Operations Management using Excel: Seasonality and Trend Forecasting

In this video I explain how to create a forecasting model in Excel for a data set that involves both trend and seasonality. I chose not to de-seasonalize data set before finding the trend parameters.
Dataset URL: Copy and Paste it into Excel or work in Google Sheets

I posted a follow up video in which you can handle multiple forecasts at the same time for multiple SKUs (Stock Keeping Units).

These videos are created for the students at The College at Brockport, State University of New York. However anyone can benefit from them as they should work for any Operations Management class.

[goforwardify]

THIS VIDEO IS SO UNDERRATED, IT SHOULD BE ON THE TOP OF THE PAGES

[fabianl]

This video is literally a must for everyone that works as a planner. It’s one of the best educational videos out there

[debanshumajumdar]

Dear Mustafa sir, the whole YouTube community, and the whole world are blessed to have you here. You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed. It was like you were reading my mind and answering all the questions that I have.
Thank you sir

[jamesjennings]

This is absolutely an AWESOME technique! The seasonal adjustment is exactly what I needed and I put this into actual use -- Thank you for helping me look good to my boss!

[NRBhgfdkjsvfdkjl]

Wow, incredibly helpful. I learned more from this video than I've learned from the actual class all semester.

[zorkminer]

I don't comment much, but this video is amazing. I'm impressed that a video so short could be so informative.

[dwnttttttyyyyypppppp]

Many videos are watching, so im here and only this video I got the answer. Thankyou, love from Indonesia.

[bensmith]

This is much clear explanation than my prof who has 30 years of experience. Thank you so much.

[abhinavgupta]

You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed.

[rounaksinghbuttar]

God you're a genius. No one else has explained forecasting using Excel for Production and Operations Management as well as you sir.

[deuskrieg]

This video gets the number 1 sport for the most informative 13 minutes of my planning life.

[mcanbolat]

Couple of people criticized that I didn't de-seasonalize before finding the trend. No one can prove that the model will be superior if we de-seasonalize. Below is a link with a small simulation with random dataset. You can refresh it in Excel using F9 or you can enter a value in an empty cell to refresh in Google. I calculated the MAPE for both deseasonalized and not deseasonalized models. I have shown empirically that there is no obvious benefit of removing seasonality before finding the trend parameters.

[godfreyharris]

Dr. Mustafa is a Genous. He makes complex work easy to do.

[drinkbeerandchillwithmzohm]

You should get an award for this video sir 🙌🏿🙌🏿🙌🏿

[shikhajaiswal]

This is the best video I came across on model for forecast

[selimcanpolat]

just predicted my future bills on excel w/ this method, thanks a lot!

[peterdoherty]

It was great when you taught me years ago and it's even better now that I have some real world experience. Fantastic!

[matiuszhu]

Thank god i found your video man. You don't know how much I needed this before my interview.

[jabulanisello]

This is the best explanation I've found and it basically answered even the questions I didn't know I had. Thank you. I've subscribed to your channel as well.

[daniel_ptt]

Sir, you are the man of career development, love your videos