Seasonality and Trend Forecasting Video 2: Multiple SKUs

This is a follow-up video to

In this video I explain how to find seasonality adjusted trend forecast for multiple products (SKUs) at the same time. I chose not to de-seasonalize data set before finding the trend parameters.
Dataset URL: Copy and Paste it into Excel or work in Google Sheets

[gunasai]

Man, this is such a brilliant video! Thank you so much for this!
I enjoyed every bit of it and will help me so much at my current work!

Thanks a ton again, you are the best!

[Ajchester]

Doc, your videos are incredible. . I mean absolutely so well done. Explained clearly, easy to replicate and apply to my profession. Thank you 🙏🏻

[tansutazegul]

Dear Mustafa Hocam
As a sales professional, what you have tought me will enlighten my forecast figures so as to determine the right target in the future.
Çok teşekkürler üstad!

[Cess]

These are extremely valuable videos and great content. Thank you!

[ilonasemicheva]

I've been looking for you for all my life!!! Thank you very much!!!

[oanaivan]

Feel so happy! I actually learnt something great and practical. Thank you!!

[elizabethbibakova]

It was extremely helpful! I appreciate your efforts, you really make a lot to educate people
Wish you the best in your career, you really inspired me to learn more about Excel
Thank you so much❤️

[Bethune]

studied supply chain and all this manually 1998....we were not explained any of this in you for share...wow

[naweedahmady]

Amazing video. Thanks for creating it.

[zainumer]

This is amazing ! my company actually applied this one for its Demand Planning Project. Here's a request could you please make a video on Predicting Optimal Pricing point using multiple regression model where our variables could be historical Sales data, Competitors' prices, Cost etc.(You can use other relevant variables to make it more realistic) .I work as Pricing Analyst at one of the leading retail chains and there are 100k+ SKUs so we need to decide on best possible prices. I tried to develop one such model but didn't succeed due to P-value/t-value tests . But the good thing is it helped me introduce this idea of Regression into my company that eventually led us to watch this video and utilized it for Demand Planning.

[anjelika_cali]

great tutorial! what formula would you use for 2021 forecasting taking into account a significant drop in demand due to Covid? would you use a range for just 2020 in the TREND formula?

[esee]

This is great! Thank you for your video! What do you do with forecasted negative values? Obviously, I cannot have -4 units produced.

[Acalin]

Great stuff Mustafa! A lot of e-commerce companies I work with would benefit from implementing a forecast like this. Question for you. A chunk of clients fall in the category of only having 6-12 months of data. So they don't have a full 365-day cycle in their data. If I'm dealing with say, 6 months of data and could get a few parameters from the customer, do you have an approach you'd recommend on how to create a forecast? Customers are in all sorts of industries. A lot of clothing, sports equipment, gifts, personal care products (some subscription offerings). I know there are obvious limitations, but wondering if you could give me a point in the right direction. Thanks!

[geetsharma]

Hi, it's really very helpful. Can you drop a video over Generating Bottoms-up forecast and sku splits at an Item/Week/Location level??

[aprilmccue]

I love your videos too!

I have a question - at my work we measure unique clients for a project. We also could benefit from predicting total unique clients for the year. I am not positive if there is a consistent trend each month, but it seems as the contract year begins we have many more unique clients than per month at the end of the contract

I would hope we could calculate the trends in monthly declines (which I think is the slope or sindex, I cannot apply my knowledge yet)

But I want to predict/forecast the rest of the year based on actual progress (so I hope to update it monthly/quarterly with the actual unique clients and the formula can adjust for more accurate forecasts each month quarter)

Is this possible?

[sumanthks]

Thank you for the share. How would you calculate the accuracy of this forecast? and is there a way to forecast if we have different origins to fulfil the demand?

[SantoshDas-qcwj]

Hi, Pls. suggest when I have data set for the period of Apr-19 to Sept-21, I wanted to derive forecast for the period of Nov-21 to May-21 using this data set. I had tried to derive forecast looking at your video, but no value no value generated.

[danishalam]

Can you do a video or suggest the best method in excel to predict multiple products following intermittent demand pattern. Thanks your lectures are inspiring.

[thomasmorton]

This is extremely helpful and insightful. I have one question regarding seasonality where the value is 0 for several months where product is not available due to growing seasons. The zero is impacting the trend and average...

[kavyaanand]

Thanks for Video!!! Average of()/Average() Seasonal Index in formula if some SKU i dont have last year same month data then forecast will get 0, how we can calculate