End Times Why Societies Rise and Falls Peter Turchin Interview

I talked to scientist historian Peter Turchin about his latest Book: End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. Peter developed a new scientific discipline called cliodynamics which rely on historical data to analyze and predict the rise and falls of large complex societies. Other than climatic change and geopolitical pressures, he identified two most important factors that lead to rupture of violence and upheaval: elite overproduction and popular immiseration. Perverse wealth pump that takes from poor and give to rich create huge economic inequalities that leads to elite infighting over over limited seats of power where power aspirants may rally popular discontent due to increasing impoverishment. We talked about how his model apply to the US society during Civil War, Gilded Age and New Deal and how it predicts turbulent political culture in 2020s

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[xiaoyanzhang]

Mao is not lying, he is talking about the people's democracy, not bourgeoisie democracy which serves the capitalists.

[peteryoung]

Why isn't Peter Turchin more well known?!! Need to buy his books!!

[bboystretch]

Thank you Carl (and Peter) for all the information you share

[tunalm]

A real fascinating podcast Carl, I truly enjoyed, and got an education a the same time, history is always amazing to learn.

[GigaSigma]

Thank you, Carl, for this extremely informative interview with Peter. I'm looking forward to reading his books.

[BAROMETERONE]

Societies rise and fall because... 1)The rise: their leaders start out doing things for the right reasons and harness their people in the right way for common goals. 2)The fall: then corruption, greed, and criminality creep in and people without proper values, integrity, vision and wisdom worm into power. The citizens are complacent and do nothing until it's too late.

[SyrianaAnalysis]

Great show! informative and entertaining

[stevenng]

Carl please invite Peter Turchin to talk about China.

[Kentalot]

Wow, what a great guest and extremely eye opening! Turns out the smackdown of jack ma was not only the right thing to do but it is potentially the beginning of how china can avoid disaster. Amazing! Now jack ma is less obnoxious and working towards the common goal again (at least in lip service).

[themanwithnoname]

Thank you so much for this show. It's really refreshing to see something that's well researched and based on facts. It's so rare in this day and age.
I wish more people see this.

[truthaboveall]

Americans r taught an Orwellian version of history where we alone defeated the Nazis w no mention of how the Soviets defeated the Nazis

We r in a bubble of careerism in media & academia- if u want a lucrative career u will root urself in America exceptionalism which gets u media time posts in Govt & other establishment perks

Or u can speak truth to power denying ur path to riches but to integrity & true freedom which always resides in reality imo

Our so called “experts” on China for example claim that China would collapse for decades now - people who have never even spent time in China people who don’t understand that history didn’t start & end w the collapse of the USSR but thousands of years ago where China’s culture had industrialised centuries before the Europeans & had the largest economy for 17 centuries- unlike the Roman Empire who the US is modelled after China didn’t need to invade pillage or conquer to build wealth cuz they had a REAL economy same as now

We r v angry that Xi didn’t turn on the poor to become a failed neoliberal democracy & we r even more horrified at how successful China is at soft power & at building a society that is flourishing from the bottom up

I am an American who has no issue w the changing world order b cuz I love the planet & humanity which cannot survive under the current global dictatorship of the US empire

[LoneRexLapis]

would be nice if this was 2 hours long.

[robertrichard]

What's wrong with the US is nothing new, just more inflamed, or pronounced.

[ossie]

Excellent discussion! I will get Peter's book. I am just finishing David Gress' book "From Plato To NATO" and found it very good. I will read Michael Hudson's latest book next "The Collapse of Antiquity". I have a Bachelor of Science degree in history. Thank you Carl

[xueueux]

I am just chinese descendants but not by citizen. I believe state must always be the rulers. It shouldn't be capitalists, money elites.

State power must have economical power more than the capitalists and have military power.

Capitalists are bunch of individuals, hence they will bend their knees when states tell them do so. Their money and power is given by the states. And states have rights to take that back when these capitalists try to corrupt the states, try to sleep with people inside.

If people said I am communists, so be it. I believe state must have power more than money elites/ individual capitalists..

That is why I don't sympathise when Jack Ma is asked to bend his knees and lower his head down. He is still rich man. I don't sympathise when he tried to use his influence to influence law and regulations thta will affect the mass..

Individuals will always prioritise their money and life with sacrifice of the many. States are bunch or individuals that tied together with bureaucracy, they can't easily put their individual agenda inside states. That is why all middlea low class people, you need to give power as strong as possible to your states.

[petervote]

Carl Zha, I have two books to recommend to you:

"The Evolution of Civilizations" and "Weapons Systems and Political Stability" by Carroll Quigley. They are in the same genre as Turchin's books. The latter book has a chapter on China. Both books can be found online.

[cherier]

Carl this was such a fascinating interview! Not to mention we're seeing what Peter is expressing in real time. Interesting that he views Tucker as a dangerous player. America's Untold Stories channel did a great video on Tucker's dad Richard Carlson. Surprisingly, the Carlson family is much darker than anyone can imagine. Thank you for such interesting material!

[popsatch]

Great interview perfect start to my day!

[markmahan]

It all boils down to the elite competition. Or in other words. The people who own the most fighting with each other. And since they have the most. And have made themselves indispensable to the common person. And they oen the sources of information or disinformation. They can use all of that to devide up the people and bring conflict and chaos. The answer to stopping this is to have people focused on learning as tue primary purpose for the search for Life. For we do not have life, but existence in a system we have abdicated to the owner class. Our existence should he to have time and will to learn and therefore aspiration to serve the greater whole and one's self at the same time. In a nutshell true Communism. Which is collective community to serve one's self and the community. The community is much more than the people but the natural world which sustains us..

[cogniktive]

Superb guest, Carl! This discussion answers some of my longstanding questions