Russia-Ukraine: Don’t Expect Full-On Invasion, but Putin Isn’t Bluffing | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Russia-Ukraine is Biden's first major foreign policy crisis.


Hi everybody. Happy Tuesday after the long weekend for those of us that had a long weekend. I thought I would kick us off with the first major foreign policy crisis of the Biden administration. And that is of course, Russia-Ukraine. Afghanistan, of course, was a debacle, but not exactly a global crisis. This of course has the potential to really change the way we think about European security and about US relations with the other major nuclear power in the world. So, I would say that the level of concern is even higher and there are a lot of things we can say.

First, the last few days have mostly been escalatory. The last week of meetings between the United States and Russia, as well as NATO and Russia, it's good that the sides are talking, but there was not significant progress. The Russians made very clear that if you want to have more talks, we need a very quick written response to the demands they made publicly. So, you wouldn't say that there has been anything that looks like a diplomatic breakthrough.

And on the other hand, the messages that have come from the Russians in the last few days have mostly been escalatory. There's been cyberattacks against a number of websites in Ukraine belonging to government organizations, direct malware attacks against the number of government agencies, almost certainly from Russia. You see the Russians sending a bunch of troops to Belarus for sudden and non previously announced military exercises right on Ukraine's border and also now moving personnel from Russia's embassy in Kyiv. These are all signs that the Russians want the rest of the world to see that they are planning significant military activities in Ukraine.

On the other hand, it's really a bad idea for the Russians to go in and the costs that they would incur, both because the Ukrainian population on the ground is hostile to Russia, and there was consideration when they occupied Donbas, about taking further territory in Ukraine and one of the reasons they didn't do it is because they understood that that was going to lead to significant ongoing fighting. It would be unpopular in Russia and there'd be body bags and nobody wants to see that.

Now Putin's in a stronger economic position today. He might think that Biden's a little weaker, might think he's a little bit less likely to respond strongly. There's a new German chancellor in place who wants to engage directly with the Russians. Merkel's not there anymore. So, I understand why there might be more willingness to escalate. But still, a decision to do a full-on invasion of Ukraine is the one thing that is certain to bring the Americans and the Europeans together.

The one thing that is certain to revitalize NATO, which is an organization that's been floundering around for a lack of a mission over the past years. They would have a mission. That mission would be very much to defend against Russia and both the economic sanctions as well as the NATO military response, terms of more exercises, troops in the Baltics, positioning of forces closer to Russia's borders. All of that, I think, is something that Putin really wouldn't want to see. Would be very reluctant.

So, I personally think that there is a lower likelihood of overall full-scale invasion, takeout Zelensky, the tanks roll into Ukrainian territory. But I also recognize that every sign the Russians are sending points to very significant escalation.

So, there are two really big questions that we need to ask. The first is, is there a deal to be cut? Is it possible that diplomacy could actually bear some fruit and we can deescalate this? And secondly, if not, how big does Putin go? So, on the first question, I think it's worth remembering that when Biden met face to face with Putin in Geneva, the one big meeting back in June, they spent about two hours together, that was mostly Biden's agenda and there was one thing that Biden really put as a top priority to the Russian president.

#QuickTake #Ukraine #Putin

[billykobilca]

Only 5 provinces would want Russia posession, all in eastern Ukraine. Where the majority are Russians. Ukrain should be a federation with autonomous regions. And neutral.

[jordanpack]

Thank you so much for taking the time to discuss this, Ian.

[lawrenceralph]

Does the US have an compelling interest in defending Western Ukraine?

Perhaps an absentee US will stimulate EU nations to begin building adequate modern defenses.

[yaoypl]

Don’t poke the bear! This is “Not a Step Back” situation for Russia 🇷🇺

[BrianFullerPDX]

"We have to ask two questions"... Indeed, first, how would America feel if Russia put missiles in Cuba or Mexico? Much like Russia does when we talk about letting Ukraine put NATO missiles or troops on its border? Secondly, what are America's reasons for escalating this conflict? After all it's not Russia putting troops and missiles on our boarder, it's us putting troops and missiles on Russia's boarder.

[mcgmcg]

Historically, has Russia escalated tensions before taking direct military action? Sounds more like America's modus operandi.

[arniciaurelian]

If somebody thinks that Russia will let Ukraine out of its hand is wrong.

