What's driving Russia's interest in Africa? | Counting the Cost

As the Soviet Union imploded, it turned its back on the African continent in the 1990s. But now, under President Vladimir Putin, Russia is once again making a push to engage.

Some of the reasons: Western sanctions against Russia; its pivot to China which has not been a success; hopes for billions of dollars in Middle East investment which have not arrived in the quantities expected; and the value of African votes at the United Nations.

So what is Russia doing in Africa? Some of it includes: oil and gas deals with Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria and Mozambique; nuclear deals with Rwanda and Zambia; and a big supplier of arms to countries including Egypt, Sudan and Angola.

Russian trade with Africa rose 26 percent to $17.4bn in 2017.

"I think it's about finding every export opportunity that [Russia] can," says Charles Robertson, the global chief economist at Russian investment bank, RENCAP. He says the relationship includes political and military aspects, with one in seven of all Russian exports to Africa being arms related.

"If you take the first 5-10 years of Putin's rule in Russia, [there was] very little focus on Africa, very little interest," he says. "What seems to have shifted is with the sanctions getting imposed by the US and the EU in 2014/15, we then see Russia decide that it needs to build links around the world: to China, India, the Gulf ... and now to Africa too."

"I think the West is much more concerned with China at the moment and their engagement [in Africa]," he adds. "They are only beginning to pay attention to what Russia might be doing."

Turkey: Between Russia's deal and US sanctions
The prospect of further US sanctions on Turkey over its decision to buy Russia's S-400 missile technology have been delayed for now. President Donald Trump blamed the impasse on the Obama administration, saying Turkey had been treated unfairly by not being allowed to buy US Patriot missiles.

However, others in the US administration said sanctions would go ahead if Turkey took delivery of the S-400.

"The different pillars of the US administration, and also Congress, are intent on imposing those sanctions," says Sinan Ulgen, the chairman of Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies.

"It remains to be seen to what extent Trump can actually deliver on his promise made to the Turkish president ... to actually prevent or block these potential sanctions."

If sanctions do go ahead, it could destabilise the Turkish economy. It would raise Turkey's risk perception, and also have implications for the country's defence industry, Ulgen says.

"It will also have an impact on the F-35 programme whereby the US has clearly stated if the S-400 come to Turkey, the US would stop the delivery of the F-35 aircraft to Turkey but also exclude Turkish defence companies from the production line of the F-35. So there are many different aspects of possible impact."

The first shipment of the Russian S-400 missile system has arrived in Turkey, according to a statement by the Turkish defence ministry on July 12 - moving the NATO member closer to a new standoff with the US.

Can Google and Apple change the gaming industry?
It's estimated that more than 2.5 billion people play computer games every year, with e-sports getting an audience of 458 million a year.

By 2025, the video game industry - curently dominated by XBox, PlayStation and Nintendo - is expected to be worth some $300bn. And that's why some of tech's biggest players are introducing rival services. Google's parent company Alphabet will launch Stadia, and Apple will introduce Arcade this year.

"They already have revolutionised the games industry once," Vili Lehdonvirta, from the Oxford Internet Institute, says about the tech giants.

"Apple App store and Google Play store popularised mobile gaming and the micro-transaction and advertising revenue models for games."

He says Arcade appears to be more complementary to Apple's existing offerings, whereas Stadia seems to be "a much more ambitious effort".

"They are trying to envelope the existing platforms and become a platform of their own," he says.

Lehdonvirta says although Stadia is by no means the first cloud-based gaming service, it is the one that is hoping to largely eliminate the time-lag that restricts other similar services. "It remains to be seen whether they can solve that problem."

[artwellmareya]

The scramble for Africa will never stop untill Africa rises up .

[abdihassan]

Russia Welcome back to Africa particularly to Somalia. Russia and Somalia had a long relationship in 1960s and 1970s. We want Russia come back.

[themac]

It's simple, African economies are on the rise, and China, Russia and India are all getting a head start in terms of partnership. West Africa just dropped the French currency for one single west African currency with east Africa following. The signing of the African free trade agreement will increase manufacturing and trade amongst Africans. China and Russia are looking at the future

[dmarion]

Their gold and diamonds, precious stones are motive enough, especially if not declared when taken out of country.

[lamecknghidileko]

Russia never invaded an African country

[faebalina]

And Africans are also watching all this closely and are aware that this is about resources.

[hassanomardin]

Putin is a narrow minded politician. I believe he is going to play a negative role in Africa.

[michaelfung]

Russia needs to give up on Europe. Europe has rejected Russia for centuries.

[husseinyusuf]

Africa's entrepreneurship nation is watching the Continents markets from the horn of the Continent with big microscope!

[tonyadj]

We need very stable electricity all across Africa....iron and steel industries..roads and them light up Africa....

[deynna]

I came here to answer the question: Africa has most of the resources and they need people to sell weapons to

[SmileJoy]

Russia is decades late on this. They should have listened to Castro.

[thequietman]

Well it's probably not resources as that's already been plundered by the US & UK

[segoayah]

With cheap oil from Iran?! Putin or China will escort the Iran oil tankers?!

[ArtoCodes]

Russia's goal is not business! Although it's probably just a bonus for both countries! The Russians are interested in Africa being a successful continent in the future.
Their goal is to stabilize the African continent. You will understand this a little later.
Now they're just preparing the world for a new Empire. It is important for them that Europe is safe and rich. These are their natural allies and common culture.
To do this, it is necessary to restore order in Africa. That is what they will do. Putin has said many times that it is necessary to help ordinary people in Africa.

[tshepomolefe]

South Africa doesn't have nuclear power with Russia. They turn it down because it was too expensive.

[warrentanquest]

Africa has every right to do business or engage with countries that guarantee mutual benefits.

[creed]

Russia might be the best option for Africa ..

[angelobugini]

It's a remarkable report! I truly did appreciate it so much. Thanks a lot for sharing! Keep it up!

[dennisedwards]

It is much better for our people to deal with China, and maybe a little bit with Russia, but most of all Africa is big enough to trade with their own people.