5 states standing in way of BJP ‘Mission 370’ & what it can learn from Rajiv’s 1984 Lok Sabha tally

#cuttheclutter #bjp #congress #elections2024
BJP has embarked on a mission to win 370 seats by itself in the upcoming general election. In Episode 1410 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta analyses electoral data to explain how this target is inspired by Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress’ 1984 tally & how a few states and allies stand in the way of BJP achieving this zenith of parliamentary politics.
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[Gappasappa]

Rajiv was a sympathy vote. Modi is pro incumbency vote.

[homt]

Why stark silence on how the Gang Rapist of Sandeshkhali being protected by Mamta govt against HC ruling..

[va]

BJP is realistically getting anywhere between 320 - 345. NDA can near 370 - 400

But one things for sure, 2024 is a done deal.

[sankalp]

The party that got 414 is struggling to get 10% of those seats today. That should be the real CTC topic: why INC, under Rajiv's son Rahul, is being defied by India's 25 states.

[nealdee]

You cannot compare present-day modern India with India of that era. Back then, India had just recently gained independence, India was still figuring out politics, illiteracy was high, and Congress was the de-facto political party. In the present circumstances, it is almost impossible to reach those high numbers by any political party and it will remain so in the future too. In fact, the numbers that BJP and NDA are getting right now, despite there being so many established political parties like Congress and many regional parties, is miraculous in of itself. Modi has done the impossible in the modern era.

[visheshdubey]

You know the 303 seat BJP did changes which are much more lasting and impactful than what 414 seat congress could do.

[pulipakasrikiran]

You can add the 25 seats of ap to bjp no matter who wins full support will be given to bjpfrom andhra.

[tejaspb]

What a wrong comparison.. it’s like comparing highest score in 20 overs to 50 overs. BJP won’t even fight 500 seats.. maybe 450 whereas Congress fought all seats alone in 1984. 84 was preceded by Indira’s assassination.. 2024 would be pro incumbency verdict…

[vamsi]

Seems like Congress and its sympathizers getting ready to claim Moral victory saying ‘We stopped NDA from crossing 400’ and on this note get the launch pad ready again for Rahul (After so many agains)

[AK-ywqs]

SG looks very happy that BJP can't beat 1984 numbers,
As Galib said "Dil ko khush rakhne ko Ghaalib yeh khayaal achcha hai"

[RahulGhugari]

Dear Shekhar,

I appreciate your recent CTC. I struggle to understand why Rajiv Gandhi is often credited for the 414 seats won in 1984. Considering that Indira Gandhi had secured around 350 seats in the preceding elections, Rajiv Gandhi merely added another 61 to the existing tally, largely due to sympathy and nationalist sentiment. In contrast, the BJP's remarkable increase of 166 seats in the 2014 elections is noteworthy. Additionally, the outcome of the 1989 elections further adds complexity to this discussion.

Best regards, [Your Name]

[sunitareddy]

414 was in shok sabha not in lok sabha

[HeavenRacer]

370 or not they will reach nearer to 370 for sure.

[sitarampradhan]

Due to Indira Gandhi Hindus massively voted for Rajib Gandhi. But Rajib Gandhi betrayed Hindus.

[rajsinghji-]

Shekhar ji, the rise of regional parties across India that has plagued India since 1984 is because people were fed up with the Politics of Congress.

BJP is not only fighting the unpopularity of Congress, it is actually fighting the unpopularity of a “National” party with the regional parties.

This will take time but BJP is on its way forward. Imagine, having a single party majority in 2014 when we had forgotten that it could ever be possible.

[sabertooth]

With a simple statement he has changed the dimension, now instead of winning elections now the opposition and critiques target is whether they ll get 400 or not. Are you getting what happened here? Modi Shah thinks in different dimension

[orunabho]

I think, getting 10% of that 414 or 41 seats for Congress(Rahul) would a real challenge, forget about Modi and BJP.

Maybe SC should do a CTC on that, from where will Congress(R) manage to sneakin that number 41 and from where and why?

[jaysahup]

what credit or achievement rajiv has when he became PM ? forced to became PM unwillingly upon his mother's death sentimental support across country ! SG feel happy on those numbers of earlier congress but today's BJP earned it ! the name fame and respect which india got globally in 10 years of current BJP is phenomenal !

[d]

BJP is definitely getting more than 303 votes, likely 310-335. NDA is getting more than 350 votes, likely 360-375 but not 370 and 400. For that, they need to improve on certain regions like Kerala, TN, Punjab and Odisha.

[orunabho]

The real analysis should be - will Rajiv Gandhi's son will manage to get - 10% of 414 or 1%.

Above the Tropic of Cancer line - most likely zero, but for a couple of seats in feudal Bihar.

Below the Tropic of Cancer ? Zero again or a total 4, all from Telangana?

In Kerala the communist will fight all out to retain some relevance, leaving Rahal no choice but to run away to Telangana.

Same with Tamil Nadu, DMK will be fighting for its own political relevance - the battle line has been drawn. Annamalai is here to destroy the DMK ideology in next 5-6 years.

Karnataka zero. People have already suffering from their mistake there.

Andhra zero. Chandrababu Naidu will be back. Congress is a deadly name there in anycase.