Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak Possible Tuesday (11-29) - November 27, 2022

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

November 27, 2022: A possibly significant severe weather event is set to unfold across the lower and mid-Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday, November 29. According to the latest Storm Prediction Center Day 3 forecast, this includes the potential for a tornado outbreak from western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, western Mississippi, and northern Louisiana, where an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) has been outlined. A long-duration, very favorable environment for discrete tornadic supercells will exist over a broad warm sector, which may foster multiple rounds of significant severe weather across the region.

Chapters
0:00 Introduction
1:03 Current observations
4:18 Model analysis (NAM, GFS, ECMWF)
30:03 Analog: December 10, 2021
35:22 Summary

[ConvectiveChronicles]

UPDATE: As of the 06z Monday outlook, SPC has upgraded Tuesday’s severe weather risk for far NE Louisiana, far SE Arkansas, and NW Mississippi to a MODERATE RISK (level 4 of 5) for the threat of supercells capable of producing long track/significant tornadoes.

[CentralPlainsChasing]

Everything about this video is great! Your thumbnail is clear, concise and straight to the point without all the clickbaiting stuff. The way you break the models down and explain things so clearly is appreciated! Especially with recent events regarding certain members of the weather community, it’s refreshing to see that there are still members of the community that don’t try to use clickbait and fear-mongering tactics to draw subscribers and view counts. Your video is purely factual and informative, which is what we need! You’ve got a subscriber in me!

[Bluekandy]

Thanks Trey! Appreciate having multiple perspectives across the community. Pattern recognition is ever important for these cold season events' storm modes.
- Andy with Ryan Hall =)

[Cameron_Chase]

Backyard chase for me here in Eastern AR! See y’all in the Delta🌪️

[cameronwood]

Amazing insight! Thank you for the extensive work you put into these videos, they’ve taught me so much as a person who is learning this as a hobby! You’re very concise, yet informative, and even with barely any prior meteorological knowledge, your channel has helped me learn so much. Keep it up, you’re potentially saving many lives by putting this information out days ahead of time! Thank you!

[jaredpatterson]

One day this channel is going to blow up! I learn so much, so I'm glad I found you. Thank you 😁 especially @ 9:34 / 18:15 / 27:15 because I have been stuck trying to see what setups allow discrete storm modes from looking at these maps

[Dahomeyian]

Hey I discovered your channel yesterday, you make incredible videos, some of the best on YouTube. And thank you, you have made my meteorological knowledge and my brain grow much bigger.

[psillycybin]

I really enjoy your channel!! I'm in NEA, and I've been able to get on two tornadoes in the last two years. I'm hoping 3 years in a row.

[MadWx]

Very glad you decided to do this forecast! Thank you

[twister]

Thanks for the analysis! I’m always amazed at just how much I learn about the little conditions and how they impact the main event.

[cassidylynn]

i love how you explain everything! it purely factual and informative! great video!!

[TallyTechandTroubleshooting]

This looks to be some serious weather. Thank you, Trey! Fantastic analysis as usual, my friend! Take care!!

[mikebowman]

I'm in north Mississippi 40 miles south of Memphis near Coldwater Ms alot of people out here live in mobile homes hope and pray no 🌪️ comes

[lacilynngraham_WXNRD]

This outlook gives me the same unsettling feeling that the Quad State supercell's outlook did. I would not be surprised if the outlook gets a higher risk as it gets closer to Tuesday.

[morganw.]

As always, top notch analysis. Love to see it! 👍

[sirensproject]

A lot of eyes on this system! Looking forward to the Tuesday video as well.

[fluffyraichu]

I am absolutely not ready for another big severe weather event. I’m still processing the Nov. 4th event

[dkoon]

Scary 😟 I hope everyone stays safe out there I know for me I’ll be watching the weather like a hawk

[big_yam]

Just saw the latest 0z HRRR tonight, yikes, isolated storms in a rich environment for tornadoes seems likely as of right now.

[pauldee]

I'm just learning about all this stuff, and that makes me very glad I found your channel! With the wide parameter space, do you find it in any way odd that the SPC has identified such a narrow corridor of enhanced severe risk (narrow means short east-west distance in this case)?