What's Going To Happen To Phoenix By 2050?

Phoenix. Suburbs. Golf Courses. Single Family Sprawl. America's least sustainable city is currently staring down a historic drought that could (hopefully) force it to change it's ways.

This video is about the water situation in Phoenix, the future difficulties we'll have in building housing for our growing population, and what's going to happen to the city in the future.

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[sierranexi]

"Why are there so many golf courses in the middle of the desert?"

Some guy at the 110th floor in NYC: "I need them"

[arnavsrikanth]

Phoenix should not exist let's be totally real

[jeffreywenger]

Even some rather smart urban planners I know have told me It was crazy to build Phoenix due to the water issue, and they would be shocked when I tell them that no, the crazy idea was developing agriculture, but that urban expansion actually creates a water surplus since urban land use is so much less water intensive than agriculture. Really glad to see a video that gets this issue correct! Well done!!

[spencerhon]

I'm an AZ native that comes from 6 generations of Arizonans. I love this state with all my heart (yes, even the blazing heat), but it's obviously hard to see what it has become. I don't even recognize it sometimes when I'm driving around... I'm happy to see the growth, but at the same time it hurts me to see so much change in areas that were so quiet. It's this contrast I've witnessed throughout my 35 years of life that has impacted me in a huge way. It hasn't made me want to move out of the state (there's too much good here), but it has me considering moving out of the Phoenix valley many times. Places like Show Low, Payson, Prescott, Sierra Vista, or Globe have always intrigued me as I've visited them bunches of times throughout the years. I'll always defend this land and what it has brought to my life, I just wish the future of the valley looked brighter.

[hung]

I’ll never feel bad for them. Pretty much all my family lives there. I remember in 2018 I was at my grandmas with all the family in town. Her neighborhood has a golf course. She wasn’t allowed to water her 20k yard but the golf course sprinklers ran every 2 hours so the grass didn’t burn doing the heat wave. It’s so ass backwards

[strongtowns]

Always tune in when you post, but what an awesome surprise to get a shoutout! Thanks for explaining incremental development so clearly, this is really crucial stuff.

P.S. when I (Mike) lived in Scottsdale, I applied to live at cul-de-sac! Too bad construction wasn’t completed in time before we ended up moving to Chicago. We should connect next time I’m in the valley!

[kylesandidge]

great to see a fellow arizonan posting videos about our urban planning woes in Phoenix, and what we need to do to overcome these obstacles. Really enjoying your videos dude

[MrLuigiFercotti]

Living in higher density needs to be compensated by the benefits of living close to town and city centers. Putting high density out in the suburbs is stupid. You still have drive everywhere, and get to listen to your neighbors yelling at each other.

[WolfSeril]

Thomas in 2023: "Phoenix unliveable by 2050? Doubt it."
Thomas in 2033: "How I BARELY escaped from the Phoenix Death Zone (Our tires MELTED!)"

[TheLiamster]

I predict that in the future, former rust belt cities will experience a population and economic boom as people move from the American Southwest due to affordability and climate change. The Great Lakes region has an abundant supply of water which could sustain a population several times larger than its current size.

[RomanBartocci]

“Grand is like a highway where you occasionally run into a stop light” was perhaps the best description of that odd avenue … made me LOL

[ddasdf-cl]

Almost seems like its a bit of a bad idea to built so many suburbs in the FUCKING

[MoonShine-on]

Phoenix will be fine lol. This guy needs to chill and find something to do. People have been living in the middle east for millennia.. every city has problems. If we listened to these guys, we'd have to vacate NYC, Miami, Nola, every city.

[beefxcake]

I've lived in phx for 25 years, i live in east mesa almost to AJ and im starting to see a few instances of old department stores, like the old k mart on power, that are empty getting turned into apartments that are surrounded by other stores. i hope to see more of that kind of change. there is so much wasted land where big box stores sit empty for 10+ years and if one does move in they just build a new one somewhere else. and just building smarter in general, you have to design for the heat and energy efficiency since we rely on AC for such a big chunk of the year and instead we build cheaply without any of our actual desert climate in mind.

[Frantastic]

I’m not convinced that the water issue will never happen as you seem to think. Too much short term thinking and profits prevent much change in this area.

