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Will Russia use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? Putin's Decision, US Reaction & the New START Treaty
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Is Russia going to start using nuclear weapons in Ukraine? That's a question that a lot of people are asking right now after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be suspending its nuclear weapons treaty with the US. That may sound pretty ominous but what does it actually mean?
The New START treaty was signed by Russia and the US in 2010. It's main purpose is to limit the number of nuclear warheads that each country is allowed to deploy. ‘Deploy’ basically means having the warheads out in position and ready to go.
More than 90% of the world's nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the US but only a small fraction of those are actually active and deployed. The treaty caps deployed warheads at 1550, which might sound like a lot, but is actually far fewer than what was active during the Cold War. Another key part of the treaty is that it allows for 18 on-site inspections every year, which basically allows both countries to keep an eye on the other to make sure they're following the rules. The thing is, this part of the treaty hadn't really been working as intended for the past couple of years.
Meanwhile, Russia said that it was being blocked from making inspections because various sanctions were blocking its inspectors from getting visas and being able to travel to the US. So, the suspension of this treaty didn’t exactly come as a big surprise to a lot of experts. In fact, some were actually expecting the US to be the first ones to pull out.
The question that a lot of people are asking now, is: Does this mean that Russia, or even the US, are going to start using nuclear weapons?
According to a wide range of experts, at this stage, it’s very, very unlikely and also that’s not really what this move to suspend the treaty is trying to achieve. Right now there really isn't an incentive for either side to start using nuclear weapons. Both sides are well aware of the absolute devastation that would be caused by nuclear war.
Now, there are some people that argue that Putin is irrational or delusional and that he might not care about the risks or impacts of nuclear war, but, the flip side to that argument, is that there's a big difference pushing propaganda in public and genuinely dismissing the reality of nuclear war.
Even if we disregard all of that, using nuclear weapons would still be a huge strategic risk from Russia's perspective because it could also easily turn its war in Ukraine into a direct war with the entirety of NATO. And despite the fact that Putin continues to tell the public that Russia is, pretty much, already at war with NATO, Putin is aware that there's a big difference between NATO supplying Ukraine with military aid and having to directly fight the combined military forces of NATO.
So, what is this treaty suspension actually about? According to a lot of experts, it's basically just diplomatic negotiating tactics.
Both countries have signalled that they haven't been happy with how the other country has been approaching the treaty. So, suspending the deal is seen by some as a way to force both sides to come back to the negotiating table. There's also the argument that this is a way for Russia to give the United States another reason to question its ongoing support of Ukraine.
The final question here, is: what happens next? One of the big fears, if the treaty does end getting scrapped and not replaced, is that both countries will start making and deploying more nuclear warheads.
But, again, that doesn't mean that that's what Russia wants, because if another arms race did kick off, Russia simply wouldn't be able to financially keep up with the United States.
Overall, this announcement obviously isn't great news for the future of nuclear arms reduction, but that doesn't mean that we won't see the US and Russia come to another agreement.
In the very same speech that he announced the suspension, Putin made a very big point to emphasise that Russia didn't want to scrap the deal, just temporarily put it on ice and pretty much immediately after the announcement, the US said it would be willing to restart talks with Russia at any time. - Nicholas Maher
𝗕𝗧𝗡 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗬 𝗣𝗔𝗚𝗘
𝗖𝗨𝗥𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗨𝗟𝗨𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗞𝗦
Modern History, Unit 4: The Modern World since 1945: (ACHMH188)
The development of post war peace movements: (ACHMH224)
The New START treaty was signed by Russia and the US in 2010. It's main purpose is to limit the number of nuclear warheads that each country is allowed to deploy. ‘Deploy’ basically means having the warheads out in position and ready to go.
More than 90% of the world's nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the US but only a small fraction of those are actually active and deployed. The treaty caps deployed warheads at 1550, which might sound like a lot, but is actually far fewer than what was active during the Cold War. Another key part of the treaty is that it allows for 18 on-site inspections every year, which basically allows both countries to keep an eye on the other to make sure they're following the rules. The thing is, this part of the treaty hadn't really been working as intended for the past couple of years.
Meanwhile, Russia said that it was being blocked from making inspections because various sanctions were blocking its inspectors from getting visas and being able to travel to the US. So, the suspension of this treaty didn’t exactly come as a big surprise to a lot of experts. In fact, some were actually expecting the US to be the first ones to pull out.
The question that a lot of people are asking now, is: Does this mean that Russia, or even the US, are going to start using nuclear weapons?
According to a wide range of experts, at this stage, it’s very, very unlikely and also that’s not really what this move to suspend the treaty is trying to achieve. Right now there really isn't an incentive for either side to start using nuclear weapons. Both sides are well aware of the absolute devastation that would be caused by nuclear war.
Now, there are some people that argue that Putin is irrational or delusional and that he might not care about the risks or impacts of nuclear war, but, the flip side to that argument, is that there's a big difference pushing propaganda in public and genuinely dismissing the reality of nuclear war.
Even if we disregard all of that, using nuclear weapons would still be a huge strategic risk from Russia's perspective because it could also easily turn its war in Ukraine into a direct war with the entirety of NATO. And despite the fact that Putin continues to tell the public that Russia is, pretty much, already at war with NATO, Putin is aware that there's a big difference between NATO supplying Ukraine with military aid and having to directly fight the combined military forces of NATO.
So, what is this treaty suspension actually about? According to a lot of experts, it's basically just diplomatic negotiating tactics.
Both countries have signalled that they haven't been happy with how the other country has been approaching the treaty. So, suspending the deal is seen by some as a way to force both sides to come back to the negotiating table. There's also the argument that this is a way for Russia to give the United States another reason to question its ongoing support of Ukraine.
The final question here, is: what happens next? One of the big fears, if the treaty does end getting scrapped and not replaced, is that both countries will start making and deploying more nuclear warheads.
But, again, that doesn't mean that that's what Russia wants, because if another arms race did kick off, Russia simply wouldn't be able to financially keep up with the United States.
Overall, this announcement obviously isn't great news for the future of nuclear arms reduction, but that doesn't mean that we won't see the US and Russia come to another agreement.
In the very same speech that he announced the suspension, Putin made a very big point to emphasise that Russia didn't want to scrap the deal, just temporarily put it on ice and pretty much immediately after the announcement, the US said it would be willing to restart talks with Russia at any time. - Nicholas Maher
𝗕𝗧𝗡 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗬 𝗣𝗔𝗚𝗘
𝗖𝗨𝗥𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗨𝗟𝗨𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗞𝗦
Modern History, Unit 4: The Modern World since 1945: (ACHMH188)
The development of post war peace movements: (ACHMH224)
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