How to Create a 10 Delta Iron Condor for an 80% Probability of Success!

Do you want to have 80% probability of success in trading? 🤔 Check this out! Learn how to create a 10 Delta Iron Condor and become a successful trader!

#stockmarket #ironcondors #probability #deltaironcondors

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Hey, I’m Sasha, and I help people learn to trade options, create a consistent monthly income, and build your retirement account even if they have never traded before, are terrible at picking stocks, or have failed for many years! My goal is to help you learn and navigate the markets to profit consistently.

🛑 *DISCLAIMER*
All of the stocks mentioned in this video and any other videos we have are opinions and not investment, financial, or legal advice. These videos are for general education, information, and entertainment. Do your due diligence and consult with a registered financial advisor before taking any position since everyone has a different risk tolerance.

[abhayrohit]

the loss when that one day range breaks is big so even if the range is broken once in a month, whole month profit gone

[gwentchamp]

The problem I have with high probability iron condors or even credit spreads is the amount of risk compared to the reward. If your risk/reward ratio is like 5/1 or higher, . is it worth it even at 80% probability of winning ?

[mikedeee]

Great idea on the 10 delta, spasibo balshoi Sasha! Also curious how it would look on TSLA, if you would please do a video or a quick response here, thanks 😊

[jjseandxcefree]

thumbs up even if it was beyond my understanding.

[Giggidygiggidy]

Question why were you looking at July exp in May instead of maybe weeklies or even 0 DTE??

[carlpetitt]

Hi Sasha, thanks for the video. In this example, you are setting up a 10 delta on each tail, so are you saying this gives us (in theory) an 80% chance that the price of the underlying will be within that 80% range at expiration? If not, then what does the 80% probability actually represent? Part of my confusion is that in one of TD Ameritrade's own TOS videos, they show how to use the analyze tab, where they set the price slices to be break even at expiration. When they did this, the analyze window shows 3 probabilities, one is the probability that the price will be below our lower breakeven level at expiration, one that shows the probability that the price will be between our break-evens at expiration, and the third showing the prob that the price will be above our upper breakeven at expiration, So then when I go to setup a "10 delta" iron condor and analyze the trade in this manner, I would have though that these 3 probabilities would be (roughly) 10%, 80%, and 10% respectively, But they aren't at all, not even close. The probability of the price being within our breakevens at expiration is much lower, maybe around 55% or something. So I'm confused. There are apparently 2 sets of probabilities we are shown in TOS -- 1 set is represented by the Deltas corresponding to the strikes we chose, and the 2nd set is what the analyze tab shows when the price slices are set to "breakeven" at expiration. Can you shed any light on this? major source of confusion! Thanks

[michaelabate]

Not a fan of putting in IC’s this way. Ive had spreads analyzed where i had around the same credits for my call side vert and put side vert . I placed the order as an IC and it gave me about double the credit for my put side than i had anticipated and next to nothing in credit for my call side....

[natemann]

Can you make a video on 1-3DTE SPY Iron Condors? I have been doing them for awhile and don’t see much downside. I typically sell at a 15 delta and buy at a 5 delta (around these numbers). It has provided a decent weekly income for me, but nothing is perfect. What are the downsides to this strategy?

[theindivisible]

What's the typical expiration date you look at to enter this trade? 2 weeks? 4 + weeks? I've been trading spy and made well doing vertical spreads.. however, one or two bad days, I lost half of my portfolio value. Going to explore doing iron condors

[nfperrini]

what you dont really mention is you trade high yield for POP... so. yeah.

[thepixalking]

You had 666 likes, so I felt it was my duty to bump that to 667.
We don't need any hexes around here my friend.

[JohnDoe-ivyu]

Why not right click on your first Put and choose Iron Condor from the Options? Why manually construct it from the ground up?

[kamran]

Is it a concern that you didn't collect enough premium on the trade? Based on my knowledge we should receive at least 1/3 width of the strikes. In this case was 10 point wide which equals $3.33 ($333) per contract.. Love your channel!

[robdcbtcinvestanduse]

Real concern as price approaches sold options. Risk os assignment on both sides and by managing the winning side we’ve locked in less profit possibility.
Any “sold option” requires holding for profit and this has 2 sold verticals.
If volatility is low buying a Double calendar is a better strategy as profit can be realized earlier and less risk ratio with equivalent profit and less max loss ratio

[PalwankarRavi]

Excellent. Request to create adjustment strategy. Thx

[sagig]

Hi Sasha, super cool video! One question tho: What is the difference between Delta and Prob.ITM (probability in-the-money)? In this video they're quite different. I always thought that Delta itself means the probability to be ITM, so how come they're so different? Thanks.

[marctingey]

Understanding that the price at expiration can ONLY be in one place wouldn't this trade actually still be a 90% probability trade. If both verticals of the iron condor are each separately 90% ITM probability, and there is no way that the price can be on both sides at the same time then the percentage of probability is still the same, although the loss of money becomes greater if the trade ends up out of the money. What am I missing? Also, do you have any videos on any of the advanced options strategies like skip strike butterflies, ratio vertical spreads. I would love to see a video on a back ratio vertical spread with puts on a lower priced stock where you can control your loss to the downside by adjusting the ratio based on if the stock ends up going to 0. Your videos are great. I have traded for years, but have not had time to do any in the past couple years. I am getting back into it and your videos are helpful, thanks for your insight.

[jjseandxcefree]

hi... I was looking at a condor of stock XXXX Oct 30 (sell the 400p x1 and buy the 300p x1, then sell the 500 cx2 and buy the 550c x2)
x2) for about $34 credit. Now what happens if XXXX slips to 380 or 520 before oct 30 - do one of my legs get exercised...and if so what do i do to manage the trade? thanks

[donnelljunior]

Crazy question: what happens if I invert the calls that I sell? Meaning if I sold both options in the money while still buying out of the money options???

[ketzakoalt]

same error everywhere, you can't be wrong on each side