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Calculating Historical Value at Risk (VaR)
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In this video, we're diving deep into the world of finance to demystify a crucial concept: Historical Value at Risk. Understanding this essential metric will help you make more informed investment decisions and manage risk effectively.
For illustration purposes, the video addresses the following question:
Question
Over the past 150 years, the worst annual returns on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange index have been:
-14.7%, -16.5%, -8.3%, -17.1%, -17.0%, -8.4%, -8.4%, -12.5%, -12.1%, -14.9%, -14.3%, -9.9%, -8.0%,
-16.5%, -17.0%, and -16.3%.
Based on 95% confidence (5% significance), what is the maximum loss that an investor can expect?
For illustration purposes, the video addresses the following question:
Question
Over the past 150 years, the worst annual returns on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange index have been:
-14.7%, -16.5%, -8.3%, -17.1%, -17.0%, -8.4%, -8.4%, -12.5%, -12.1%, -14.9%, -14.3%, -9.9%, -8.0%,
-16.5%, -17.0%, and -16.3%.
Based on 95% confidence (5% significance), what is the maximum loss that an investor can expect?