Meteorological Discussion: Surprise Tornado Outbreak Strikes Indiana and Ohio - March 14, 2024

Meteorological overview of the surprise tornado outbreak that impacted portions of Indiana and Ohio on March 14, 2024. What was initially a conditional all-hazards risk turned into a full-fledged outbreak of damaging tornadoes, some of which were significant, from a bevy of discrete supercells that marched across the region. In this video, we'll discuss the meteorology behind this setup and some of the reasons why this setup may have outperformed expectations.

Thumbnail images via Chris Steinke and From Above Aerial.

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Contents

0:00 Introduction
3:22 Defending official forecasts
7:24 Meteorological breakdown
24:50 Radar analysis
28:43 Observed sounding analysis
34:54 Wrap-up

[Alferia]

When I kept seeing all the people complain about the SPC not upgrading the outlook, I was reminded of what Richard Thompson told me when I interviewed him back for my December 10th video,

"It's much easier to predict something if you already know the answer."

[jordanwhite]

Probabilities are probabilities. One area can have a 10% chance for tornados and produce zero, another can have a 1% chance and produce 10. That’s just how probability works. In weather and in every other aspect of the universe.

[baTonkaTruck]

I've studied meteorology as a hobby my whole adult life, and never, in any format, have I found a better presenter/educator than you. These videos are a perfect mix of broad meteorology, technical/scientific analysis and contextual queues about deeper concepts like CAPE, shear, soundings/hodographs, etc. Keep it up, this is really great stuff.

[zachsteiner]

Oh and the thing is, most people don’t really look at the SPC categorical outlooks. What matters is tornado watches and I’m pretty certain they did put one out for the affected regions. It would’ve been a bigger deal if there wasn’t a watch IMO. Also I personally never even said a word about the lack of the 10% hatched, I was more surprised they didn’t upgrade the hail risk further but no matter what, I understand forecasting is a very tough job.

[Khcoe]

100% agreed Trey. I think too many people neglect 1-2 out of 5 risks. A risk is a risk.

[blazernitrox]

So here's an amateur's two cents regarding the SPC's outlook. While I agree that the forecasters did the best they could with the information they had available, it shouldn't be left unsaid that the reason the forecasters _didn't_ put IN/OH under a higher risk was because of uncertainties in the models. I understand that the atmosphere is a complex beast, but compared to 50 years ago the NWS's forecasting capability is like some kind of black magic. Arguing that the forecast could have changed completely based on minute changes in the atmosphere shouldn't be taken so much as a rebuttal as a reminder that we need to keep pushing the boundaries of our understanding. Losing even a single life is a tragedy, and we need to keep pushing until that number becomes 0. We need to keep refining our models, keep finding ways to get useful data from our existing weather stations, and even build out more infrastructure if it means that one day, we can reach 0 fatalities.

[stacie]

Ozark, MO had a short-lived, recently confirmed EF0. I'm glad you did a video on this.

[jeretcarrotproductions]

Love how in depth these videos are, keep up the good work brother 💪

[Kelvinm]

This event reminded me of the 2016 Indiana/kokomo tornado outbreak in a sense that the spc didn’t particularly anticipate a tornado outbreak

[TRGTornado]

Well, I said I thought it would go MDT for hail and oh boi, 5.25 inch hail is something! Didn't expect the tornado side of things in Ohio! I was thinking Indianna and Illinois! Great video!

[markmichener]

I'm not one to kibitz all that much, but I can't deny I was surprised the outlook was not upgraded by the afternoon outlook. Surface features began deviating quickly from the progged obs. Happend quickly, but definitely noticeable by the afternoon.

[SgtShultzTO]

An excellent video Trey! Thank you for the insights, as someone who is working towards a meteorology degree I love hearing these discussions as it helps me feel more confident and helps me see more outcomes of convective setups. I am saddened by the death and destruction in the communities impacted, but hopefully seeing unexpected outcomes will help us advance our technology to help more people in the future.

[BattleshipOrion]

I live in Wapakoneta, and have to say that the city proper is fine. Still crazy to see this be national news. Last time my town made National news, Apollo 11 had landed.

[Purinmeido]

I did notice around 4:30 pm up here in the Chicago area that the clouds were moving way faster than earlier in the day. I hopped on Ryan’s stream and lo and behold

[NorthMsWx]

It is absolutely astounding that you’ve taken the time to like or reply to every single comment and applied meaningful discussion to each, no matter the temper. Major props to your professionalism and over all love for weather dialogue. I could hear the passion and subdued rage in the beginning monologue. Keep being awesome Trey, hopefully we can meet up one day in the plains and you can show me a few things. Mad I missed you at Alta vista.

[GitGoodGaming]

Im a truck driver who lives in Ohio. I was headed back to ohio that day Mar 14th. That weater turned REALLY fast.

The lightning that day was so beautiful. I've always been a fan of severe weather.

[flip]

This is why I love your videos, I'm slowly understanding more and more about the meteorology end of things because you explain things in a very concise and clear way. You have single-handedly taught me how to read a hodograph.

[emilyyoung]

I always get excited when I see a forecast or breakdown and was hoping there'd be one today! Thanks so much for teaching us!

[debsmith]

You just have to learn for yourself like I did. I have been a weather freak since childhood and had dreams of becoming a meteorologist however I'm not good at math. I learned a lot from watching the weather Channel and tornado videos. I live in Michigan and made the determination Central Eastern Indiana and West Central Ohio were very favorable for tornadoes. We drove to Indiana and ran right into it in the Muncie area. Several other stormchasers from Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Illinois were on that storm. Sometimes you have to take responsibility for yourself instead of relying on government agencies. I've seen weather do some freaky things so it's best to be prepared

[johng.]

Your information is so well done, came across a well known chasers description (RT) of the event and it was amateur to say the least. Kept saying he almost went to Ohio, instead of Arkansas. You are a true professional and the quality of your presentation is very much appreciated.