[suryamitra]

Four points on which I would appreciate your opinion

1. What if Russians just maintain the troop build up on the border with some waxing and waning of activity. There can be hardly any sanctions for troop activity on sovereign Russian soil, or Belarusian soil. Which side would fatigue first? The west with "NATO Unity" and the MSM with their ultra short attention span OR Russian military machine? As the winter gets worse, the gas shortages are going to bite, but the lack of gas sales are going to bite too.

2. Why now all of a sudden Russia got its dander up? Was there a covert fomenting by the western agencies and arming of the Ukrainian side that they got up to nearly launching a counterattack on the Donbas ethnic russians who are autonomously running that region? Russia got wind of it and moved the troops to the border. Zelensky seems like someone who would do it. Between the lines one can hear frequently that Ukraine is much better armed than in 2014.

3. I had to search a whole lot of reporting before I found this video, otherwise almost every media outlet seems to be toeing the "war is imminent" line and compete in "who can be the bigger jingo" contest. Does the west actually want war? The rhetoric coming from the dumb news anchors and a couple of "I need the face time on TV" senators seems like it. Poor Blinken and even Biden are trying to keep a cool lid on it, but these guys seem determined to make the world believe that Russia is going to move in in about 45 minutes.

4. In the long run, doesn't it make sense to have a bunch of neutral states between Russia and Western Europe than to be eyeball to eyeball with the Russians? Ukraine is never going to be in the Russian sphere after this. Why not NOT ADMIT it to NATO and let it be a buffer zone? Give them a few dollars and let them work it out till they can build institutions and evolve into a democracy over time. AND DONT FOMENT any more conflict between ethnic ukrainians and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. Right now they are on par with Egypt and Libya, right after the Arab spring. Just because you have an riot and then elections does not make you a democracy. You don't have fascist groups and put the ex-president on trial for high treason in democracy. They have long ways to go.

[markbantz]

I’m so happy we are out of Afganistan. Only people like Ian and the war mongers wanted to stay.

[godzillamothra]

why no western democracy activists suggest referendum for eastern Ukraine, supervised by the UN or other world body organization like EU, ASEAN, SCO etc? Did the voices of people in eastern Ukraine mean nothing to the western countries?

[earlybird-kisj]

The main problem is that radical elements within and neocons without Ukraine do not abide by the Minsk Agreements. One solution is that the Eastern Russian speaking provinces hold an internationally supervised referendum accepted by all which will determine their future.

[suhan]

Russia will invade till Dinieper river later they will even consider taking all Blacksea coast of Ukraine.

[TheSongsiawei]

Frieza can detect term, Bojo the clown cannot. Soviet Union can detect

[BobQuigley]

8 billion humans with another 80 million net new precious ones joining us annually could give a shit.

[ralphcantrell]

Don't expect a full-on invasion, huh. I guess this fellow has suffered a "full-on reality slap" since espousing that theory.

[Myname-ovmy]

Bla bla bla from the agressors .
Blaming Russia ? The world is not stupid

[Melitopol]

Lots of skilled IT professionals in Ukraine. So far they would have been careful not to perform cyberattacks that could be used as a pretext for Russian escalation. If Russia invades then there is no reason to hold back. And maybe someone anonymous will take sympathy with Ukraine and share some backdoors to critical systems in Russia?

[smurfsex]

If I had a dollar for every time one of Ian Bremmer's predictions or observations was wrong, I wouldn't be here typing. I would be on my private island somewhere in the south pacific sitting on the beach drinking margaritas.

[ezethe]

What the hell is this guy talking about? The glasses don't make u look smart at all. Are u auditioning for a job on CNN

[Telluwide]

Putin won't formerly invade Ukraine, costs too high and not enough support at home. I doubt he will even roll in tanks to take Donbass, which he could easily do with popular support at home and in Donbass.

What he will do is station a lot more troops not only along its border with Ukraine, but all along Belarus's border as well. Then, he may start stationing troops along Belarus's border with Poland. He may even start reinstalling Nuclear weapons back into Belarus (Infrastructure still there from Soviet days). That's just the beginning.

He will then wreck havoc on Ukraine's infrastructure (both cyber and physical, i.e. the power grid, shutting off gas supplies through their pipelines periodically etc.) Just enough to make it too insecure for foreign investors, who will be the next to leave on mass...Ukraine's already a risky investment...

This is before Putin starts talks with Cuba and Venezuela.... There's a lot he can do without formerly invading Ukraine, even Donbass. Thus avoiding any meaningful sanctions or the cutting off of SWIFT....