The AI Hype is OVER! Have LLMs Peaked?

The AI Bubble Has BURST! OpenAI Hits the Brakes....

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[davidprice]

Hype is not over, I am still shockingly shocked!

[zalzalahbuttsaab]

TLDR:

Here is a summary of the key points from the video:

The speaker disagrees with the notion that AI hype is wearing off or plateauing. He argues that while current AI models like GPT-4 are impressive, the leaders at companies like OpenAI have stated that much more advanced AI systems are coming soon that will make GPT-4 seem "dumb" in comparison.

He cites several reasons why AI capabilities are likely to continue rapidly advancing:

1. Recent breakthroughs like OpenAI's SORA video generation model show AI is still making major leaps.

2. Compute power and specialized AI hardware like Nvidia's new chips are increasing exponentially to enable training larger models.

3. The race between major tech companies to develop advanced AI is heating up, driving rapid progress.

4. OpenAI and others are making undisclosed internal breakthroughs that are years ahead of their public releases.

5. New architectures incorporating advanced reasoning and multi-modal capabilities are still emerging.

The speaker argues the perceived slowdown is an illusion caused by companies just trying to catch up to and slightly surpass GPT-4 before OpenAI's next major model release. But internally, the rate of AI progress is accelerating rapidly behind the scenes.

[cortaisfashion]

2:17 - A human cough edited into the video to trick us. Nice try, robot. Not today

[FarhaanLevy]

He's not saying that its dumb, he's just basically saying that GPT-4 will be bottom of the list in terms of capabilities compared to future models from that point onwards.

[artscollab]

This channel needs to go deeper than commenting on non-technical rumors.

[zoranProCode]

You are really really really repeating yourself

[jdub]

We are just at the tip of the iceberg. It took several years to get to where we are now. It will take a few more to get to AGI then ASI. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

[coreywiley]

I envision AI robots being programmed to restore, refurbish, rehabilitate, remediate, renovate, and repair all old and blighted buildings throughout the entire U.S.A. A fleet of millions of AI construction bots, built for the specific purpose of saving all the old buildings and returning them to livable and pristine condition, would save their architectural legacy and make them usable and habitable by the people

[torarinvik]

LLMs are stagnating in the sense that you need much more data and compute to reach the same amount of performance increase on benchmarks. Personally, I was expecting compounding/exponential gains in model performance. This turns out to not be the case, as it is more along the lines of linear growth. LLAMA-2 was trained on 2 trillion tokens, LLAMA-3 on 15 trillion. That's 7.5 times more data, LLAMA-3 certainly isn't 7.5 times smarter. However, most likely LLMs eventually will be overshadowed by another breakthrough, creating a new hype cycle. Perhaps some self-play reinforcement learning like in AlphaGo.

[joekavalauskas]

Reminds me of self driving cars. Some great tech has gotten us 90% there but the last 10% is exponentially harder.

[sarahdrawz]

I don’t know…I used to think it was impossible for an ai to be creative. Then it made art, and I said “well…it’ll NEVER be able to make music right? ….nope. AI generated music is now capable of being indistinguishable from human music. So….never say never ig

[TheNewOriginals]

Yep, we're at 1 megapixel camera level right now, lots more to come.

[AI_Superintelligence]

do yourself a favour... skip the first 5 minutes
edit: actually the first 20 min

[grognardgaming]

Yeah, I'm sick of Altman telling us what GPT-5 will be. Put up or shut up already. They still want the attention and headlines but aren't earning them at this point.

[jamiecoxe]

I guess we will end up building power plants and these data centers together on the same property.

[calvingrondahl]

Hype draws in investors like any gold rush in history, at some point the excitement dies down because humans have a short attention span.

[OscarTheStrategist]

The performance of tiny models like Phi3 and LLama 3-8B should tell you all you need to know about where we are. These LLMs can get MUCH better.

We will probably have slightly higher than GPT 4 level LLM that fits and runs well in an iPhone very soon… this year probably

[perer]

Complete nonsense to talk about "peaking" when we've only experienced the first "real generation" of foundation models. If GPT-6 doesn't significantly improve on GPT-5 then we can start talking about the technology peaking.

The biggest problem of AI is the database. If it is bad, the results are bad.

[sirbughunter]

Bro, Zachary literally works at Google AI. So of course he will know it as best as you can. When he said "the hype is wearing off" he didn't mean that AI has peaked. He never wrote that anywhere. He said it, because people are starting to get comfortable with AI being everywhere around them. It's not that AI won't improve amazingly anymore. It's just that people started to notice its current shortcomings and therefore aren't as hyped anymore as they should be. They don't understand AGI's potential. They never did.