Putin Miscalculated on Ukraine | Misled By Post-Cold War Worldview, Says Ivan Krastev | GZERO World

Putin miscalculated in Ukraine — badly.

For political scientist Ivan Krastev, Vladimir Putin miscalculated in Ukraine — but in a much deeper way than how the invasion is playing out so far.

Why? Krastev offers three explanations in an interview with Ian Bremmer.

First, Putin never accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed because communism did.

Second, he thought the West is in such decline that he'd get away with it.

Third, Putin wants to fix all Russia's problems in his lifetime.

So, how does the Russian leader feel about the war so far? Krastev believes he's definitely not happy with what's going on on the ground, but views himself as fighting a longer and more consequential battle with the West.

#GZEROWorld #IvanKrastev #Putin

[RobBCactive]

This guest makes a lot of sense, the terrible mistake was made long before when the Russian governing classes monetised their connections and government with asset sell offs.
It made authoritarianism necessary to resist the recovery of oligarch assets and this slide into insecurity and zero sum competition.
A resource rich democratic Russia would have had a secure place between Europe and Asia.

[ramameir]

"He thinks that he is in the beginning of the war, not the end of it "...That is a scary thing....

[lexas]

Well, he may think he is at the beginning of the war, but his army doesn't.

[controlfreak]

Vlad the Vanquished. Soon to be Vlad the Vanished. Vlad's last words - "Is that Makarov for me?"

[Timzart]

Krastev brought up some sensible points, a few which are not often heard, like that Putin thought the US would be in too much disarray for Biden to do sanctions and account freezing. However, to me, Putin's inability to see the long-range effect this invasion will have on him and Russia is similar to the inability in the US for some people to think electing Trump would not have any long-range effects on democracy, or even the effects on the world, the image of the US after it elected an ignorant, inexperienced fool like Trump for President.

In 2016, who could have predicted that Trump would not only stick by his claims of an election victory in 2024, even after defeat in over 50 court proceedings, but that most of his party would stick with this big lie also, with Trump and many of his followers wanting the election overturned in a coup, and some still wanting a civil war. Putin probably thinks the end of democracy in the US is right around the corner, and whether it is DeSantis or Trump who takes office, he'll have an ally in the US then. Putin has studied Trump closely and he knows how fragile and weak democracy is for a fool like Trump to do the damage he has done in the US, and is still doing. And when Putin sees the attention given fanatics like Greene or Gaetz, he can see the US falling apart and clinging to democracy by a thread.

Another good point Krastev mentions is the immense power Putin feels from over 20 years of structuring the government in Russia to fit his vision, and that even when cut off by sanctions or certain hardships, most Russians will follow Putin, because they have been confused and made passive by the constant barrage of propaganda on state TV since 2014.

[UTegerton]

For sure Putin miscalculated. But so did Western leaders, in underestimating the strength of feeling of Putin and (to some extent) of Russian people. And the consequences will affect us all.

[Dirk]

So interesting to get Ivan’s perspective, he is obviously well informed.
World leaders can think very highly of themselves because they have so much power but every world leader is a limited human being and just a mere mortal. With great power comes greater responsibility.

[Ivan.Ivanov]

he would never let the land he took, and this is A LOT. About the sanctions, he could bribe all of central asia to help him contraband the missing products

[allanmarks]

Every day videos appear on YT, about some country sending some weapons to Ukraine.
One of the questions being debated today, is - if a country like England, Germany, or Finland sends weapons to Ukraine, in order for Ukraine to fight Russia - is that the same as England, Germany or Finland attacking Russia. Putin seems to think yes, but historically the answer seems to have been no.
Is there any chance that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
We have no idea what is the state of Putin's health, what drugs he is taking, and what such drugs are doing to his mind. A number of intelligent people believe Putin is now in an impossible situation. I suspect nobody really knows what will happen to Putin's mind when it is put in an impossible situation and while it is under the influence of who knows what drugs.

[andilemxotwa]

Thank you for organizing this Ian - Ivan analysis is fascinating and refreshing. I think some of the things he is pointing out might work in Putin's favour. If the domestic climate in a lot of key western countries takes a turn for the worse - I wonder how long will people tolerate the billions of aid being funnelled to Ukraine. And if as many experts are predicting - that this war might drag on for years - how long do we think the west will stay motivated to help Ukraine fight Russia. Once that fatigue in solidarity sets in - and the war is still ongoing - Russia might indeed win the war (obviously at a great cost to itself ). A win here will entail a permanently occupied Ukraine without any prospect of joining the EU - and a Ukraine at the mercy of Russian whims...Which is exactly what Russia want in the first place.

[valtsanev]

Absolutely agree. Putin miscalculated mainly driven by poor intelligence in my view.

