Could Farage Make the Tories Extinct?

As we get closer to the election, parties are scrambling, trying to convince that they are the right choice. Reform UK is a party we'd generally assume would struggle at this - but their polling is at an astonishing upwards trend. So, what is going on with Reform and could they actually replace the Tories?

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[RyanDB]

Please don't give Farage credit for destroying the Conservative Party. They've worked so, so hard doing it themselves - they deserve the credit

[JamesFeenstra]

And please, let it never be forgotten that when the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party merged, they originally called themselves the Conservative Reform Alliance Party. It took a couple of weeks of every political satirist in Canada taking the piss for them to realize that they had named themeslves CRAP.

[albertbrowne]

Don't blame Nigel, Richard or anyone else for the extinction of the Tories. The Tories are entirely responsible for their own extinction.

[johnpotts]

If you're looking for a new party that displaced an existing one, the best example (in the UK) would be Labour replacing the Liberals as the main opposition to the Tories about a century ago. Though I can't see it happening in today - the Tory party have historically shown a remarkable ability to re-invent themselves over the centuries. I certainly don't believe Reform will displace them, any more than UKIP did.

[jameshenry]

The UK voting system severely reduces the chances of any major changes.

[johng.]

pretty sure that the Tory's don't need any help on that matter.

[djh]

The Conservative Party is not exactly “conserving” the country. Will Reform conserve better, who knows?

[TeaPea]

Interestingly, it highlights how unfair first past the post is when a party can get such a high percentage of votes but so little representation in parliament.
Voting in the UK is a case of voting for what you believe is the least bad option from a choice of two.

[VanderWolls]

I’m surprised you didn’t choose to use Labour’s own rise over the Liberal party as an example.

[nikolay-sr]

The fundamental problem with FPTP voting is that most votes will be wasted anyway, particularly if there are several parties. A party can only convince their voters that no votes for them will be wasted by.. winning every constituency they run in. Unless of course you switch to proportional representation

[forianproductions]

Actually, this happened in the UK before, although in an insanely extreme condition. The Liberal Party (ancestor of Liberal Democrats) were in power during WW1. This resulted in Labour basically replacing them. Although they weren't wiped out, they definitely lost much of their importance in the politics of the UK.

[giantWario]

The important thing to note here is that the progressive conservative in Canada essentially got killed by two parties, not just one. I'm certain that their name already seems confusing to most British and Americans here, what was a ''progressive conservative''? They were essentially a party that was economically conservative but socially progressive. This was to try to appeal to the Québec electorate. Since both Reform and the Bloc Québécois emerged almost at the same time, it means that they lost the votes of the progressives in Québec and the conservatives in the Prairies at the same time.

So basically, I think Reform can't kill the Tories in the UK because they're being attacked by only one party that's trying to appeal to their more right-wing voters. This means that the more center-right Tories led by Sunak will keep filling a role that Reform UK by itself can't take away from them.

[austrolapuis]

That Minecraft TNT made me give a thumbs up haha

[JoEsMhOe]

Canadian here, and wanted to share some additional info on the PC and Reform merger.

There was an internal power struggle within the party for leadership between Peter McKay who represented the PC party of the Conservative Party of Canada and Stephen Harper who led the Reform party of the merged party.

Harper eventually won out and most (if not all) the former PC party members left the party which helped shape the modern day Conservative Party of today who now fall closer in line with the Republicans on social issues.

[LondongirlMaryam]

Well, for the first time ever in the UK, a political party owns two TV channels, GB News and Talk TV. How is that not illegal?

[diegoarmando]

Preston Manning was deeply unpopular East of Manitoba.

The problem for the Canadian right was that his candidates still won just enough votes to allow the Liberal Party to sweep Ontario.

[KingArthurWs]

I've been watching this for months, thought it was pretty strange how nobody was covering this convergence in the polls.

[knarfxd]

Farage killed the tories the moment he forced them into brexit lmao

[jonathantatler]

The tories are completely split, as their current internal war shows, what a gift to the UKs electorate if the simply emploded!

[Geffo]

Farage is just a political vandal.
But he would have actually achieved something worthwhile if he brings down the Tories.