The Largest Mortgage Meltdown In American History Happening Right Now

Many people in finance have been trying to predict where the next major crisis will begin. We remember that in 2008, during the Great Recession, we saw the consequences of the collapse in bank lending tied to residential real estate, which triggered a domino effect that not only shook the US economy but also had global ramifications. Since then, numerous experts have attempted to identify the next potential economic bubble, but so far, no one has been correct. Not since 2008 have we experienced anything close to this. However, there are now new signs of an emerging crisis that everyone seems to be brushing off. This looming threat could potentially have a more devastating impact than the 2008 crisis, possibly even rivaling some of the worst economic storms America has had to endure. And it's origin story is actually pretty easy to recognize.

[austinbar]

Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

[Agonarch]

I’ve been following you for roughly 2 years. I’ve waited and waited for a housing market crash since 2018. Each year being told it’s coming it’s a bad time to buy. Clearly I’ve been wrong multiple times at this point. For anyone who reads this buy your house when it’s right for you. Don’t wait for a crash or for someone on YouTube to tell you when. Do what’s best for you. Just my 2 cents at this point.

[qg]

I gotta say this channel is more of a “I’m going to predict this so much that when it happens I’ll be right” than a helpful channel.

I swear I’ve watched this video multiple times every year from this guy.

[mickrispy]

I agree with Warren Buffett, the commercial real estate market is about to have a massive crash. People are just working from home now that use to occupy those spaces. But the major thing, banks should get absolutely no bail out- they can afford to take the hit and climb themselves out. This certainly will not crash banks, but they can’t be using tax payer money as a piggy bank for risk they assumed.

[homerj]

Good. And hopefully it affects those people and LLCs that owns 3 to 5 properties who uses them as AirBNB business or a way to claim losses in their taxes. They are already taking away homes from potential homeowners.

[williamjohnson]

I worked for the 2nd largest REIT in the country in the mid-70's. More than 75% of their loans went bad. So they took over the properties, filed chapter 11, became a property management company, and came out of bankruptcy a few years later. Every generation has to learn how risky commercial real estate is.

[charlessoukup]

It's ALWAYS...ALWAYS a Housing Crisis!! It's just that only now NO ONE that needs one can afford to buy a House! Investors are the only ones buying houses!

[kalef]

People feel OBLIGATED and ENTITLED to zero risk these days.

[ashsobhani]

Good point. Most people wouldn't even care to pay close attention to these events, thinking only one big event would collapse the ponzi. It's the small iterative events that actually drive the big event. Play close attention to the details, not headlines.

[brucebaraniak]

A 50 % housing price correction is a necessity for the working class Americans . We are patiently waiting for it to inevitably happen.

[Tdaz]

Turn all these commercial buildings into residential sounds like that’s what the market is asking for

[uuogrbo]

In 2010 I bought my house in government repo for 20k . 2000 Sq ft brick home built in 60's .. in a tiny panhandle ghost town in Texas. Couldn't care less what happens to the mortgage markets. Or the job markets . Or any other markets. Easy to raise and grow your own animals and feed for them ... rabbits, chickens, cattle, goats, pigs, ... fishing in the creeks ... spend less than 800 a month all bills and insurance .. cake walk living miles from the nearest living wokester. Not bad.

[SugaShark]

Great analysis. Straight facts.

You know we're getting closer and closer with how many people you upset just by stating reality.

[joelcrow]

Personally I don't think I will ever buy a house.. certainly not the traditional 5/3 or whatever. HUGE money out of pocket (with all kinds of character attacking restrictions before you can even give it to them), tons of taxes and fees, HOAs taking more money and restricting my use of the property, then paying thousands each month to never see a different thing out my window, ALL for 4x what it used to cost when I became old enough to dream of a house, and now at interest rates that my generation never knew were possible?! (yes I know boomers and some early x saw double digits, I know). NO FUCKING THANK YOU.

[charlessoukup]

We have discovered that we don't NEED all the buildings, stores, malls, meeting halls (we still need more nursing homes, too many old people, even WITH Covid, but the problem is:
All the buildings are Mis-used, or unused, , or not used efficiently enough, etc
IF we turn a BUNCH of the commercial living space into Living space, it will level out.
If it has a bathroom, it can be Lived In! It's just to get the process started. We did it with all the old one room school buildings we didn't need, now just to expand into old Burger King's & Walgreens.

[HedgeFundCIO]

Professional investor here. Bought a bunch of Florida RE in 2010-2013 after avoiding 2005-2009.

Do your own research is the only advice I can give you. An argument could be made that prices are fair if interest rates decline or are overvalued if they remain where they are now. It’s fluid, which is why nobody has a crystal ball. Personally, at this precise moment, I am not buying.

[Blueblackngold]

How quickly this went from the calls on open door channel to this

[Lazaven]

This guy has been talking about gloom and doom for so long that when something eventually does happen he'll look right. Kinda like a dead clock

[MatthewCleere]

Don't forget that one of the superstars of so-called stable investment portfolios, including millions of 401k's, are REIT's and big firms like Blackstone who are deeply invested in the commercial sector. The direct impact on the average citizen's retirement egg will be devastating.

[edgargonzalez]

My luck is so bad that if I buy a house today, the market will crash tomorrow 😅