How lies destroy armies - Lies, coverups, and Russian failures in Ukraine

Sponsored by Morning Brew

A note on враньё "Vranyo" : In this video I use the term "Vranyo" to describe a particular pattern or type of lying. Consulting with many Russian speakers in preparation for this segment, i got many conflicting definitions of враньё with some suggesting it was derogatory, others that there was no difference between it and ложь, while others said it was the perfect term for the phenomenon described.

In the end I have used it because it is a neat term to describe a complex practice/phenomenon, but understand that it is being used as a label, not as an unambiguous code word for these practices of collective, knowing deception.

Description:
The performance of a military system is about more than the sum of its equipment, manpower, and training. Culture and practices are critical.

The Russian army appears to suffer from serious cultural issues. Corruption is a key one, while the practice of making up obvious lies to cover up the real state of affairs (which everyone then goes along with) and telling the boss what they want to hear at all costs - those practices enable corruption to thrive, and seriously undermine battlefield decision making.

In this episode, we look at the culture of deception in the Russian army, explore some of the common complaints, and discuss some ways it may (I am not a Kremlinologist) potentially impact or have impacted Russian decision making in Ukraine.

Patreon:

Caveats:
As noted below in sourcing, the existence of "Vranyo" is a cultural phenomenon that is hard to measure. While we can find evidence of it at a macro level, attestations for its prevalence are based on interviews, anecdotes, and complaints from former conscripts, serving personnel, and ordinary Russians.

As such this video should be taken as describing a phenomenon and some of the damage it can cause - but I do not make any assertion over exactly how widespread it is.

I also stress that this sort of lying appears in many organisations where people are encouraged 'to 'tell the boss what they want to hear'

I am also not a Kremlin whisperer - so my discussion of how Vranyo at that level is obviously purely hypothetical.

Sources and extra reading:
The Russian Way of War - Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernisation of the Russian Ground Forces (Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth)

Opposing force tactics, TC 7-100.2

Composite credits to the work of translators of Russian commentary like Dmitri of Wartranslated

TASS on Fake News Laws

Translation of alleged letter by the 155th regarding the incompetence and deception of Rustam Muradov

Russian Denial of the above

Discussion of the alleged purge of the FSB 5th Service:

Kadyrov threatens to brief Putin

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:31 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:12 — SPONSOR: MORNING BREW
00:03:21 — "Vranyo" - A Culture of Lies
00:03:33 — What's in a Word
00:05:02 — Rejecting Reality & Substituting Your Own
00:06:33 — History & Collective Participation
00:08:46 — Stocks vs Soldiers
00:09:07 — Motivation
00:10:16 — Involuntary Participation
00:12:55 — Compounding Falsehood
00:14:42 — Militaries as Networked Systems
00:15:03 — War is not an RTS
00:16:37 — Information Flow Enables Decision Making
00:17:46 — Why is the Russian Army so Vulnerable
00:18:02 — The RUssian Way of War
00:18:38 — War as an Equation
00:20:38 — Forces and Means
00:23:33 — Echelonment (aka Leming Attacks)
00:26:06 — Rigidity and Commander Centric Decision Making
00:28:46 – Objective: Fortressgrad
00:30:25 — The Assault on Fortressgrad
00:31:46 — Start at the Bottom
00:33:35 — The Officers Get Involved
00:35:14 — A Fine Airforce Showing
00:36:08 — Garbage In...
00:38:17 — ...Garbage Out
00:40:52 — Smile For the Cameras
00:41:31 — A Doomed Venture
00:42:23 — Pervasive Complaints
00:45:23 — Vranyo All the Way to the Top
00:46:46 — Understanding Ukraine
00:50:07 — Understanding The Russian Army
00:52:12 — Understanding the Russian Economy & the West
00:53:55 — Understanding Progress
00:54:55 — Tragic Results
00:58:02 — Can You Fix It?
00:58:34 — Failure-Safe Systems
01:00:07 — Trust But Verify
01:01:04 — Entrenched Culture
01:02:16 — Conclusions
01:03:51 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Thanks also to those Russians and Ukrainians who put up with my questions of provided input into this and other segments - and thank you to those who have offered to be interviewed but who I have not yet gotten to. I am no more a journalist than I am a Kremlinologist, but I greatly appreciate your ongoing input.

