How Ukraine Will Guarantee a Post-War Settlement with Russia

Recently, Zelensky suggested that Ukraine would either seek NATO membership or acquire nuclear weapons to try to enforce a potential agreement with Russia. This video examines why such measures are necessary, how plausible each option is, and what are the plausible alternatives.

0:00 Ukraine's NATO versus Nukes Pitch
0:47 How to Enforce a Settlement
4:36 Ukrainian NATO Membership
8:08 Would Russia Be Okay with Ukraine in NATO?
9:51 Ukrainian Nuclear Weapons
14:01 Building a Nuclear Weapon with Uranium
17:30 Building a Nuclear Weapon with Plutonium
19:11 How the Other Countries Would Respond
21:23 What Else Can Ukraine Do?

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By IAEA Imagebank:

By IAEA Imagebank:

By RIA Novosti:

By President of Ukraine:

[Gametheory]

Anything interesting happening in South Korea today?

[ianng]

"Peaceful nuclear device"

So Civ 6 Nuclear Gandhi is historically accurate then.

[SeemoreDunkan]

New solution: Trade Hungary for Ukraine in NATO and see if Turkey follows

[awesomehpt]

And in other news. The Syrian civil war just restarted and the president of South Korea is attempting a coup.

Seriously these times we’re living in are too interesting for my liking.

[artemsverhunov]

I think, you underestimate the power of "nothing to lose stance". Unfortunately, Ukraine is closer and closer to this position because of its so-called allies and its inner problems.

[FinallyAlmino]

"posted 53 seconds ago".. I never knew youtube counted it that closely

[richard]

19:55 South Africa produced a nuclear bomb during a war. Their nuclear program ran during the South African border wars with Angola during the 70s, with a test in 1976, 1-2 years after Cuba sent troops and got directly involved with the war on Angola’s side.

[x]

Lines on map of Korean peninsula maybe?

[billtwok]

One fact about nuclear weapons is that every country that has ever tested a nuke got it right on the FIRST TRY. It is not extremely complicated for any engineer and physicist duo.

[stephenfowler]

It took the US less than four years to create a plutonium bomb. And that was starting from scratch. The process for producing plutonium is well known and could be quickly established. Ukraine is well set with nuclear scientists.

[TheSpectralFX]

19:00 William makes one critical assumption here, he assumes they were not already covertly working on it since 2014.

I am going to be real here, if a superpower annexed a significant portion of my territory while the world did virtually nothing about it... I think that's what any leadership would have done.

[JamesPechur]

@10:30 on: You do realize that all those nukes Ukraine gave up were BUILT, including the ICBMs, by Ukraine. Making nukes does NOT become a lost art.

[hellman]

All of this assumes Ukraine hasn’t gotten started on the plutonium yet. It’s a large country with mountains in the west, intelligent and determined people.

[lacklustermathie]

Canada doesn't enrich uranium. CANDU reactors run on natural uranium. The uranium may have been mined in Canada, but it would have had to have been enriched elsewhere.

[charlesjmouse]

Ah, the fundamental weakness of Democracy: "Why should I make myself unpopular by tackling a hard problem today when it will be somebody else's problem tomorrow? Even though I know leaving it for tomorrow will make things worse." Unfortunately there is nothing better.
An admitted oversimplification: If Ukraine is given the resources to defeat Russia today, not only is that a good thing for everyone (Russians included) but there would be no issue with Ukraine joining NATO for ongoing security. But instead we discuss a list of very unhappy alternates.

The fundamental issue is given the option Russia will consider any 'negotiated' deal as no more than a useful hiatus while it rearms and tries again in future. Knowing this and knowing that they will likely be worse off in an expected future conflict Ukraine has no option but to take all it can now and seek to ensure some kind of security for that future, whatever that might be.
How do we know a 'rest' followed by restarting aggression in future is what the Russians want? Putin has said so himself on more than one occasion. His state-run media openly discuss this on an almost daily basis. There has been no fundamental change in how the Russian state has behaved and dealt with it's neighbors for all the 100's of years it has existed - this isn't a matter of current policy, it is a cultural norm. One that is reinforced every time Russia gets in to a conflict regardless of the outcome.

[daniels]

"Hi, delivery of 40, 000 smoke detectors for vova?"

[m.streicher]

You're making the faulty assumption that they started today, or whenever the dichotomy was first brought up.

My bet is that they've been arranging for this for the better part of 2 years.

[GolanL]

Thank you for your hard work, I enjoy your videos.
It's not much but here is a comment to boost engagement for the algorithm as a token of appreciation.

[theafro]

I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't already a small facility processing plutonium in Ukraine right now, maybe even one that's been operating for a year or two. Why wouldn't they?

[mol]

Zelenski’s requests are Very Reasonable, how could Ukraine guarantee its own security without nuclear weapons?