How does the Taiwan Public View the U.S. and China?

Join the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies for a discussion of public perceptions of U.S. credibility in Taiwan, and China’s growing threats to peace and stability. The discussion is informed by the findings of a public opinion survey conducted by Academia Sinica from May 23 to May 28, 2024, amid China's latest military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait.

The panel will feature James Lee, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, Hsin-Hsin Pan, Associate Professor, Sociology, Soochow University, Wen-Chin Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, and Chien-Huei Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica. Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette will moderate the discussion.

This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.

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[simonsu]

How much has NATO spent on Ukraine fighting Russia? And how is the war going? Do you urge Taiwan to be the next Ukraine?

[fatdoi]

how come no one asked how does mainland public view u.s and taiwan? so only taiwan has the say on chinese domestic issue?

[bearpolo]

To be honest, how Taiwanese think is kinda irrelevant in the bigger picture. Taiwan is being used by US as a card in the strategic competition with mainland China. The fate of Taiwan will be decided by the result of this contest.

[tomchen]

First chain of islands for whom? Disinformation fed to Taiwan people by the US led axis has been appalling.

[lv]

Most important is how the majority mainlanders view the Taiwanese & the government of the day administrating the island. If to them unification by force is inevitable, then the Taiwanese's views are no longer important. Taiwanese can either stay or go. The mainlanders just want to ensure the island won't be separated from China.

[JA-pnji]

Taiwan seeks credibility from popular opinion through opinion polls, but these are Think Tank-driven and flawed in the manner quoted by this panel. The US in turn, seeks to validate its geopolitical position - with regards to Taiwan, by placing undue attention on ‘flawed’ opinion polls conducted by independence-supporting elements. Turning Taiwan into a pawn for its hegemonic posturing.
The true reflection of popular opinion is not the media or think tank-driven polls, but parliamentary representation. This offers a contrary view, with One-China political parties, the Kuomintang and TPP represented by 60 seats and the Independence-seeking DPP by 52 seats.

China's credibility is derived from history, international treaties, and customary sovereign practice. On the latter, Apex courts in Canada, France, UK, and Spain share the same ruling that Quebec, Corsica, Scotland, and Catalonia respectively, cannot seek to legitimise (even if sanctioned by a regional parliament) their sovereign independence through the process of popular regional referenda or UDI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence), without the sanction of their existing sovereign as mandated in their respective constitutions.

The Constitution of Taiwan is clear, ‘Taiwan is a part of China’. Even a Taiwanese constitutional revocation cannot legitimise independence or the process of seeking independence without the sanction of the declared constitutional sovereign. Even in Taiwan’s current constitution, the ultimate sovereign is China.

Where Taiwan's argument has plausibility is that it questions the legitimacy of the mainland PRC government, however, contemporary international recognition makes the PRC the de facto and legitimate successor to the ROC.

There are two points in time that mark the crystallisation of successorship from ROC to PRC. The first was internal and marked in 1949 when the PRC achieved sovereignty over mainland China, the second was external when the PRC achieved majority recognition among nation-states through UN admittance in 1971.

Another flawed argument is that the PRC has never ruled Taiwan, as equally the ROC - as legitimised by its sovereignty over mainland China and under which guise it participated as treaty signatory to several international treaties has also never ruled Taiwan.

Taiwan did not officially become a part of China until the Japanese handover in 1952 to fulfil the terms of its WW2 surrender. At that time, the ROC no longer held 'internal' sovereignty over China in a manner that would legitimise a 'Japan sovereign to China sovereign' transfer of territory as mandated in the Japanese surrender; and its 'external' sovereignty expired in 1971, with the withdrawal of UN recognition.

[jameschu]

The majority of Hawaiians do not want to be under the USA, in fact, Hawaiians want total independence.

[George-vtxs]

What do Taiwanese think how Afghans would answer on the question of US credibility? And on how the Ukrainians would answer after Trump returns to the White House? If China and Taiwan are different countries, why are these participants from Academia SINICA and not Academia Taiwan or Formosa? Isn’t it a bit pretentious?

[TheEmiljoergensen]

The intro is strong:
"Missing from a lot of these discussions is what the people on Taiwan actually think"

Missing from a lot of foreign policy analysis, I appreciate the recognition of how the agency of the people on taiwan (on the ground generally) is a critical component of understanding possible developments/ conflict dynamics.

[thothfund]

Taiwan needs to increase defense spending.

[juansantiago]

If the people only mattered... good luck to you people....

[jarrettbobbett]

Why is Tawain not spending 5 -10% of GDP on defense?

[jameschu]

Why is America not talking or encouraging peaceful reunification? Yet you, America seeks provocation and division between China and Taiwan, keeps sending offensive weapons to Taiwan.

[chiwong]

It must be a joke to talk about the credibility of US Administration. If anyone has some sense of logic, through what US did on Vietnam, Afghanistan, Middle East, and their behaviour in the recent drama in Philippine-China conflict, this topic is a non-starter. This credibility survey or study is just an insult to majority of Taiwan citizens. Unfortunately, this island never short of these type of awkward people who like to sell their own people and country.

[aghassimkrtchyan]

Such a waste of resources to ask a question on “credibility” :) in case of the US, it’s a meaningless question since the US maintains strategic ambiguity, so the question sounds like do you believe that US will remain ambiguous :) … in case of China, if Taiwanese perceive China as an enemy what is the point of asking a question about your enemy’s credibility ? If Taiwanese don’t believe in China’s commitment to peaceful reunification, do they also not believe in China’s threat of response if they declare independence ? Inconsistent and meaningless …. better to ask which country you like more, or more specifically, do you believe US will go to war with China over Taiwan, or do you believe China will respond militarily if Taiwan declares independence