[ahmedmonir]

Certainly Jesus, son of Mary (the servant and messenger of Allah ), peace be upon both of them, will descend in Syria - Al-Manara, on two angel wings, wearing two dresses, his face dripping with water as if he was coming out of a shower, his breath reaching the tip of his fingers at the length of his arm, killing everyone who entered his breath except  Muslims, he breaks the cross and kills the pig and accepts only the religion of Islam, he prays with the Muslims in the Al-Aqsa Mosque, then he kills the Antichrist, then he and those with him hide on Mount Al-Tur for fear of Gog and Magog, then he prays to Allah to kill them, so they all die because of a flying worm that enters  in their noses, then he would rule the earth for 40 years in which love, justice and much prosperity would prevail, then he would die and be
buried in Muslim cemeteries.

[4:171]
O People of the Scripture! Do not exaggerate in your religion nor utter aught concerning Allah save the truth. The Messiah, Jesus son of Mary, was only a messenger of Allah, and His word which He conveyed unto Mary, and a spirit from Him. So believe in Allah and His messengers, and say not "Three" - Cease! (it is) better for you! - Allah is only One God. Far is it removed from His Transcendent Majesty that He should have a son. His is all that is in the heavens and all that is in the earth. And Allah is sufficient as Defender.

[4:172]
The Messiah will never scorn to be a slave unto Allah, nor will the favoured angels. Whoso scorneth His service and is proud, all such will He assemble unto Him;

[4:173]
Then, as for those who believed and did good works, unto them will He pay their wages in full, adding unto them of His bounty; and as for those who were scornful and proud, them will He punish with a painful doom. And they will not find for them, against Allah, any protecting friend or helper.

[4:174]
O mankind! Now hath a proof from your Lord come unto you, and We have sent down unto you a clear light;

[4:175]
As for those who believe in Allah, and hold fast unto Him, them He will cause to enter into His mercy and grace, and will guide them unto Him by a straight road.
19:81]
And they have chosen (other) gods beside Allah that they may be a power for them.

[19:82]
Nay, but they will deny their worship of them, and become opponents unto them.

[19:83]
Seest thou not that We have set the devils on the disbelievers to confound them with confusion ?

[19:84]
So make no haste against them (O Muhammad). We do but number unto them a sum (of days).

[19:85]
On the day when We shall gather the righteous unto the Beneficent, a goodly company.

[19:86]
And drive the guilty unto hell, a weary herd,

[19:87]
They will have no power of intercession, save him who hath made a covenant with his Lord.

[19:88]
And they say: The Beneficent hath taken unto Himself a son.

[19:89]
Assuredly ye utter a disastrous thing

[19:90]
Whereby almost the heavens are torn, and the earth is split asunder and the mountains fall in ruins,

[19:91]
That ye ascribe unto the Beneficent a son,

[19:92]
When it is not meet for (the Majesty of) the Beneficent that He should choose a son.

[19:93]
There is none in the heavens and the earth but cometh unto the Beneficent as a slave.

[19:94]
Verily He knoweth them and numbereth them with (right) numbering.

[19:95]
And each one of them will come unto Him on the Day of Resurrection, alone.

[19:96]
Lo! those who believe and do good works, the Beneficent will appoint for them love.

[19:97]
And We make (this Scripture) easy in thy tongue, (O Muhammad) only that thou mayst bear good tidings therewith unto those who ward off (evil), and warn therewith the froward folk.

[19:98]
And how many a generation before them have We destroyed! Canst thou (Muhammad) see a single man of them, or hear from them the slightest sound ?

39:4]
If Allah had willed to choose a son, He could have chosen what He would of that which He hath created. Be He Glorified! He is Allah, the One, the Absolute.

[39:5]
He hath created the heavens and the earth with truth. He maketh night to succeed day, and He maketh day to succeed night, and He constraineth the sun and the moon to give service, each running on for an appointed term. Is not He the Mighty, the Forgiver ?

[39:6]
He created you from one being, then from that (being) He made its mate; and He hath provided for you of cattle eight kinds. He created you in the wombs of your mothers, creation after creation, in a threefold gloom. Such is Allah, your Lord. His is the Sovereignty. There is no God save Him. How then are ye turned away ?

[39:7]
If ye are thankless, yet Allah is Independent of you, though He is not pleased with thanklessness for His bondmen; and if ye are thankful He is pleased therewith for you. No laden soul will bear another’s load. Then unto your Lord is your return; and He will tell you what ye used to do. Lo! He knoweth what is in the breasts (of men).
.How many children would you like to have? Personally, I would love to have 10 children
Boys and girls but I only have 5.
😂😂

[imnotanalien]

Interesting commentary… a point no one says much about is this war is draining the US economy…. that’s probably in the calculation of Russia and China.. and it’s to the benefit of EU… they are benefiting also…. NATO gets the funding that they desperately needed and Biden pledged infrastructure spending (he said a gift) to Europe.
And the UN always gets a percentage of war money…. So it may be bad for Russia… but other countries are benefiting…. (not the US taxpayers of course).

[kshen]

Russian wrong doing is caused by the miscalculation from the NATO, especially America. Between the pirate countries, hard to tell which one came first, chicken or egg?