I will note however that I was never given a consistent definition of vranyo. some said it was just lying with deliberate I'll intent, others said it was systemic I nature. I use the word as shorthand here for a culture of collective lying and deception, but bear in mind that it is not a clean "textbook" definition.

And, as always, thank you to all of you watching. I couldn't ask for a better viewer base and it was the success of the first video on Corruption that gave me the confidence to cover this topic rather than just sticking to, as they say, 'things that go boom.'

Finally - remember that as with corruption, we're talking about a cultural phenomenon here rather than a 'hard science' issue like system specifications, so please understand the inherent limitations around the evidence used (which is, out of necessity, at least partially anecdotal).

[rockbutcher]

To put the depth to which "Vranyo" is engrained in the Russian culture, I'll share this story. In 1991 when the wall came down, there were a lot of Russian Geologists suddenly available to work in other markets. Canada had a diamond rush going at the time and my company hired 3 of them, since Russians have experience with diamond production. One day, when I picked Victor up at the airport, I asked him, "How are things in Russia?" He replied, "Do you want the long story, or short story?" I asked for the short one, He said, "Good." Then I asked for the long version and he replied, "Not good." 🤣🤣 At least his sense of humor was intact.

[davidcorriveau]

This video had one of my favorite lines from the 'old' Soviet era echoing through my head; 'They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.' 30ish years later and the problem remains the same.

[marthas]

Decades ago, I heard a story about a lowly aircraft-carrier sailor who lost his wrench. He'd been working up on the flight deck and knew he was supposed to report the loss -- if the wrench was sucked into a jet engine the results would be catastrophic. Though distressed, he reported his mistake to his chief, who reported it up the chain. Flight operations were immediately shut down, planes already in the air were told to circle, and a FOD (foreign object damage) walkdown was conducted, all at the cost of $millions in jet fuel, flight time, etc. Meanwhile, the lowly sailor checked his gear one last time and found the wrench in his overall pockets. Once again, he was distressed, but duly reported the find. Flight operations were re-started, the circling planes were brought in, and the sailor and his chief were called before the Captain... who THANKED and commended them for doing the right thing. Every sailor on the ship heard the story within about 5 minutes and understood that doing the right thing would be rewarded, not punished. THAT is how vranyo is defeated. THAT is leadership.

[Bob-qkzg]

Old Soviet joke:
Two cadets in military school graduated at the same time. Ten years later they met at a street corner. One was a captain and the other a general. "How did you make general so quickly?" the captain asked.
The general picked up a rock, listened to it, handed it to the captain and asked, "Tell me what this rock says."
The puzzled captain put it to his ear and exclaimed, " It says nothing."
"That is why you fail."

[KingsandGenerals]

There is a Russian saying atributed to various writers/intellectuals. Something like "They talk about patriotism again. Someone somewhere is stealing". Not a new phenomenon, but something deeply rooted in history since possibly before Ivan the Terrible.
Brilliant video, as always. You are #1 channel that I suggest people to watch when they ask me for more info on this conflict.

[anonyshinki]

As a native Russian speaker, I think a big part of враньё is that it's not just shameless lying, but also _chronic_ lying. You say it more often about people who are constantly lying.

[Askhat]

A Russian joke about two friends.
-When I was serving in the army, I was guarding a top secret missile system.
-Why are you telling me this if it's top secret?
-Secret is whether that thing is working or not.

[kyrylosovailo]

I am actually impressed that you decided to translate "vranyo" not simply as lies, but as the whole culture of lying.

[sushiping]

"If the weather bureau predicts a massive fire season ahead, the correct response is to thank them for their service and prepare for fire season. Not to fire them and find someone who will predict something a little less demanding that can be cheaply dealt with." Perun using good old Aussie politics as an example once again.

