New American Military Aid for Ukraine - What's in the package and what impact will it have?

In early 2022, the US quickly emerged as one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers, supporting Kyiv with everything from artillery to armour & millions of rounds of artillery ammunition.

In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places.

Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022.

Patreon:

Relevant Reading/sourcing:

H.R.815 - Making emergency supplemental appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, and for other purposes.

Estonian MoD: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat

IMF - Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility - Ukraine

US DoD on recent USAI and Ukraine Contact Group meeting

Reporting on Ukraine's ATACMS usage

Article on mentioned Kyiv spending protests:

Featured demonstration of shifting US policy position on aid:

Featured article reporting the Pentagon replacement deficit

US Congress passing aid

UK sending largest ever package to Ukraine

Reporting on Russian offensive

Reporting on Russian budget passage

Featured article on Putin's war goals and expectations

Macron warning Europe cannot rely on the USA

Ukraine needing $3B per month - (reporting, see IMF source for more detail)

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay
00:08:28 — What's In The Package
00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa
00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do
00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example
00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death
00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability
00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic
01:03:21 — Channel Update00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay
00:08:28 — What's In The Package
00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa
00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do
00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example
00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death
00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability
00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic
01:03:21 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Well, after months of back and forth debate in the USA, here we are. This topic was one that needed to be revised more or less up to the point of final release as follow up announcements were made, but hopefully this gives a decent picture of the scale of what has just been committed and what it will (and won't) do for Ukraine. The broad takeaway is that from a purely materiel centred perspective, there might be enough here to make a difference once deliveries start in earnest - but it isn't an answer to all of Ukraine's requirements.

Barring any more major and sudden developments, we should be back to the regular topic list next week. Thank you all for your ongoing engagement and support.

[tonyharpur]

'Your existential struggle for survival is important to us....etc..' Absolutely priceless!

[ShornDunlevy]

I would just like to point out that their are multiple videos of lectures/talks/personal remarks of high-ranking British officers (Brigadiers and generals) referring the public to Perun as a reliable source accessible to non-experts.

So congratulations on that Perun.

[polarstorm]

Can't stress enough how much i apreciate it that the presentation just "starts". No "hello", no "intro" no nothing. The world would be a better place if more Youtubers would make it that way.

[bosoerjadi]

Lol, the adage of 'amateurs talking systems, professionals talking logistics' just got expanded with 'experts talk accounting'..

[swj]

The best part of waking up
Is Perun in your feed.

[windowdoog]

“No other donor, not even the Russian military” Perun comin out hot!

[ShellRobin]

Your closings remark about overeconomizing reminds me of popular sayings in Ukrainians volunteering circle: refusing to give 1 dollar to military efforts will lead to the need of giving 5 dollars to humanitarian one.

[jimtalbott]

My half sister and her husband both work in an ammo factory here in the US. Let’s just say they’ve been….”busy” the last few years. OT has not been a problem.
Got themselves a nice new VW recently.

[macmcleod]

The United States was not designed with bipartisanship in mind. George Washington warned about the risk of forming partisan political parties at all. The system was designed for a non-partisan Representatives with no political parties.

And that concept pretty much failed by the second presidency.

[Ramschat]

Looking at the artillery numbers, Europe has been crucial to keep some modicum of supply going while the US was struggling with internal politics. I can't imagine how horrible these last months could have been if the EU has also abstained from sending shells

[AHouse]

There is a petition going on in Lithuania to increase government spending towards defense to 4% GDP. Other countries should probably look into increasing their spending towards arms production as well. We need to think long term. Produce what UA needs in our own countries.

[FoxtrotYouniform]

Many moons ago during GWOT I spent 3 weeks at an Italian controlled fire base and I _still_ dream of the food their pop up tent chow hall made. Seriously, it was all that good.

[GuardianComplex]

Seriously though, who put a line for "stuff" in their procurement budget?

[JoanEhly-ff]

" A billion here a billion there. Pretty soon your talking about real money."

[thomassecurename]

There’s 1+K comments. Mine overall are insignificant. I give myself one exception, no one is your equal in analysis, projection, and information content. You are unique and invaluable. Poulsbo, Washington

[artemdashynych]

The bit about the cheese pizza mre sparking a debate for Italian justification to commit friendly fire against their American counterparts had me fucking rolling.

idk what i love more about Perun videos-- the above and beyond in-depth research-- or the snide jokes

[casbot]

One *instant effect* of the aid package passing was that Ukraine could stop rationing ammunition straight away, as they knew they would soon be getting more delivered.
So Ukraine could start burning through their backup stocks they'd kept to last for a long while.

[ianmcleod]

There’s actually $1.6 billion in FMF for Ukraine and another $8 billion in FMF for Ukraine, NATO, and non-NATO allies, but that $8 billion is shoved way into the back of the bill and exists as amended text to some other preexisting policy, so no one really talks about it. There’s also another $600 million in various drawdown authorities. That $6 billion USAI announcement came from remaining USAI funds from previous bills, so they haven’t touched the new $14 billion in USAI yet. And similarly, they’ve used $1 billion of the remaining $3.9 billion of PDA, so they actually have $2.9 billion of preexisting PDA left + the $8 billion in new PDA. Cheers mate!

[positroll]

One of the bilateral agreements skipped is GER buying 100k 122mm from Bulgaria for delivery by end of April.
Also, with the pipeline reopened, Ukraine can empty its remaining reserve ammo stocks.
So the arti situation on the front should be improving soon.