Why The U.S. Economy May Have A ‘Delayed’ Recession: Gary Shilling

The U.S. economy may still face a “delayed” recession, says financial analyst Gary Shilling. “We’ve had more strength in employment than probably is commensurate with the state of business,” Shilling told CNBC. In this episode of “The Bottom Line,” Shilling talks about what may be next for the economy — from key indicators and AI to globalization and the Presidential Election.

Chapters:
0:28 Investor sentiment
1:37 Recession risks
3:25 Labor market outlook
5:42 Presidential election vs. economy
6:53 Future of globalization
7:51 Investment strategy
8:54 AI disruption
10:08 Ongoing wars vs. global business

Script and Edit by: Andrea Miller
Production and Camera by: Charlotte Morabito
Additional Camera by: Jordan Smith
Supervising Producer: Lindsey Jacobson
Additional Footage: Getty Images

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Why The U.S. Economy May Have A ‘Delayed’ Recession: Gary Shilling

[HodgeChris]

On a brighter note, every recession comes with an equal chance in the fin-mrkt if you're early informed and equipped, I've read folks amass up to 7 figures during these times, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Truthfully, I’d need guide please for a boomer like me to attain such amount for retirement, we definitely need to benefit from this situation somehow.

[diane.moore-]

The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

[Robertgriffinne]

Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

[belljoe]

It is a government inspired crisis this time. The Treasury have to sell Bonds to cover the trade imbalance and the government spending imbalance. In order to sell them they have to raise interest rates and the old long-term, low risk, low interest, AAA investments (including Treasury Bonds), held by the banks (often due to government regulatory policy), become next to worthless. The next milestone is the 15th when the government issue a new batch of Bonds.

[brianwhitehawker]

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.

[EverlyndPerez]

Given worries over recession and potential interest rate hikes, with my $600, 000 stock portfolio down 25%, how can I hedge it to potentially profit?

[BillAdamson-bpff]

The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.

[mesutserim]

Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly

[Joseph-zwsb]

Great video, I have a quick question. I am an aspiring trader, I am looking study some traders and earn off their expertise rather than investing myself and lose money emotionally. Whats your take on copy trading? Do people really make money? Just looking for some reassurance.
Thank you!

[RossiPopa]

A recession is currently the "most likely consequence for the economy, " and I cannot fathom becoming a victim of circumstances, with inflation at a four-decade high. In two years, I plan to retire, and my target retirement fund is $967, 000. How can I assure this? What steps can I take?

[MotorCityPhoenix]

Well, if you keep saying there's going to be a recession, you're bound to be right eventually 😂

[clementdan]

Current situation:
1. Stocks are trading like the Fed already cut rates
2. Bonds are trading like rate cuts aren't happening
3. Gold is trading like we are on track for a "soft landing"
4. Oil prices are trading like we are entering a recession
5. Housing markets are trading like nothing is happening
Nothing adds up here.

[Derik-fkbu]

There are so many ways to get something like this done, what’s really important is finding the right person for it, I hope you become successful in trading.a good trading system would put you through many days of success.

[rainwear]

What a wonderful guest. He should be on more often. Very refreshing no nonsense analysis.

[santinx]

Nobody is saying this so I will say it: what a delight of a host! So cheerful and candid.

[emersonstagnitta]

The recession is not already here? My holdings are down by about 40%, things are generally more expensive now. Are they implying it can get worse?

[danieldinnell]

Remember a time when the borders were secure, the world was at peace, gas was cheap and plentiful, groceries were affordable, mortgage interest rates were 2.5%, and the economic outlook was optimistic. I sure do miss those good old days from just over three years ago.

[Yarhnam]

Not A ‘Delayed’ Recession but it's a A ‘Delayed’ Informations to public

[FriedLexman]

A market crash without plans to build more housing units is just pain for the middle class. Looks like thats where we're headed

[JasonA]

Its only a recession for companies. The average American has been in a recession for a few years now. When prices doubled on a lot of groceries it began.