[Артемий-лд]

My father is a retired colonel of Russian rear services. It always amazed me how many stories that he shared with me were connected to corruption. Here is a classic example: an inspector comes to check a warehouse with some equipment. As everything seems to be right with this one, he leaves. At this moment all equipment is transferred to the nearby warehouse, which (for some mysterious reasons) is empty. The next day inspector comes to check it, and sees that everything is in its place.
World's second army? Yeah, sure

[geocb]

I served in the US Army is an intelligence unit, as a wheeled mechanic, that had a very limit number of vehicles, and those mostly consisted of soft top humvees used exclusively for stateside transport for training. I still remember the system the army had in place that once a significant fault is found, aka a deadlining fault that makes the vehicle NMC, you have 90 days to fix that issue. If you did not get that done then that issue would get reported all the way up the maintenance chain, even to people and leadership outside of the unit. This led to many many nights on day 89 where not one person would leave until that truck is fixed. Looking back it would have been real easy to say "Yeah that truck it's good to go", but this is how catastrophes such as this happen. One small lie snowballs out of control.

[davidburton]

A very mundane personal example.

I worked in a grocery store, and they put me in charge of natural, organic, premium hippie foods. Well, when I started I had product on the shelf that had been expired for over five years. I started clearing it out and updating inventory, and I was counselled by my manager for my bad performance numbers because of all of the shrink (expired products being disposed of).

It would have been better for my performance to keep that junk on the shelf and on the books, rather than get rid of possible dangerous product and get fresh product to replace it. My manager would have preferred that lie as well, because the shrink wouldn't appear on his reports, either.

[tommynguyen]

When someone asks what my favourite weekend hobby is, never in my life I would have thought watching a 1hr PowerPoint presentation would be the one. Looking forward to this Russian corruption sequel. Been a fan and a regular watcher since "All Bling No Basics"

Keep up the good work Perun 👍

[BrokenMedic]

I enlisted in the US Army in 98 and hated PMCS and the time it took going through check list to see every point of failure was either combat ready, or if minor repairs are needed by the squad (like low tire pressure, grease point, fluid levels needing topped off, and of similar issues) or if needed dead lined for shop repair until it meets combat readiness standards. At no point was I ever in fear for reporting items as deadlined, in fact it was encouraged. You were only as effective as the equipment you needed worked properly. The US military in general supports us with the gear and equipment to reduce the chance of lost members. We’re well trained and a great asset that is becoming harder and harder to replace. Pilots are encouraged to eject a multi million dollar assets because they are more important to the cause. Now I’m a paramedic and same can be said of me. I’m only as good as the equipment I have and without it I’m really just a bystander that knows CPR. Companies recognizes that and provides you we new and better equipment to make our jobs better.

[JZ]

As an Afghanistan veteran, this one is painful to watch. It is almost a perfect description of the U.S. military during the war. Mid to senior level officers and politicians continually painted the war in an overly positive light, but forbade others in the military from openly criticizing them, on penalty of criminal charges.

Interestingly, the Intelligence Community, separated from the pressure to achieve operational results, mostly predicted the general trajectory of the war accurately (though not always the timing), but they were ignored by politicians and senior military leadership alike.

[ohmanno]

"It is amazing how many problems you can solve, once you´re no longer tethered to reality" - dude, you made my day! highly appreciate your content!

[kostakatsoulis]

*New character unlocked unlocked: Sergeant Bicepski*

*Strengths:*

-Actually competent NCO

-Courageous in the face of overwhelming odds, will do anything for his men

-All round an actually pretty good dude

*Flaws:*

-Believes wholeheartedly in the Russia government

-Not a whole lot of power to change anything on his own

-Liable to get himself killed before his redemption arc

*New character unlocked: Captain Bullshitski*

*Strengths:*

-Relatively effective commander

-High-born upbringing, fairly well-off

*Flaws:*

-Cares more about power than his own men

-Knows exactly how the government works but also knows he can't do anything to change it, nor does he care enough to anyway

[entertherat]

Netflix needs to produce a miniseries about Private Conscriptovich, Colonel Kleptovsky, and General Oligarkov. I would watch the crap out of it.

[camradrip]

I once read about Chinese Emperors who lived in the Golden Palace, performing rituals and having little idea what was going on in the country. Up to the point where tribute to conquerors was called "gifts for the vassals".
I thought, well, that's the past. Now the ruler just can't get away from reality like that. I was wrong.