This is How China Could Invade Taiwan

The People's Liberation Army of China is ramping up preparations for a full scale invasion of Taiwan. However, the danger could come from an enemy attack along the less defended East Coast of Taiwan, which would cut foreign supplies from reaching the island. China could be using its entire arsenal, a combination of saturation missile strikes to defeat enemy air defense, an aggressive air campaign to target decision making centres, as well as amphibious operations using PLA Marine Brigades. The Chinese Navy will also play a crucial role in sealing off the island, and securing the safe passage of amphibious landing crafts.

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[Feherlofia]

I'm always baffled when professional military analysts and experts don't take civilian vessels into account... the French army used city taxis to transport their troops to the Marne in 1914 and the Israelis used school buses and ice cream trucks(!!!) as troop transports to reach the Suez Canal in 1956

[rainz]

As an Indonesian I'm happy that my country doesn't allow any foreign military bases on our soil. So Indonesia could stay neutral in a conflict between China and Taiwan (USA)

[beyourownsolutions]

At one point a long time ago, I was the Marine Corps Pubic Relations Rep for the Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific, Admiral Larson. I am continually impressed with your ability to sort thru bullshit and make logical assessments of situations. I also like your humor, which makes it more palatable. You missed your calling in life. You are a smart man. Keep it up. I would enjoy a campfire conversation over a beer with you. Keep up the good work.

[doktertjiftjaf]

The Chinese high command watching this: "interesting, interesting..."

[RetreatHell]

Going to be fun in social media when everyone dumps Ukraine flags and stand with Taiwan lmao.

[albertmijares]

PLA have thousands of considerable large fishing boats and civilian vessels. There is a reason why PLA didn't bother to build amphibious landing vessels.

[GMATveteran]

What was described in this video could have been the PLA's war plan *IF* forced reunification took place in the 2010s. However, in the 2020s & beyond, such a war plan would be largely obsolete, as it doesn't take into account 2 key PLA capabilities - long range MLRS & drones. The opening "missile" campaign to execute the SEAD mission would probably not use "thousands" of missiles as described in the video, but rather a combination of a few hundred missiles, coupled with long-range MLRS (e.g. PCL-191 - which has enough range to reach the majority of TW from the Mainland), as well as thousands (or even tens of thousands) of Kamikaze UCAVs (something roughly comparable to the Russian Geran UCAVs & Lancet-like loitering munitions). Those assets are far cheaper than SRBM/MRBMs & will wear down TW's air defenses much quicker. To the extent that missiles are used in the opening phases, they're likely to be used only on high-value targets such as C4ISR nodes & fixed infrastructure (e.g. the US PAVE PAWS radar on TW, airstrips, ammo depots, command posts, etc.).

Moreover, I doubt the PLAN even needs any active ships (let alone large capital ships) to impose a blockade of TW's ports, even its coastal defense anti-ship missile batteries have more than enough range to put all of TW's west coast ports under a missile blockade. To the extent that it needs any ships to blockade the east coast of TW, a large number of small fast attack missile boats (e.g. Type 022), combined with SSKs & UUVs will have more than enough range & firepower to do the job. The large capital ships - be it the DDGs, FFGs, CVs, or SSNs - will primarily be a support force for the aforementioned smaller, cheaper assets, & also have the responsibility of holding off any foreign intervention force, if such intervention should occur.

With regards to the PLAAF, I don't think their cross-strait patrols should be any indicator of how they'll fight an actual war. circling TW in patrol flights is a POLITICAL move designed to undermine any notion of TW "sovereignty". In an actual war, they don't need to fly anywhere close to TW, they'll gain air supremacy through crippling the RoCAF on the ground, & engage in BVR combat vs RoCAF remnants with the support of AWACS & loyal wingman UCAVs.

The initial amphibious landing will likely make heavy use of drones as well - UGVs would make up much of the 1st wave of landings for drawing fire, demining, & putting down suppressive fire to avoid casualties. UCAVs such as the CH-series, armed with ATGMs & glide bombs, will be used to provide CAS vs RoCA armored vehicles.

Finally, if forced reunification doesn't happen until the 2030s, then we'll have to take into account yet another technology - PLA/PLAN railgun artillery. But for now, it's still way too early to speculate about that, since the PLA is still in the early stages of miniaturization & power management for such a technology.

