Why California's BIG EARTHQUAKE Hasn't Hit Yet

Scientists have been predicting that California was going to get slammed by a huge earthquake every year for the last few decades... but that earthquake has yet to actually materialize. While the state has been home to some notable earthquakes such as the 1994 Northridge earthquake and 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, neither lived up to the hype that people have come to expect. So where is California mega earthquake and why hasn't it hit yet?

In this video we'll cover the geography of earthquakes at large and where they hit most frequently, the history of earthquakes in the United States, and why, specifically, California's "big one" might have been delayed or even canceled entirely.

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Video editing support provided by Kat Olsen

[DeniseDDS]

Strangely, you did not mention that LA has had 15 earthquakes in the 4.0 range so far this year. Three of them have woken me up in the last 2 weeks.
This is the highest number of quakes we have had in recorded history in this period of time.

[Argelius]

"Soon" or "overdue" in geologic time is much different than human time.

[Curt_Randall]

Even if it happens 100 years from now, that is still just around the corner, geologically speaking.

[rogaineablar]

Cascadia scares me WAY more than San Andreas. FEMA director said everything west of I-5 will be toast.

[Oatmeal_]

There's no real good answer to this except there just hasn't been one yet.

[brenchtoast]

I remember in a geography of CA class I took in 2010 that the "big one" could happen at any time on a geologic time scale. Meaning, it can happen any time in the next few hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years.

[Sacto]

What really worries me is that the Los Angeles Basin has a bunch of earthquake faults that are much shallower to ground level than the San Andreas Fault. These shallower faults means even a Magnitude 7.5 quake could cause a huge amount of destruction and casualties on their own.

[rad]

Here in New Zealand, we're also waiting the "The Big One" to send our capital city of Wellington back underwater.

In 2011 a big one hit... and destroyed Christchurch, a city previously thought of reasonably safe.

This would be the equivalent of expecting a big quake to hit Los Angeles, only to have Las Vegas get destroyed instead.

[snoozeflu]

I'm 50. When I was in elementary school, there were urban legends of "the big one" where California was going to break off and fall into the ocean, just like at the beginning of this video. We used to do "earthquake drills" to prepare for it. So I can say with confidence that this talk of "the big one" has been going on for at least 40 years.

[jimmydee]

Human Time vs. Geologic Time. The southern San Andreas can have intervals of 100 years to 400 years between events. Your Grandchildren may miss the next one. Besides - the splinter faults closer to populated areas likely pose a bigger danger

[petuniasevan]

I grew up in Southern California and experienced the February 1971 Sylmar (San Fernando) earthquake at age 7. It hit right at 6:00 AM PST, and was of magnitude 6.6.
I lived about 33 miles from the epicenter so it wasn't bad where I was. It was severe enough to kill 65 people in the San Fernando Valley area, most of them in the Olive View and VA hospitals.
We were VERY lucky that it happened at 6 AM and not an hour or two later, when the freeways would have been clogged with cars. Overpasses collapsed at the junction of the 5 and 210 freeways.
It would have been hundreds dead, if not more.

[EarthquakeSim]

Can’t wait to watch this video! I’m happy you’re covering this topic :)

[burkestorti]

Yea, my grand father (age 16), his siblings & parents, survived the "BIG ONE". they were living in San Francisco in 1906.

[david.e.miller]

I was in the Primm Valley Casino (on the Nevada-California border) when the Hector Mine earthquake struck on October 16, 1999. The giant chandeliers swayed back and forth, the floor rumbled, and dust fell from a trembling ceiling. Some people fled the casino, but no damage resulted from the magnitude 7.1 quake. Since that time, I've felt a few gentle rollers here in Las Vegas. But they didn't originate from the fault lines located right here in the city.

[DebLeeMn]

I remember my father talking about it in the 70's!

[CALIRYD]

I live in Santa Monica California (Los Angeles County) used to live in San Francisco. My house is new and built to current earthquake codes for California and the office I work in has been retrofitted to current California earthquake codes. I have a storm shelter with a month’s worth of food and supplies in the case of an actual earthquake emergency.

I forgot to add the biggest earthquake I was in: Loma Prieta in San Francisco October 17th 1989. I was at the A’s-Giants World Series game! 15 seconds of pure adrenaline and fear! I’m glad I wasn’t on the Bay Bridge and especially not on the Cypress Expressway!

[scottclapson]

Watching from Los Angeles we have had a bunch of smaller 4-5 point quakes recently too. A little more than what feels normal at least to someone who’s lived here for decades. That could be part of it as the smaller quakes could be releasing some of that potential energy. Malibu, South Pasadena and other areas have been hit with quakes that size recently and felt them all in the downtown area very strongly.

[TheGhostGuitars]

I think the West Coast oughter more worry about the Cascadia than the San Andreas. Cascadia will be the more disastrous that'd make the worst the San Andreas can do look minor in comparison.

[PoeCompany]

10:28 if you want to skip to the question

[discoverglobeliving]

I remember visiting California in 2019 during the Ridgecrest earthquakes—felt a small tremor but nothing like the 'Big One' everyone talks about. It's surprising how it hasn't happened yet, despite all the predictions!