Ep 67 Osterholm Update COVID-19: You Can’t Run Out the Game Clock

In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss the state of the pandemic in the US and abroad, evolving data on vaccines and their effectiveness, and schools in the age of Delta.

[dudetwitter]

I congratulate O for his persistence on school warnings. We can see rampant infections in Southern schools, tens of thousands of children infected. 19% of all new infections in Florida is in the age group 5-14.

[carolmahoney]

Mr. Osterhoim is a life raft in a sea of uncertainly. Thanks for guiding us thru this terrible time with your science, truth and hard facts. That's exactly what we need right now.

[efjproductions]

What a wonderful podcast! This is the only source of covid information that is willing to grapple with all issues that confuse and vex us in real time. Please continue with your form of excellence! We need you and more like you.

[george]

Dr Osterholm thanks again for the tough conversation. Many of us out here in the dark appreciate you and your good works.

[Starcraftghost]

Thank you Dr. Osterholm for a very empathic acknowledgement.

[Caracalla]

Thank you all at CIDRAP for the helpful content yall put out!

[anthonygreen]

Thank You! Dr. Osterholm for consistently and honestly keeping us Informed.

[highrx]

It’s not over. The virus is mutating as we speak. We don’t know what the next mutation will be as a spreader.
Natural immunity? The percentage of those who get infected will survive, but while they’re they’re sick, they’re contagious. Their contagiousness gives the virus all it needs to mutate. We will always 2 steps behind.

[accountinglavidalaguna]

Many thanks again to Dr. O and the Cidrap team. We appreciate you!

[baby-boomer]

Thank you. I'm sorry for the man who died with one gallstone block as he waited in the ER for 9 hours to get surgery and then died bc he couldn't get help. It's excruciatingly painful. I know. I was very sick myself years ago with numerous gall stones. I got help immediately and was hospitalized for 5 days. So many un-vaxxed sick with delta took away this man's chance to live. Very tragic!

[mrm]

Your measured analysis, unwavering candor, and brilliant intellect are only exceeded by your loving heart and beautiful soul, which so clearly infuse your podcasts, Dr. Osterholm. Thank you for your constant leadership and moral support. Never driven by ego, the personal vulnerability you bravely reveal makes your message even more accessible and reassuring to those of us who are just as exhausted from navigating the unexpected
hairpin turns of this pandemic. With much gratitude, appreciation, and affection, I thank you.

[Starcraftghost]

I love it when you say: “my crystal ball”.

[deborahsmith-dumonceaux]

I live in Coos Bay, Oregon. We have been experiencing a surge for the first time since the pandemic began. I personally only know of a handful of people who have ever been tested for covid. I think I've had a mile case, as has my husband, but never bothered to be tested. I know many whose behavior is the same. Clearly cases are WAY under estimated.

[jimgraham]

Thanks Dr Osterholm, your advice and commentary is much appreciated.

[Paulsapartment]

Thank you for this! And the information you share! The truth is so vital these days!

[tommore]

This is a wonderfully measured review with a lot to offer us. Thank you.

[markgivens]

Excellent! Great set of data, care, and especially compassionate insight! Glad to hear global data and ‘crystal ball speculation’. Feel that many would benefit from meaningful communication about immune support, prophylaxis, and ‘at home’ treatments that are beneficial and reasonably safe. Feel that such messaging will benefit millions and greatly reduce risk, severity, and burdens on overwhelmed health care systems.

[How-iiml]

No need to give up yet, as nasal vaccine is in clinical trials. Analogous to home invasion, Block infection at the infectious nasal mucus membrane entry point. For now, use kn95 and N95s. There is still hope.

[MrOzzyCam]

I think Australia is the ideal test case. We dealt with the ancestral SARS-CoV2 in 2020 via non pharmaceutical interventions. We had an outbreak of the ancestral SARS-CoV2 in NSW early in 2020, non pharmaceutical interventions were mild by comparison to what we have been doing currently. NSW screwed up and let 100's of infected passengers into the heart of Sydney at the start 2020 from a cruise ship, the Ruby Princess and other cruise ships.

The current NSW outbreak was from a single case of the delta variant detected on the 16th of June 2021 from a driver who was infected transporting a FedEx aircrew to a hotel quarantine. We started hard lockdowns from June 2021. NSW won't start to ease lockdowns until at least 70% of the eligible population are fully vaccinated (IMHO that is far too low, with the increasing case numbers, due to lack of hospital capacity). We will be in lockdown till at least mid October. Even when lockdowns ease, we will still have universal mask mandates etc.

The delta variant just kept spreading. We have a whole raft of restrictions, closed schools, wear masks indoors and outside ($500 fine for not wearing one) gatherings limited to no more than 2 people, all non essential businesses have been closed. Massive testing now with an average 0.2% case test positivity rate. Contact tracing is a huge part of the Australian efforts though case numbers are getting so high that the contact tracing can't keep up.

Home antigen tests aren't available here. Tests are all PCR based. Vaccination for all healthcare workers is mandated as it is also being done for police. Australia now has 40% of the 16 years and up who are eligible have been fully vaccinated have been. We have around 40, 000 more cases recorded from June 2021 to today in Australia. That is 10, 000 more cases than we accumulated since the start of the pandemic till before June when we were at about 30, 000 accumulated cases.

I have been trying to convince Vincent Racaniello that delta is far more transmissible than the ancestral strain. He still feels that transmission is being driven by behavior. I have sent him the evidence of Australia. I can't convince Vincent (who I have great respect for) since he is a virologist not an epidemiologist he won't accept that delta is more infectious without the lab work, which can only be done in a BSL3 lab. He argues that even with the low CT values on a PCR that is not proof of the amount of infectious virus, since it is only showing RNA not viable virus. He wants to see specific tests on levels of viable infectious virus by lab work.

[jimgraham]

I agree entirely with views of Dr Theresa Schneider.

Kids of the pandemic era will have had a different educational experience not necessarily a less adequate one.

They will have learnt through on line and home education and be more technologically adept. They will have learnt the importance of resilience and sadly for some how to cope with suffering, in a way recent generations have not experienced.