's a loose table!

I think the flop ranges are pretty open faced... Being unable to raise preflop due to the short stack and ending up out f position didn't help but I don't think there's really anything else you can do...

Fold and chipping away at the loose calls. Lol

[nategao]

I don't like the button call on the flop with 3c4c. he's giving excellent odds for flush draws and SB to call when nearly all turn cards are bad for him.

[askesis]

If calling is "barely profitable", then you should call. "Finding a better spot" is a fallacy. You'll get more profitable spots later, and you'll take those too, but a profitable spot is a profitable spot and you want to take advantage of every one you can. Oh, and so what if you lose this hand? You reload, and now the weak player has a big stack and a chance to make big mistakes (i.e. those better spots you were looking for).

[Neimos]

perfectly played buddy.... I think fold is the right play when it goes like this since you can never be sure. If you had the nut flush draw with a straight draw yes then you might have called if you wanted to gamble with 0 implied odds. But I would fold every single time in a spot like this. You are holding a very marginal hand at that spot. It is safe to abort mission at that point - since you might be getting reverse odds

[arnoldPLO]

In my opinion: Perfectly played on the turn, nothing to say more about here.

But on the flop it is a fold. The fish will almost certainly have a 9 or better, or a better flush draw. Against him you will have about 35% equity. Only vs him it would be a close call.
But you dont get a lot of implied odds when you catch the flush vs another caller, because everybody knows you are value betting when you bet into a dead pot. And there are a lot of reverse implied odds when somebody catches a higher flush. And there is a high chance you cannot realize your equity when one of the other players goes over the top or bet the turn when you miss.

So fold it at the flop and wait for a better situation. :)

[wen]

and I am not fan of calling off my chips with flushdraw or open ended straight draw rather raise, I rather call with double belly buster draws since they wont see that 1 coming

[ChinGuan]

Hi Ron my two cent view, you play your draw too passive, since you want to draw passively no choice you have to call, villain range might have over pair, 2 pair, set, AT , 9 10 etc so if you clearly know his hand has higher flush draw then you a fold is a right move you do not have enough pot odd etc to draw. but the problem is we cant know what cards he have he might have lower flush draw lower straight draw etc so i think folding here is a wrong move. to prevent this situation play your draw aggressively,