Lastly, I doubt any aspect of the operation would be a "surprise" for either side. There will be heavy mobilization done on both sides prior to the conflict, & both sides will have mapped out every single inch of the opponent's assets. So the side with the superior firepower & more survivable C4ISR will be the victor.

Bottom line - in the 2010s if the Mainland was forced to invade, it would have had to use much of the big ticket capital assets described in this video. However, we're well past that stage now, & the PLA has the ability to use much cheaper & more expendable unmanned assets to execute all phases of a forced reunification op. It will also reserve its big ticket capital assets for the real fight against the foreign intervention forces. To that end, the longer the Mainland waits for reunification, the cheaper it becomes for them; the military balance of power is getting increasingly & inevitably lopsided in favor of the Mainland. Perhaps this is why the US is trying to provoke the Mainland into a war. It knows that time is on the PRC's side.

[Putins_shirt]

Now do the US: How could the US invade Texas?

[jasonsung]

I am a Taiwanese. The issue between Taiwan and China is political, not military. China does not need to invade Taiwan to complete the work of unifying Taiwan. Putin is a smart man, and he immediately saw that China could solve the Taiwan issue without using force. Besides, Deng Xiaoping also said, "Chinese people don't fight Chinese people". If you really need to use force, there is a limit. The east coast of Taiwan is rocky and the west coast is sandy, so the ports that accept natural gas, oil and coal are all on the west coast. And the stupid Taiwanese government will decommission all nuclear power plants in 2025 under the pretext of environmental protection. So China only needs to block the southern and northern ends of the Taiwan Strait with smart mines, and Taiwan will go back to the stone age within 1 month due to lack of electricity, because the stock of natural gas is less than 2 weeks, and natural gas power generation accounts for 50% of Taiwan's total power generation. While the People's Liberation Army has sea and air superiority, Taiwan simply does not have the ability to clear mines. Therefore, without energy, the 23 million people in Taiwan cannot live. More and more people advocate negotiation. As long as they sit at the negotiating table, the possibility of armed conflict will be reduced. The other method is simpler, which is also Putin's method, and he made it very clear at the press conference in 2021. Simply put, by 2028, Taiwan's total GDP will be less than 4% of China's. China can "buy" Taiwan with money. As for how to "buy" Taiwan, it is already in progress!
"Surrender the enemy without fighting"---Sun Tzu's Art of War.
In addition, if war really breaks out, the United States will immediately evacuate the U.S. troops from the Okinawa base to Hawaii. The Japanese constitution also stipulates that Japan can only defend itself and cannot send troops to attack other countries, so Taiwan can only rely on itself.

[djmable]

Dude I love this channel so dam much. You are fucking GREAT at teaching history and going over certain scenarios for war breaking out. I’m sure what you do takes LOADS of research. Thank you very much.

[TheMADMAN]

Love your videos man, I watch and enjoy in every single one. Would love to see your analysis of Yugoslav air defense tactics vs nato in 99.

[roach]

I believe China would not try an "invasion" they would probably just try blockading the island to get what they want. Amphibious assaults are extremely risky and also since they see Taiwan as part of China and the Taiwanese people as their own citizens they would want to avoid destruction as much as they can.

[wgwjurz]

This dude is one of the best YouTubers in this genre. So engaging. Incredible. Been watching for a year now.

[wrayjohnson]

Every time I watch one of your videos I am impressed. And this comes from a retired Air Force officer who has taught in two of the advanced warfighting schools of the DOD.

[inikstb]

Another Amazing Video of History Legends. Thanks History Legends.

[nemiw]

Steps 1. Flatten Military instalations. 2. Surround Taiwan with Submarines, declare it a warzone 3. Blockade them and chill until they give up.

[WeebUnionWU]

Decades and decades of training but the Ukraine war has shown us that doesn't really matter in comparison to combat experience. Let's see if they'll be able to execute their heavy planning or if it'll fall apart at the very first steps

[WakeUpDead]

Imagine this video becoming the next "I Told you so" video in the future

[cbhlde]

Thanks to Conflict of Nations for sponsoring this Legend! ;)

[MitchConnor]

America is not fighting for Ukraine, they are just supplying them .... why do you think America is gonna be different with Taiwan ?