Delta as PROBABILITY in Options Trading EXPLAINED!

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#trading #stockmarket #optionstrading

▬ ABOUT ERIK ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
My name is Erik, I'm a Marine veteran, options trader, real estate and angel investor. From 2007, I spent over 30,000 hours honing my skillset and became a first generation millionaire before 30. I'm is passionate about self-development, life experiences, human performance, and helping others grow. I launched the esInvests YouTube channel and the Outlier community to share his experience and empower others to proactively craft their futures.

DISCLAIMER:
The content presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. esInvests, its affiliates, and employees are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information presented in these videos. All investment and trading activities involve risk, and viewers should carefully consider their financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, or other information contained in these videos are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. esInvests does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information presented in these videos and is not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of or reliance on this information. Viewers are encouraged to seek professional financial advice from a licensed investment advisor before making any investment decisions.

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[LiquidityThieves]

Dude I swear I'm so thankful for your Content. I've been following you for years now. Found you in reddit years back and your info/channel is a hidden gem😊

[JeffJonesJr]

Great video, comprehensive deep dive, that's accessible to understand. Thank you for creating

[claytongidney]

I joined the Discord, but cant verify: The verification service has been disabled. Please contact your server owner.

[TheMattj]

Possibly dumb question here, but if you are trading a neutral strategy where each side has a delta of 0.12 does your total probability of finishing in the money increase to a 0.24 delta? For instance a long iron condor spread

[Eqnotalent]

Even 0dte is always wrong. 10 delta gets hit literally 25% of the time. Because expected move and vix is so low. Spx move way more than 20 per day than 25% of the time

[AVWAP]

So keep long contracts at about 90days? Think I saw something from tastytrade backtest stating 90days was optimal but I could be wrong.

[gtcstorm]

Without any charting or struggle, one should be able to buy/sell and es contract, use zero DTE probability of touch. For example, I go long and only aim to hit the 80 pct POT for that day, and maybe stop out if that goes under 60 pct. Could this work if you stuck to it religiously ? Obviously, 80 pct chance i get my target mean 20 percent of time I do not, the key is to limit the loss side. The hard part is knowing when to cut losses.

[johnmoser]

Dude ... now I become a millionaire ... <sarcasm off>

[zamalek]

Literally too much, this may seem ok to you at your maths comfort zone but many find this overwhelming.Thats why theres so little engagement on this one. I think its better if you explain each part first.Seeing it all up there at once is overwhelming. Or perhaps focus more of key ones that matter. Not all of this relevant to us as we dont have high level maths.

[Drake]

what's up dude. im currently getting my M/S in finance and im a derivatives trader at TD Ameritrade. I have no life as well and for the most part understand the excel commands/formulas you used for your calculations. is there any way you can reach out to me and we can chat. I have some questions on how you built your model. Hope you see this!