Why Starship Might Not Land Humans On Artemis III

Earlier this month SpaceX released a few new videos of Lunar Starship Raptor testing. This included a descent burn test along with a chilled raptor ignition simulating the journey through space. Besides these examples, there have been a few other instances of progress on the lunar Starship. This makes sense as the company needs to have a working lunar variant ready by Artemis III where they plan to land humans on the surface.

At least that was the plan, however, new timelines and work within NASA mean Artemis III might not land humans on the surface at all. This would practically negate the lunar Starship for that specific mission as its main purpose is transporting humans from lunar orbit to the surface and back. This comes in addition to possible delays as the 2025 mission date becomes more ambitious by the day.

Recent comments also highlight that some NASA officials are worried about the progress of SpaceX’s lunar lander. A system that still has quite a bit of work left before being ready for a Moon landing. Here I will go more in-depth into the progress on a lunar Starship, NASA’s concerns, possible Artemis III changes, and more.

Credit:

Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:56 - Progress Concerns
3:21 - Physical Progress

[censortube]

Forget it, Starship is totally unsuited, they need to design a lunar lander like the one we had, just beefed up, like Orion is over the command module

[Starshipsforever]

I'm not sure why, but you got an Apollo program context slapped on you by the idiot YT algorithm.

[pipersall]

Thank you for your interesting topics and quality discussions and presentations.

[plainText]

Have we seen ANY progress on the landing engines? It seems like there has been basically no development on HLS exclusive hardware. Basically all the testing mentioned here seems to be on hardware that is also planned to be used to launch Starlink satellites.

[rpereira_pt_uk]

By the way thank you for continuing to kick out such amazing work🎉

[DaleWheeler]

I was startled when NASA chose a vehicle with Starships "aspect ratio" as a lander on an unimproved surface. Very illogical. Will not surprise me if plans are changed and another, more suitable, lander is used instead.

[sandbridgekid]

Artemis V will likely be the first Lunar Landing mission but without Starship. Ability to LAND on the Moon should have been a higher criteria than COST.

[Holographic_Meatloaf]

How does NASA not have the authority to override these government agencies that are clearly delaying the starship program??!!?

[RobertoMaurizzi]

Again, I don't see the reason NASA should proceed with a useless mission instead of waiting for a few months (if it'll really be a few months...) to have a lander. Unless of course the problem is closing off the launch in 2025 so that Boeing and Lockheed Martin can be paid...

[davidstevenson]

NASA has the 2nd Option Lunar Lander program, for Artemis 5, 2029 announced in May (post-April 20).
The contract was awarded to the National Teams "Blue Moon" lander.
Bill Nelson stated during that news conference, "We want back-up".
SpaceX haven't been served notice by NASA but they have been handed their hat.🎩🚪👋

[Mentaculus]

It looks like the more “fail forward” one side has, the more “fallback” cushion the other side/s gets! NASA might not be all that unhappy to continue down the path/s they have selected with the options to call “audibles” that keep NASA looking relatively good.

[zmblion]

If the government agencies would step out of the way progress could be done..

[Vindictus]

It's a bit rich, for a government agency to be concerned about the schedule of a private company - being throttled by another government agency...

[Magic_Engineering]

Maybe picking the most complicated lunar lander was a bad idea, especially if its being sold as the cheapest

[SLagonia]

SpaceX's hardware is fine - It just can't get through the red tape.

[absenttk]

Considering the amount of progress made on starship in the last two years, isn't it a bit hypocritical of a Nasa/SLS official to make those kinds of comments when SLS has performed one launch, built only two vehicles, are missing a launch platform, are missing an upper stage, and won't be flying crew until late next year at the earliest. First, your own house in order, before you look outside?

[connecticutaggie]

So, why does Starship require so many launches to fly humans when the SLS and Orion only required ONE flight before it will carry humans and it will incur way more human risk. It has to launch humans to orbit, carry them to the moon, carry them back from the moon, and bring the safely back to earth. Starship just has to land them on the moon and bring them back to lunar orbit.

[i-love-space]

Even if the first American return-to-the-moon uses a different lander, the Starship will be an essential component of the long term habitation of the moon by astronauts, since it can land so many tons of cargo to the surface.
All of that effort by SpaceX will be essential for the future of their Mars Program, since it will pioneer orbital refueling, long term human life support, reliability of systems like the ECS outside of the Earth's magnetosphere. Preservation of propellants from boil-off in deep space on a long duration mission is another thing they need to master.
All those people, Elon included, that have this idea that an interplanetary mission is just something you design, build and go, and everything just works is fantasyland. I just hope everything gets thoroughly tested so that we don't lose a lot of astronauts during our expansion to the moon and Mars.
Current civilization has a weak stomach for casualties, unlike the 1600s - 1800s, when hundreds of colonists and explorers would die. Our interplanetary exploration and travel technologies are about on par with the technology of those days of exploring the earth.

[goodgremlinmedia]

The government program is being delayed by the government. Typical

[waynemapp]

Nasa is going to end up using the National Team for the lander for the first few Moon landings. The Starship HLS is just way too difficult, at least in the near term (before 2030). Just to get the Starship HLS to the Moon involves refuelling hundreds of tonnes of fuel in LEO. That is going to take years to prove.
It was extraordinary that Nasa chose Starship in the first place for Artemis III. Though in the meantime the National Team has substantially improved their design. Now they just need to build it. i imagine they have done a fair bit already.