The Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Turkey's Balancing Act

Galip Dalay, CATS Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Liana Fix, Resident Fellow, GMF

Jonathan D. Katz, Senior Fellow and Director, Democracy Initiatives, GMF

Maryna Vorotnyuk, Associate Fellow, RUSI (PDN ’19)

Kadri Tastan, Senior Fellow, GMF

By virtue of history and geography, but also economic, security, and defense interests, Turkey has high stakes in the Ukrainian-Russian relationship and has walked a fine line to pursue cordial relations with both countries. It has invested in Ukraine’s defense industry, and has supported its territorial integrity. At the same time, Turkey has pursued a contradictory policy toward Russian expansion. On the one hand, Turkey refused to lift restrictions on the size and number of US warships allowed to enter the Black Sea during Russia’s intervention in Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions and refused to implement US-EU sanctions on Russia in response to Crimea. On the other hand, it backed NATO programs to train and equip Georgian armed forces and did not recognize the annexation of Crimea to be legal. An escalation of the Ukrainian crisis could put Turkey in a difficult position of having to choose between Russia and Ukraine, as well as come under pressure to align itself with the sanctions policy of its NATO allies.