Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin

What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? Is there any way to stop history repeating itself today? Peter Turchin has mined 10,000 years of data to find the answer.

Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it.

In this live event, he will present a ground-breaking account of how human societies work, explaining how, when the shifting balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, elite overproduction leads to state breakdown. It happened in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.

#PeterTurchin #ComplexityScience #SocietalCollapse #PoliticalTurbulence #SocialBreakdown #EliteOverproduction #StateBreakdown

[woof]

If the revolution happens this interviewer is one of the first to go.

[john]

So ironic to listen to the host talk about the problem while simultaneously being unaware he is an example if it.

[carlopoy]

I can't believe how many educated people like this interviewer still choose to believe that oligarchs mean it well and "don't conspire like a medieval king would do"...

Also: Who explains to this idiot (interviewer) that creating jobs is just a matter of political will and that the main reason why that political will is lacking it's because the oligarchs (who, as evidence suggests, own all of the Western governments) want to be the only ones who determine wages?

[eaglesrule]

This interviewer could easily be an advisor to our corrupt political elites. Why our society is in the sad state it is in. Honestly oblivious to their role in our societies decline. From Hope and Change which I bought into to five million people kicked out of their homes and executives keeping bonuses with taxpayer dollars. After covid worse than ever. CARES Act is latest example.

[wlim]

I'm watching this in July 2023 while France burns with looting. This feels so prescient.

[georgeflitzer]

It’s not just competition but needed cooperation is necessary

[georgea]

Interviewers political biases didn’t help this flesh out interesting topic. Real shame.

[akasetkya]

Reminds me of the saying”Give the devil a horse and he will ride straight to hell”

[j-dub.d-trey]

If one plans to upload a conversation to youtube, they should pay attention to audio production quality. Really does a disservice to the audience and the speakers

[john]

Hate that the interviewer dragged the level of discourse down so low with his own narrow political worldview.

[funnyguyinlondon]

The host keeps making value based arguments on crazy shit like net zero, just transition, policies on which are actually causing more emiseration to the poor contrary to narrative. The author smartly skirts away form affirming the implied value judgement on those nutty ideas from the host

[BobQuigley]

Here in Us Reagan and Friedman unleashed greed. It became law in some states and practice in the entire country that corporations have only one command. More money for stockholders. Simultaneously companies dropped pensions. 70 million boomers were chained to this model. Today their retirements are nearly 100% dependent on corporate dividends, splits etc. This group, my group, are following Mr Turchin's iron law! We want more more more. More houses vacations clothes jewelry and on and on. Our stocks can never drop. We invest more in risky businesses. Insider trading is now normalized. We well off rarely if ever have tax audits. All as we spew 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases pollution into our shared atmosphere while doing deep damage to the biosphere which is the source of all life.

[SuspendedLogic]

His thesis probably won’t get much elite media coverage.

[tjunglec]

The early 70s is when we lost real money. Its not a coincidence. Fiat money puts the cantilon effect on steroids.

[peacesound]

A sober analysis, so much a sober perspective "backed by fact" and running parallel to intuition; it gives me shivers...

[shamster]

The recipeients of the wealth pumps response to the threat of pitch forks has been embracing as a facade so called woke capitalism (ESG), e.g. in western countries aggresive support of lgbtqia (whilst the same corporates completely ignoring in eastern cultures).

[Liam-B]

For me, this kind of thought plugs right in with Eric Hoffer's, "The True Believer". That said, I am also pleasantly surprised yet refreshed at the poignancy of the questions, and with the simple yet precise language used to really illustrate the ideas Turchin shares. I always appreciate well thought out communication with a sincere yet empirical human being, especially if said human being is a bona fide expert.

[judytaquino]

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Remember the Stanford Prison Experiment 1971?

[dlschweppe]

Oh joy. At the interviewer's blatant misinformation regarding Jan 6 2021, I stopped watching.

[neovxr]

We are conflating definitions of elites.
1. those who contribute on high levels, because they are educated, knowledgeable, inspiring, and have talent of leadership. Practically a benign meritocracy.
2. those who have money and power, and their power is a result of networking and meddling with human communication, for instance control over media by ownership structures and advertising schemes.