[rustyshackleford]

I just moved away from Phoenix in the beginning of 2022 and the climate was a big contributing reason. Based on current trends, I don't see how the city or state will move to curb the urban heat island effect, reduce unnecessary water use for all the grass lawns and golf courses in Phoenix metro, or significantly reduce car use, especially as it is trending hotter every year. I lived at 32nd st and thunderbird, right off AZ 51 and very near PV mall. Valley metro's plans to build a light rail line to one of the more dense, walkable areas of the city were canceled. The line to westgate and metro center are tenuous and take FOREVER to build. Apartment buildings and townhomes were being blocked in the central corridor while single family housing subdivisions that are car dependent and water intensive are exploding in areas like deer valley, cave creek, anthem, queen creek and san tan valley, and of course verrado and buckeye. As much as I love so many things about Phoenix and Arizona as a whole, it's difficult to see a positive long term outcome for most of the valley. Would love to live in a place like culdesac, but it's taken years to get the first car-free development. There isn't currently enough density or transit infrastructure to support that in most of the rest of the valley, meaning more places like that may be DECADES away.

I feel like when people start to leave or when migration to maricopa county (and pinal county) starts to slow, the tax revenue for further development of transit infrastructure will dry up before enough can be built to make a truly walkable metro possible. That isn't even considering the outsized political power of NIMBYs in places like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Ahwatukee, Chandler, and Gilbert, many of which fight tooth and nail to prevent transit (especially rail) to come into their city.

[sillyhead]

I've always been impressed by this channel but this is the first video that shows me just how much deeper of a thinker you are than I am. Thank you for doing the work to make this information more easily understandable to people like me. I don't live in Phoenix but these concepts, I imagine, are applicable in more places than one. And thanks for using your platform to draw attention to Strong Towns. They may be the greatest force for good within world of city planning.

[disiostudio]

As a former city planner with a master's degree in geography, and as a Phoenix resident, I'm impressed with your facts and analysis. I applaud your video. There are a few considerations, however, that your viewers might overlook. Urban sprawl in Phoenix and elsewhere was encouraged by the construction of the interstate highway system and the automobile beginning in the 1950's (e.g. Marysvale). While land costs have been comparatively low and real estate boosterism has been an economic driver in Arizona, it is not unique to Phoenix (e.g. Levittown on Long Island, NY). Now, urban sprawl is reinforced by the growth of the Internet; people no longer need to work, live, shop, and socialize near where they choose to live. Population has grown everywhere and most jobs will continue to be in urban areas. In Arizona, residential areas as far away as Prescott, Arizona have been booming. So in actuality, Phoenix is not unlike cities everywhere in the world (including Europe and Asia) where prices in central cities have become relatively unaffordable as opposed to prices in suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas. Many people are also willing to pay higher prices to be close to urban amenities. In the case of Phoenix, the central area is relatively green (thanks to former orchards and the SRP) with most commercial services within a mile of home and major cultural amenities within fifteen minutes of driving time. Phoenix still has a lower cost of living than many large U.S. population centers, especially in nearby California and the colder climates of the Northeast and Northwest. The Phoenix City Council, in particular, has approved many mid-rise contractor-architecture multi-family developments in central Phoenix using the PUD provisions of it's zoning ordinance, akin to spot zoning often over the objections of NIMBY residents. The City's "General Plan" is written more as a grab bag of idealistic platitudes for politicians, developers, and public influencers than a blueprint for development. Your analysis of the water situation is largely correct. Urban development uses far less water than previous agriculture in the Valley of the Sun. As prices for water increase (Phoenix has substantially increased water rates in recent years), we can expect even more residents to abandon their interest in green lawns and move to other water conservation measures. New single-family homes tend to be larger (e.g. 2500 sq. ft or larger), have better weather insulation, and cover larger percentages of smaller residential lots. Also, the increasing efficiency of air conditioning technology and efficiency standards where air conditioning is ubiquitous and basic to Arizona living, will contribute to continuing livability in Phoenix even though the summers are clearly getting hotter and longer. Historically speaking, Phoenix should exist because of it's reliable water supply. Arizona is fortunate to have it's own large watershed and coolor weather in the mountainous areas between the desert valleys and the Colorado plateau which cover roughly one-third of the state of Arizona. Another long-term concern that you could add to your analysis, besides the impact of climate change and long-term droughts in the Southwest on the Colorado River and central Arizona watersheds, will be the increasing energy cost everywhere. Presumably that will also be mitigated by the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner and renewable energy as technology evolves.

[GaigeGrosskreutzGunClub]

I imagine a large influx of the population to the Southwest is older people - just imagine all these stroads filled with elderly drivers who will end up isolated in their expensive single family homes. With my grandparents' mental and physical health taking a turn for the worst, I pity what will become of these older folks and for the limited younger population and state sponsored services expected to care for them.

[SeaBassTian]

Tempe Cul-de-sac looks amazing, I'm sure they are having no shortage of people looking for these types of walkable communities.